I’m just looking at the latest data. As always, we don’t know whether the current trend of positive tests decreasing will continue but there seems absolutely no case for Manchester going up to Tier 3 at the moment.
Manchester continues its decline in positive tests which started on 3rd Oct. Oldham, Salford, Stockport & Trafford also decreasing at 13 Oct (latest date when data reliable). GM as a whole still flat (actually down 0.5% on 13 Oct).
Every Tier 3 Mersey borough saw decrease in 7-day ave positive tests by specimen date on 13th Oct, latest date when data should be reliable. Merseyside have started decreasing (slowly) on 10 Oct, so relating to infections from perhaps 3 Oct, long before Tier 3 could have any effect. If I owned a gym or a pub on Merseyside I might be a tad disappointed.