COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[robbieh]

and yet the number of death related cases had already started to fall a week before lockdown in England. Go figure.

Not quite sure what you mean. As of 13th March Greece had 1 recorded death. Subsequently it has risen to 143.

 

[purplenose]

This,we assumed immunity,nearly four months on an nobody will confirm immunity still and this virus is throwing up surprises everyday

Exactly imagine having let the thing run through the population killing many tens of thousands more than it has, only to discover it came back a year later if not before promptly reinfecting thousands who had had it last time and killing the same amount again.

That was the risk some very high level people were advocating. That worries me greatly.

 

[SWP's back]

A very slanted and one-eyed article that seems more concerned with making points about the constitution than with people's wellbeing.

Was a fucking idiotic thing to post.

 

[robbieh]

I'd imagine Spain Italy France and the UK have a hell of a lot more people visiting them than Greece in February and March too.

Probably true, but as I say they started taking action as soon as the first case, not first death, occurred. They had taken notice of first China and later Italy and made the decision to keep the numbers as low as possible.

In addition they can if they keep their borders closed start with the new normal a earlier and more safely than we are going to do.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Karen, let's do some very easy maths together ok?

Im going to use the term mean.


1) What is the mean time between infection and symptoms?
2) What is the mean time between symptoms and death?

answer 1) 5 days
answer 2) 18 days

add them together = 23 days.

So from catching it to dying takes on average 23 days.


3) When did the most people in English hospitals die from covid (the peak)?

answer 3) 8th April.

4) when did they catch it?

answer 4) 23 days before the 8th April which is 16th of March

Here comes the big one!

When did the UK go into "lockdown"?

I'll let you answer that yourself and see if you can draw any conclusions.

I apologise in advance for wandering into the middle of this but what is your conclusion based on the timescales you outlined?

 

[Scottyboi]

Probably true, but as I say they started taking action as soon as the first case, not first death, occurred. They had taken notice of first China and later Italy and made the decision to keep the numbers as low as possible.

In addition they can if they keep their borders closed start with the new normal a earlier and more safely than we are going to do.

All plays a huge part though which makes it difficult to try and compare small nations doing well to countries like the UK and USA. 1000s of people landing every hour travelling into your cities, countries scared of being the first one to make a major call to put travel bans in place and commit economic suicide.

We are trying to make simple answers to very complex situations.

 

[Manc in London]

A tiny percentage of young and/or healthy have died. Much fewer than a typical Flu causes in those groups.

I had no idea. Interesting to know.

 

[BlueAnorak]

A tiny percentage of young and/or healthy have died. Much fewer than a typical Flu causes in those groups.

That's not quite right. Yes COVID-19 disproportinately effects the old but Flu deaths normally occur in this same age group.
Average flu kills 0.1% (without lockdown) whereas COVID-19 kills around 0.6% (with lockdown).Worse it spreads so quickly that deaths are concentrated over a short term period 2 months or so rather than 6 months.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[SWP's back]

and yet the number of death related cases had already started to fall a week before lockdown in England. Go figure.

And then started to rise again.

 

[Blue Potato]

Total deaths in Italy for the month of March 49.4% higher than the average over the previous 5 years. Further breakdown by location in this thread:

 

[SWP's back]

I had no idea. Interesting to know.

I’d wait for the link yet. I don’t necessarily believe it.

 

[robbieh]

All plays a huge part though which makes it difficult to try and compare small nations doing well to countries like the UK and USA. 1000s of people landing every hour travelling into your cities, countries scared of being the first one to make a major call to put travel bans in place and commit economic suicide.

We are trying to make simple answers to very complex situations.

You don't think that Greece, a country beset by economic problems didn't think about that.

As I say they should be up and running sooner than many countries.

I appreciate that they are conference rather than PL but had the UK done something similar we would be able to restart the economy much sooner than we will do.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Karen, let's do some very easy maths together ok?

Im going to use the term mean.


1) What is the mean time between infection and symptoms?
2) What is the mean time between symptoms and death?

answer 1) 5 days
answer 2) 18 days

add them together = 23 days.

So from catching it to dying takes on average 23 days.


3) When did the most people in English hospitals die from covid (the peak)?

answer 3) 8th April.

4) when did they catch it?

answer 4) 23 days before the 8th April which is 16th of March

Here comes the big one!

When did the UK go into "lockdown"?

I'll let you answer that yourself and see if you can draw any conclusions.

As we went into lockdown on the 23rd March, it's pretty clear that social distancing a week or so earlier had a massive effect on outcomes.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Research from South Korea indicates that reinfections were actually due to false positive tests:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html

As to short term immunity B and T lymphocyte cells are now know to exist for at least 3 months from people who were ill (not mild illness).
Medium and long term immunity will be dependent on whether B & T lymphocyte mory cells created in small numbers are bound to our bone marrow and how fast the virus mutates.

Probable as you suggest that we have some degree of immunity and also very likely that cv19 is not biphasic as this has not been exhibited in other coronaviruses (not known for rna viruses) - it's the effectiveness of that immunity which needs to be reviewed and analysed. I am surprised that the Chinese have not come out with any data on this yet as I think they are the only country with the scientific capacity and more importantly ability (I suspect there won't be any moral compass to guide them on the ethics of this) to fast track these types of tests with the pool of existing positive people they have, especially considering that they are quite a few months ahead of everyone.

 

[incred]

Why do senior politicians like Boris and Hancock pronounce 'TO' as 'TE' . Surely poor English?

 

[kaz7]

Daily briefing

Total tests 1,291,000

Last 24hrs tests 85,186

Positives 190,184

Numbers in hospital 13,258

Critical care patients

Critical care capacity is fine

Deaths all settings in the UK 28,734

Testing capacity 108,000

Test, track and trace begins today on the isle of white

 

[Scottyboi]

You don't think that Greece, a country beset by economic problems didn't think about that.

As I say they should be up and running sooner than many countries.

I appreciate that they are conference rather than PL but had the UK done something similar we would be able to restart the economy much sooner than we will do.

Just looked into the top 10 most visited countries in the world and one really stands out which is Thailand.

There figures are amazing compared to anyone else's wonder why that is.

 

[worsleyweb]

Let’s hope that it just keeps falling over the next few weeks. It really feels like they are starting to corner this.

 

[kaz7]

Medical

No change in restrictions

Five tests

We are past the peak

Rate of infection decreasing to a managable level

Still challenged in PPE

Movement of people using Apple data and all data,remains low

Tests completed by day ,capacity 108,000(cough but we did 120,000 on target day)

Number of new cases ,needs to come down lower

Patients in hospital,steady decline all over the country

Patients in critical care,still declining,plenty of capacity

Deaths in all settings,slow decline

Global death rates,still worst in Europe on that one,excess mortality will give better pic later on

 

[BlueAnorak]

Probable as you suggest that we have some degree of immunity and also very likely that cv19 is not biphasic as this has not been exhibited in other coronaviruses (not known for rna viruses) - it's the effectiveness of that immunity which needs to be reviewed and analysed. I am surprised that the Chinese have not come out with any data on this yet as I think they are the only country with the scientific capacity and more importantly ability (I suspect there won't be any moral compass to guide them on the ethics of this) to fast track these types of tests with the pool of existing positive people they have, especially considering that they are quite a few months ahead of everyone.

Would you believe any information coming out of China? I wouldn't. South Korea, Sindapre and Japan are the nations I am most interested in.