COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Tim of the Oak said:
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I think she and I are on the same page as I agreed with almost everything in that thread and it is in line with what I have been posting in here over the past couple of weeks. We have clearly been viewing the same data.

She uses the West MIdlands as an example - which is bad but the NW is worse - and does not mention the huge rise in ventilated patients. But other than that I am pleased some experts are now seeing the problem and proposing solutions. We just need our leadership to live up to that name and be both more visible and accountable. Not t9o mention unified. We likely should have had a 'war cabinet' from the start of this with the best minds across the board. We need that now as this is no longer about politics it is about the future of the nation.

As I said a few days ago here when the numbers first became obviously at a tipping point. We do have very little time now to make the right or wrong decisions. We have to make the right ones - and even those wanting a normal life so badly on here have to accept that will involve more restrictions. Because if we falter or choose unwisely now the consequence will be a catastrophioc lengthy national lockdown to try to salvage the near unsalvagable and Christmas will be nothing like we all want it to be this year. It will not be normal. But it can be better if we act soon than it will be if we dither and delay.

We have one chance to slow the tide. But time is very limited to take that chance as it is likely we are already close to the point where delay will only reult in knee jerk reactions a week or two later that will be even worse.
 
missing person said:
You initially quoted me, I'm fine with who I am. Far from a nut. You however are a cultist on here, I've out lived the lot of you so please stop trying to get rid.

Unless I die of a deadly dis-ease I ain't going anywhere, now please I'm only offering a different perspective to the facistic agenda.
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WTF does, ”I’ve outlived the lot of you” mean, you nutter?
 
Silva_Spell said:
New study suggests having a cold recently could prepare your lungs to fight against covid
100% of mice infected with covid died but 100% of those that were given a normal coronavirus beforehand survived.

Could mean that lockdowns make us more vulnerable afterwards but also offer immunotherapy options

Nasal priming by a murine coronavirus provides protective immunity against lethal heterologous virus pneumonia - PMC

The nasal mucosa is an important component of mucosal immunity. Immunogenic particles in inspired air are known to activate the local nasal mucosal immune system and can lead to sinonasal inflammation; however, little is known about the effect of ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Mice are almost impossible to infect with covid 19, and those that get it get it very mildly.
 
Healdplace said:
I think she and I are on the same page as I agreed with almost everything in that thread and it is in line with what I have been posting in here over the past couple of weeks. We have clearly been viewing the same data.

She uses the West MIdlands as an example - which is bad but the NW is worse - and does not mention the huge rise in ventilated patients. But other than that I am pleased some experts are now seeing the problem and proposing solutions. We just need our leadership to live up to that name and be both more visible and accountable. Not t9o mention unified. We likely should have had a 'war cabinet' from the start of this with the best minds across the board. We need that now as this is no longer about politics it is about the future of the nation.

As I said a few days ago here when the numbers first became obviously at a tipping point. We do have very little time now to make the right or wrong decisions. We have to make the right ones - and even those wanting a normal life so badly on here have to accept that will involve more restrictions. Because if we falter or choose unwisely now the consequence will be a catastrophioc lengthy national lockdown to try to salvage the near unsalvagable and Christmas will be nothing like we all want it to be this year. It will not be normal. But it can be better if we act soon than it will be if we dither and delay.

We have one chance to slow the tide. But time is very limited to take that chance as it is likely we are already close to the point where delay will only reult in knee jerk reactions a week or two later that will be even worse.
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A second wave was always likely if not inevitable. I think we will see more restrictions fairly soon and they need to be evidence based and communicated well by the right people. Communications from politicians and their hangers on (eg Dido) haven’t had a positive impact. Clinicians and scientists need to be giving the medical and scientific messages.

iMHO, we need to avoid a full lockdown as far as possible (and I doubt whether it work the second time around). That said, it wasn’t so bad for most people when they were allowed regular exercise.!We also need to stop the negativity that sometimes happened last time round against peole complying with the rules eg self employed trades people, gardeners etc who were working in relative isolation.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
A second wave was always likely if not inevitable. I think we will see more restrictions fairly soon and they need to be evidence based and communicated well by the right people. Communications from politicians and their hangers on (eg Dido) haven’t had a positive impact. Clinicians and scientists need to be giving the medical and scientific messages.

iMHO, we need to avoid a full lockdown as far as possible (and I doubt whether it work the second time around). That said, it wasn’t so bad for most people when they were allowed regular exercise.!We also need to stop the negativity that sometimes happened last time round against peole complying with the rules eg self employed trades people, gardeners etc who were working in relative isolation.
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I agree with what you say.

The most important thing as far as I am concerned is ensuring that schools, colleges etc. stay open.
 
So the tests are said to produce 1% of all tests as a false positive which is pretty impressive .

however in reality that translates into a big number if we are testing 200,000 people a day.

that is 2,000 people you are saying have Covid Each day when statistically they don’t.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
So the tests are said to produce 1% of all tests as a false positive which is pretty impressive .

however in reality that translates into a big number if we are testing 200,000 people a day.

that is 2,000 people you are saying have Covid Each day when statistically they don’t.
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I think the stat is 1% of all *Positive* tests are false positive. So if there are 4,000 confirmed positive tests per day the number of false positives is around 40.
 
Bolton council leader on Today programme said that they believed one person triggered much of the outbreak after returning from holiday with Covid and refusing to self isolate. Then going on a weekend long pub crawl infecting others.

If true (seems unlikely you can really be that specific given the numbers) it flags up how much we have relied on the good sense and community spirit of the public to follow 'guidance' with no real consequence for themselves if they do not.

This problem will only recur as the willingness to do the right thing has understandably ebbed with the passage of time and the freedoms of Summer. Not to mention the confused messaging. Frankly bonkers timing of things they chose to do. And the lack of setting of an example that matters so much in this situation.

In the Isle of Man they kept the virus under real control (easier on a small island in the middle of the sea of course). But they had a sudden outbreak early days from someone arriving from England and refusing to self isolate. They put him in jail to make sure he did.

You give people too much freedom to choose how to comply, the considerate choose wisely and the selfish choose themselves. Unfortunately the selfish then are the ones who end the freedoms of everyone. It may need more motivation for some to do the right thing.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
I think the stat is 1% of all *Positive* tests are false positive. So if there are 4,000 confirmed positive tests per day the number of false positives is around 40.
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No one really knows what the false positive rate is and a lot depends on what you call a false positive.
The pcr test detects viral rna and if the lab is even half decent if the test is positive it means that viral rna is present with a very high degree of probability.
What this does not mean is that there is viable virus capable of causing infection still present it is probable that some positive results are as a result of resolving infection with rna present from virus that the body has denatured.
The rate that this occurs is unknown and will depend on the testing regime and when you pick up cases.
 
missing person said:
Wasting my breath, the media and the government both do with the same u know what.

Its getting out of control oh my god! But relatively speaking no ones dying in fact more people according to the ons are dying with the flu.

Is that a conspiracy?
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and in a few weeks time when numbers hit 200/300 possibly. What will you say then ?
 
Unfortunately the England hospital deaths follow the same trend as last few days now deaths very clearly ARE rising. The legacy of those increased hospital numbers starting 2 or 3 weeks ago and the icu/ventilator patients rising over past 10 days.

Sadly this is why it is starting to look that something stricter will now be imposed. Maybe just short term to try to stem this. Indeed there are rumours of a Boris press conference on Tuesday circulating. Which might be expected anyway with the planned changes then.

16 deaths - once more a big rise on this time last week as it has been for several days. It was 8 last Saturday.

6 of the 16 are from the NW.
 
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