COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Bovril said:
Karen please this is getting tireless and repetitive, this stuff should be in the Covid political thread not here, it diminishes the superb analysis of this virus from some excellent posters.
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That is why my follow up post was we are going into politics so for the other thread,it pays to read on ;)
 
The 0.25% infected guesstimate was for how many had it at that point - a week or two ago - wasn't it? Not how many have HAD it in total over the past three months?

When those samples were taken we were well over the peak so numbers were declining.

We are finding 3000 cases from 120,000 tests. At the peak we were finding 6000 cases from about 10% of that number. Suggesting there were really many more cases then.

As proven by the fast declining hospital admissions too.

In any case if it were really 0,25% infected that means our death rate is miles above every other country in the world. Which seems highly unlikely.

THe death rate pretty much everywhere seems 1% or so at most by most estimates. That would imply a higher infected rate here than 0,25%.

5% has to be about a minimum level of those who have had it I think to make our death rates fit.
 
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quiet_riot said:
The 1/2/5 metres think is bollocks IMO

Ever smelt smoke from someone smoking far away? Yeah, you're breathing in their breath, I see no reason why this would be different.
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I don't think it is complete bollocks though it might not be the whole story. smoke has very fine particles indeed , viruses have to travel in certain numbers often in droplets to infect. The range that different sized droplets travel and how loaded droplets can be with viruses has been studied extensively . People combine this with the epidemiology of how the virus spreads to see what the typical transmission range is.
It is not a guarantee of 100% accuracy and the time that you spend in an area with an infected person will have a significant effect as well as the range.
It's discussed here but not for covid if you're interested.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625717301773
 
Healdplace said:
The 0.25% infected guesstimate was for how many had it at that point - a week or two ago - wasn't it? Not how many have HAD it in total over the past three months?

When those samples were taken we were well over the peak so numbers were declining.

We are finding 3000 cases from 120,000 tests. At the peak we were finding 6000 cases from about 10% of that number. Suggesting there were really many more cases then.

As proven by the fast declining hospital admissions too.

In any case if it were really 0,25% infected that means our death rate is miles above every other country in the world. Which seems highly unlikely.

THe death rate pretty much everywhere seems 1% or so at most by most estimates. That would imply a higher infected rate here than 0,25%.

5% has to be about a minimum level of those who have had it I think to make our death rates fit.
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Slide number 1 top left 0.25% is the average number at any one time over specified period. Hope this helps.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...20-05-22_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf
 
Cityfan said:
I don't think it is complete bollocks though it might not be the whole story. smoke has very fine particles indeed , viruses have to travel in certain numbers often in droplets to infect. The range that different sized droplets travel and how loaded droplets can be with viruses has been studied extensively . People combine this with the epidemiology of how the virus spreads to see what the typical transmission range is.
It is not a guarantee of 100% accuracy and the time that you spend in an area with an infected person will have a significant effect as well as the range.
It's discussed here but not for covid if you're interested.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625717301773
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Physical smoke apart, what about walking down a corridor 5/10 meters behind a colleague that has just been out for a fag, and isn't exhaling smoke anymore but you can still smell their breath?
 
Cityfan said:
I don't think it is complete bollocks though it might not be the whole story. smoke has very fine particles indeed , viruses have to travel in certain numbers often in droplets to infect. The range that different sized droplets travel and how loaded droplets can be with viruses has been studied extensively . People combine this with the epidemiology of how the virus spreads to see what the typical transmission range is.
It is not a guarantee of 100% accuracy and the time that you spend in an area with an infected person will have a significant effect as well as the range.
It's discussed here but not for covid if you're interested.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625717301773
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Interesting that, cheers

I read an article today saying that even droplets from speech (obviouly in closer proximity than 2m) can carry, spread and infect.
 
whitenoise said:
Physical smoke apart, what about walking down a corridor 5/10 meters behind a colleague that has just been out for a fag, and isn't exhaling smoke anymore but you can still smell their breath?
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Smell is of individual molecules not droplets they can hang around in the air for ages.
 
quiet_riot said:
Interesting that, cheers

I read an article today saying that even droplets from speech (obviouly in closer proximity than 2m) can carry, spread and infect.
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Droplets from speech are probably important and will typically travel a bit further than ordinary breathing.
 
Cityfan said:
Smell is of individual molecules not droplets they can hang around in the air for ages.
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Just going by this, I originally saw it on BBC news (can't find it now) but the daily fail story has the gist of it -

"
US scientists found high levels of the bug lurking in the air in rooms long after patients had left.

What's more is that traces of the coronavirus were also discovered in hospital corridors outside patients' rooms, where staff had been coming in and out."

Hopefully BBC pulled it as fake news and the Daily Fail is just being true to form. The original story was about it being found outside wards, not rooms (IIR)
 
whitenoise said:
Just going by this, I originally saw it on BBC news (can't find it now) but the daily fail story has the gist of it -

"
US scientists found high levels of the bug lurking in the air in rooms long after patients had left.

What's more is that traces of the coronavirus were also discovered in hospital corridors outside patients' rooms, where staff had been coming in and out."

Hopefully BBC pulled it as fake news and the Daily Fail is just being true to form. The original story was about it being found outside wards, not rooms (IIR)
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In Wuhan they found traces of it all over the hospital.
The question is at what level have they found it sufficient to cause transmission and the indications are that it is generally by droplet spread over fairly short distances. Which is not to say that if you are sharing a room with someone and he coughs from the other side of the room transmission is impossible but it is less likely.
I wouldn't like to be sat three metres away from someone known to be excreting covid indoors with poor ventilation and no PPE for a prolonged length of time.
 
Blu1 said:
just had mine & the very thoughts went through my mind. I get results in 24-72 hours but I could catch it immediately after test!

The only benefit is I have a young family so it’s a peace of mind type scenario.

the antibody test is what needs rolling out ASAP in my opinion these current test do seem a waste of money and they are not accurate.

my parent had 3 neg test then 1 pos test in hospital during 7 days! Figure that out
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Hope they were ok mate . It’s crazy world we live and it will never be the same again
 
karen7 said:
In the briefings they say 0.25%
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The 0.25% figure isn't the number that have had it, its the number that actually had it from the survey of people over 7 days, so 0.25% were actually infected during the trial.

0.25% of the population is 165,000, and we know over 250,000 have tested positive already ~ 0.4%, and hundreds of thousands of others have had it without being tested.
 
Gabriel said:
EYuEqJpWoAAl9BY
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How did they get the picture of me working from home ?
 
cleavers said:
The 0.25% figure isn't the number that have had it, its the number that actually had it from the survey of people over 7 days, so 0.25% were actually infected during the trial.

0.25% of the population is 165,000, and we know over 250,000 have tested positive already ~ 0.4%, and hundreds of thousands of others have had it without being tested.
Click to expand...

I think Karen needs to take her own advice and watch/read the full article and stop posting misleading information.
 
cleavers said:
The 0.25% figure isn't the number that have had it, its the number that actually had it from the survey of people over 7 days, so 0.25% were actually infected during the trial.

0.25% of the population is 165,000, and we know over 250,000 have tested positive already ~ 0.4%, and hundreds of thousands of others have had it without being tested.
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Thanks
 
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