COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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BlueHammer85 said:
Coronavirus is spreading across London with more than 1,000 new cases a day now, official figures reveal.
They show how the epidemic is hitting boroughs across the city and is no longer mainly affecting east London.
Sixteen areas now have infection rates of more than 60 new cases per 100,000 people in the week to October 2.

www.standard.co.uk

Covid-19 spreading across London with more than 1,000 new daily cases

London was declared an area of concern last month when there were just over 600 new cases a day
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk
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Much lower than north west though and has been for a while. Would be interesting to see how they both compared from the beginning to now and see if there is any reason outside of wild guesses.

Stats probably not out there though.
 
grunge said:
For those interested I just spotted this.

download the data from the map section.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

shows week by week breakdown at quite a granular level so you can track it really well on a very local level.

it seems to group each town/city but doesn't lable them as that town or city though.
Click to expand...


I mentioned this page a week or two ago for the opportunity to compare each local area - like Manchester v Leicester as the example I used then. But was not computer savvy enough to link to it and nobody picked up on my suggestion to post a link.

So thank you for linking to that section.

The best part is the ability to click on every local health area (where I get the data I post here every night, of course) - visually as a graph across the entire pandemic.

You click on Leicester and you see what I was talking about then compared with, say. Manchester and most other places.

You see most places had a sharp rise from March to around 10 April, then peaked, then slowly fell to next to nothing all Summer. And is now rising again.

But Leicester does not do this, It climbs relentlessly and has no April peak when the UK had over 1000 a day dying. Indeed they are below average for a city then. Yet as the others are all going down over the next two months Leicester is still relentlessly going up until late June when it was at or above where most other places were in April.

It then became the first place to go into local retrictions. But not - as most assumed - because it had a sudden spike like Manchester recently. That's how the story was sold. As this graph shows it was not that at all. It had just had a very different pandemic.

The restrictions very slowly got it under control but cases seem high again now. Though everything beyond June is compromised by the change in focus of testing and the sheer escalation in numbers so I would not really look at the graph too closely beyond July as pretty much everywhere will have lots more cases by consequence of more tests being done.

I am still not convinced we have fully understood why Leicester behaved so atypically and what it may/may not teach us about the way to control outbreaks like we are trying to do in GM with seemingly little apparent success.
The graphs become fairly unhelpful after Summer because the testing has both sky rocketed in numbers ad become more focused on hot spots. But you see very cleary from the graph you link to there the anomaly that is Leicester.

And why at the moment (as in a few days until Manchester and Oldham overtake it as they are about to do) it is the place that ha apparently dealt with the pandemic the worst of anywhere IF you simply base that on the Pop Score it has of 2119.

But in reality it has just had a very unusual pandemic with how its cases buily up and were unimpacted at all by the first lockdown and just went on going up until the Summer lockdown was introduced there and slowly started to work.
 
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Healdplace said:
I mentioned this page a week or two ago for the opportunity to compare each local area - like Manchester v Leicester as the example I used then. But was not computer savvy enough to link to it and nobody picked up on my suggestion to post a link.

So thank you for linking to that section.

The best part is the ability to click on every local health area (where I get the data I post here every night, of course) - visually as a graph across the entire pandemic.

You click on Leicester and you see what I was talking about then compared with, say. Manchester and most other places.

You see most places had a sharp rise from March to around 10 April, then peaked, then slowly fell to next to nothing all Summer. And is now rising again.

But Leicester does not do this, It climbs relentlessly and has no April peak when the UK had over 1000 a day dying. Indeed they are below average for a city then. Yet as the otes are all going down over the next two months Leicester is still relentlessly going up until late June when it was at or above where most other places were in April.

It then became the first place to go into local retrictions. But not - as most assumed - because it had a dudden spike like Manchester reently. That's how the story was sold. AS this graph shows ot was not that at all. It had just had a very different pandemic.

The restrictions very slowly got it under control but cases seem high again now. Though everything beyond June is compromised by the change in focus of testing and the sheer escalation in numbers so I would not really look at the graph too closely beyond July as pretty much everywhere will have lots more cases by consequence of more tests being done.

I am still not convinced we have fully understood why Leicester behaved so atypically and what it may/may not teach us about the way to control outbreaks like we are trying to do in GM with seemingly little apparent success.
The graphs become fairly unhelpful after Summer because the testing has both sky rocketed in numbers ad become more focused on hot spots. But you see very cleary from the graph you link to there the anomaly that is Leicester.

And why at the moment (as in a few days until Manchester and Oldham overtake it as they are about to do) it is the place that ha apparently dealt with the pandemic the worst of anywhere IF you simply base that on the Pop Score it has of 2119.

But in reality it has just had a very unusual pandemic with how its cases buily up and were unimpacted at all by the first lockdown and just went on going up until the Summer lockdown was introduced there and slowly started to work.
Click to expand...

i think @grunge linked to the MSOA map, which isn't healthcare related. I've been using this page for weeks, but the PHE and NHS data will give you more context (England only).

i dont get Leicester either. Or Blackburn. Neither of them have realy abated in cases, just carried on increasing.
 
shemnel said:
i think @grunge linked to the MSOA map, which isn't healthcare related. I've been using this page for weeks, but the PHE and NHS data will give you more context (England only).

i dont get Leicester either. Or Blackburn. Neither of them have realy abated in cases, just carried on increasing.
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Agreed. I think soneone should be investigating the anomalies rather than the places that are basically alike as you find truth in mystery not consistency.

The link takes you to the same section of gov. uk where the graphs are below under the local authority areas.
 
As per the discussion earlier of the 17% immunity for London. If I understood correctly that data goes back to June? I woulde imagine given the last two or three months in the North West that data will have changed a lot given just how many new infections there will have been, let alone the high number we have actually found.
 
Can I ask a question about the triage figures that keep getting posted here. And that seem to be regarded as good news in regard to hospital data on Covid by several people.

Would appreciate someone explaining the link between what seems a clearly decreasing curve and the rising admissions, people in hospital with Covid and those on ventilators with covid.

If indeed there is a link.

Is the triage data a number we should expect to start reducing these other numbers or slow them down at least?
 
According to the media leaks of what Nicola Sturgeon will announce this afternoon are of a complete shut down of bars and pubs from 10 to 25 October. To put a brake on the rising cases in Scotland. But it might run for longer in the most impacted areas.
 
Healdplace said:
Can I ask a question about the triage figures that keep getting posted here. And that seem to be regarded as good news in regard to hospital data on Covid by several people.

Would appreciate someone explaining the link between what seems a clearly decreasing curve and the rising admissions, people in hospital with Covid and those on ventilators with covid.

If indeed there is a link.

Is the triage data a number we should expect to start reducing these other numbers or slow them down at least?
Click to expand...

I do wonder if the triage calls to 111 slowly reduced as the track and trace app rolled out?

not sure if the dates match but having a different way to get tests may result in less traffic to the phones.


this mabe the source for the data.

digital.nhs.uk

NHS Pathways coronavirus triages - NHS Digital

Data showing coronavirus (COVID-19) assessments completed using NHS Pathways in support of NHS 111 telephone services.
digital.nhs.uk digital.nhs.uk
 
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