The Scottish Politics thread

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Ban-jani said:
What’s it for then?

How does it help?

It’s weaker than Iraq’s embassy in Brussels, it’s just an outpost to try and hear what’s happening and to try and push Scottish interests.

It doesn’t have any involvement in political, legal, regulatory, trade decisions involving the UK or Scotland.

It’s only use to Scottish independence is to be pally with people there.
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Which is what international diplomacy is all about.
 
Ban-jani said:
I couldn’t disagree more, the migration will be swiftly south, not north.

Scotland aren’t guaranteed EU membership and even if they somehow convinced the EU, they would be forced to enact a stern austerity, as Croatia were made to, to get their deficit-GDP down to 3%.

It’ll likely be 12%+ by the time they push for that, possibly much more.
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Absolute nonsense and entirely wrong on your first point. When Scotland becomes independent it will become a gateway into both the EU and the UK mainland. The growing boom of Glasgow's financial district is a good indication of general economic intent. With Scottish tourism just one example of an industry suffering due to Brexit, there will be many jobs available in that sector with the availability of an EU passport again. And although we will ofcourse have to go through the legal implications again, the concensus is that the EU want Scotland in ASAP. And Scotland wants back. Personally I'm not entirely sure on the idea.

With regards to the deficit, this is a deficit that is tied to a Westminster government. Ofcourse there are benefits, but essentially our economy is tailored to 70 million people, 65 of which are below our borders. The whole point of independence is to build an economy that is tailored to a small, resource rich country. A good proportion of the entire countries wealth goes straight to corporate London, so there's a direct saving from the offset.

And Scotland quite simply cannot fail (in my opinion) unless through vast incompetence in government (this current one coming close). It is resource rich, it has a strong educational system and has the potential to be a renewable power house. Not to mention having a third of landmass and surpluses meat, drink, lumber, fresh water etc.

Ofcourse the future of Scotland's economy and its resources depend on how well we build for the future. Any remaining oil funds I would, ironically, expect to fund a greater renewable sector, larger ports as we won't be shipping via Portsmouth and to sustain our road network which will be very costly.

What will be interesting will be the approach to privatisation which the SNP openly dislikes. Even though we somehow blame the EU for the state of Scottish fishing, the rights were sold off by the Tories to rich families to do as they will. Nothing to do with the EU. Zero. Will be an interesting development watching that unfold.
 
Ban-jani said:
Scotland isn’t already a member, the UK is and all agreements are with the UK as a whole.

Scotland will be rejoining as a newly formed nation, will have to change currency, add border infrastructure etc.

Tusk was clear in saying that whilst there is empathy, he actually said there’s empathy for anyone looking to enter the EU or work with them, they would have to go through the normal process.

I think they could be fast tracked but we’re still talking years, not months.
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One other reason, in addition to the optics of part of a former member being welcomed back into the EU, for why Scotland may be fast tracked is our old favourite, fish. Should Scotland go independent following a No Deal or limited FTA, much of the UK’s fishing grounds would become Scottish waters. For some reason, access to those waters appears to be disproportionately important to the EU.
 
Vicious111 said:
Absolute nonsense and entirely wrong on your first point. When Scotland becomes independent it will become a gateway into both the EU and the UK mainland. The growing boom of Glasgow's financial district is a good indication of general economic intent. With Scottish tourism just one example of an industry suffering due to Brexit, there will be many jobs available in that sector with the availability of an EU passport again. And although we will ofcourse have to go through the legal implications again, the concensus is that the EU want Scotland in ASAP. And Scotland wants back. Personally I'm not entirely sure on the idea.

With regards to the deficit, this is a deficit that is tied to a Westminster government. Ofcourse there are benefits, but essentially our economy is tailored to 70 million people, 65 of which are below our borders. The whole point of independence is to build an economy that is tailored to a small, resource rich country. A good proportion of the entire countries wealth goes straight to corporate London, so there's a direct saving from the offset.

And Scotland quite simply cannot fail (in my opinion) unless through vast incompetence in government (this current one coming close). It is resource rich, it has a strong educational system and has the potential to be a renewable power house. Not to mention having a third of landmass and surpluses meat, drink, lumber, fresh water etc.

Ofcourse the future of Scotland's economy and its resources depend on how well we build for the future. Any remaining oil funds I would, ironically, expect to fund a greater renewable sector, larger ports as we won't be shipping via Portsmouth and to sustain our road network which will be very costly.

What will be interesting will be the approach to privatisation. Even though we somehow blame the EU for the state of Scottish fishing, the rights were sold off by the Tories to rich families to do as they will. Nothing to do with the EU. Zero. Will be an interesting development watching that unfold.
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Good post mate. There are proposals to put oil revenues into a development fund to finance future capital projects instead of including them in the annual 'current account'. That proposal was made in the SGC report of 2018. They also carry out some interesting analysis of small countries with developed economies. The gist of the report is that it is the status quo that is unsustainable and that an independent Scotland, albeit with significant challenges to face, has a far greater chance of success as a nation outside the framework of the UK than inside.
You are correct about fishing rights in Scotland.
 
Vicious111 said:
Absolute nonsense and entirely wrong on your first point. When Scotland becomes independent it will become a gateway into both the EU and the UK mainland. The growing boom of Glasgow's financial district is a good indication of general economic intent. With Scottish tourism just one example of an industry suffering due to Brexit, there will be many jobs available in that sector with the availability of an EU passport again. And although we will ofcourse have to go through the legal implications again, the concensus is that the EU want Scotland in ASAP. And Scotland wants back. Personally I'm not entirely sure on the idea.

With regards to the deficit, this is a deficit that is tied to a Westminster government. Ofcourse there are benefits, but essentially our economy is tailored to 70 million people, 65 of which are below our borders. The whole point of independence is to build an economy that is tailored to a small, resource rich country. A good proportion of the entire countries wealth goes straight to corporate London, so there's a direct saving from the offset.

And Scotland quite simply cannot fail (in my opinion) unless through vast incompetence in government (this current one coming close). It is resource rich, it has a strong educational system and has the potential to be a renewable power house. Not to mention having a third of landmass and surpluses meat, drink, lumber, fresh water etc.

Ofcourse the future of Scotland's economy and its resources depend on how well we build for the future. Any remaining oil funds I would, ironically, expect to fund a greater renewable sector, larger ports as we won't be shipping via Portsmouth and to sustain our road network which will be very costly.

What will be interesting will be the approach to privatisation which the SNP openly dislikes. Even though we somehow blame the EU for the state of Scottish fishing, the rights were sold off by the Tories to rich families to do as they will. Nothing to do with the EU. Zero. Will be an interesting development watching that unfold.
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Genuinely, this is one of the most uninformed posts I’ve read for a while and that’s saying something.

Where are you getting “gateway into the EU and UK” from?

Do you think Scotland will be in the UK Customs Union still like NI and it so, where the fuck are you getting that from?

Even if that was the case, it really really isn’t, NI will have beaten Scotland to it.

You think the financial sector in Scotland isn’t heavily tied to one of the biggest finance cities in the world, arguably top 3-5, London?

What do you think will happen when Scotland is an entirely different nation to England? Do you think the banks, headquartered in London are going to move to Glasgow?

What do you think NatWest/RBS will do when that happens? I’ll tell you because I work with them and have heard it from the horses mouth.

RBS won’t only no longer exist in England as a brand, it won’t exist in Scotland either, NatWest will remain in the rest of the UK.

Are you on glue?

You also think Scotland’s tourism industry is going to come to the rescue? I refer you to the question above about glue.

The deficit and debt is Scotland’s fault, as much as England’s, the SNP have been running a higher deficit than England and should Scotland wish to leave the UK, the transition period is absolutely paramount to its survival before joining the EU, if the EU grants membership that is.

What do you think is going to happen when Scotland asks for a lengthy transition but doesn’t want to take its deficit or debt and wants to try and keep old of the majority of the oil, that the UK currently extracts?
 
west didsblue said:
One other reason, in addition to the optics of part of a former member being welcomed back into the EU, for why Scotland may be fast tracked is our old favourite, fish. Should Scotland go independent following a No Deal or limited FTA, much of the UK’s fishing grounds would become Scottish waters. For some reason, access to those waters appears to be disproportionately important to the EU.
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I actually cannot fathom the fact you lot are back on fish.

It’s about 0.1% of the UK’s economy.

We’ve all argued the ridiculousness of Farage and Johnson banging on about fish during Brexit because it’s a minuscule part of the economy.

I’m seeing the same arguments circulate.

If Brexit is a terrible idea, this is worse.
 
Ban-jani said:
I actually cannot fathom the fact you lot are back on fish.

It’s about 0.1% of the UK’s economy.

We’ve all argued the ridiculousness of Farage and Johnson banging on about fish during Brexit because it’s a minuscule part of the economy.

I’m seeing the same arguments circulate.

If Brexit is a terrible idea, this is worse.
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Which is why I said it had disproportionate influence when compared to its economic importance.

Even so, 60% of UK fish is landed in Scotland so as a proportion of the Scottish economy it’s much higher.
 
west didsblue said:
Which is why I said it had disproportionate influence when compared to its economic importance.

Even so, 60% of UK fish is landed in Scotland so as a proportion of the Scottish economy it’s much higher.
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That’s around 0.06% of the UK economy they’ll take with them.

Thank God for that, they’ll be absolutely sweet on their own then.

Compare that to the finance sector in England which is about 65% of the UK economy, that Scottish financial companies will no longer have access to.
 
west didsblue said:
Well done for totally missing the point.
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I didn’t miss the point.

Anyway...

You’re arguing for another Brexit, a worse Brexit, a Brexit that has far more negative impact going forward.

Why are you trying to defend it with fishing points?
 
Ban-jani said:
I didn’t miss the point.

Anyway...

You’re arguing for another Brexit, a worse Brexit, a Brexit that has far more negative impact going forward.

Why are you trying to defend it with fishing points?
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I’m against Scottish independence. I’m simply pointing out that it’s by no means a given that it would take a long time for Scotland to rejoin the EU post independence.
And one reason for that in addition to the optics of the EU welcoming back a pro-EU population into the the fold is the disproportionate importance to the EU of access to UK waters for fishing, which Scotland could offer (to 50% of them where most of the fish are) at relatively small cost to itself as part of its accession discussions.
 
west didsblue said:
I’m against Scottish independence. I’m simply pointing out that it’s by no means a given that it would take a long time for Scotland to rejoin the EU post independence.
And one reason for that in addition to the optics of the EU welcoming back a pro-EU population into the the fold is the disproportionate importance to the EU of access to UK waters for fishing, which Scotland could offer (to 50% of them where most of the fish are) at relatively small cost to itself as part of its accession discussions.
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What does a long time mean though?

Do you think it will be months or years?

Because once independence happens, they will be an entirely new country, it doesn’t matter if they were a region in the EU, the political agreement was with London and they will need to go through the process as a new country.
 
Ban-jani said:
What does a long time mean though?

Do you think it will be months or years?

Because once independence happens, they will be an entirely new country, it doesn’t matter if they were a region in the EU, the political agreement was with London and they will need to go through the process as a new country.
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So you keep saying.
What I’m saying is that there is a reasonable chance that the EU will treat Scotland as a special case. I’m not saying it will happen just that there’s a fair chance. Just my opinion though.
 
west didsblue said:
So you keep saying.
What I’m saying is that there is a reasonable chance that the EU will treat Scotland as a special case. I’m not saying it will happen just that there’s a fair chance. Just my opinion though.
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They’re certainly a special case if they go through with this.

In all seriousness, a special case is 5-7 years.

Even halving that, being unprecedented, it leaves them in a terrible position.

Even dividing by three, again, unheard of, leaves them in a pretty precarious position if London doesn’t play ball with a favourable transition.

The latter two scenarios are even unlikely, with the third being close to impossible.

Imagine if you go back to early 2016, how would you discuss Brexit on here? The reason I keep saying it is because I think this is worse.
 
Ban-jani said:
I’ve spent a far amount of time in Scotland and don’t get me wrong we’re not attacked in the street but the first pub I went in Edinburgh, last time was there, had poems all over it about killing the English centuries ago.

Barmaid took half an age to come to us on purpose.

General attitudes have been a little unpleasant.

It’s not that bad but there is a general dislike, that isn’t reciprocated from England to Scotland.

Similarly with Wales, during the 6 nations my mate who’s married to a welsh girl got smacked in a pub and he’s about 5ft and never had a fight in his life.

Again it’s not pure hatred, more a general moderate dislike.
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Been Scotland many a time and had a good laugh with the locals, never even had a dodgy stare.

Unlike the bloody welsh, well the northern persuasion to be fair.

As a golfer and a drinker I could happily spend the rest of my days in Scotland or ireland if it wasn’t for the shit weather.
 
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