COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It actually says in there “82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness“. If you swap Covid for Respiratory Virus, it’d just be a normal, if not a bit quieter than usual, October in a DGH
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Doesnt make a good story though does it. Everyone is aware its serious but news stories that are clearly written to try and scare people by playing on stats which are not unusual only makes people more suspicious. No wonder everyone is divided on this.
 
Looking like we might be going back to Level 4 lockdown (the second highest stage) over here tomorrow. Which means no going to work;

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This will be the second one this year; we previously had it from late march to the second week of June.
 
BBC national news just used those 5 day old figures to explain why Manchester is fighting the cuts because cases ARE now going down. Or as - if you paid really close attention - they WERE on 12/13 October.

Well yes they were. They might well be tomorrow. But they are not apparently in the past 48 hours if the data today is anything like it looks now when redistributed.

I do see why we should base our actions on how many positive cases there literally were on the right day but is the best we can do such big gap?

Are we as a nation really basing decisions on a pandemic that infects people in minutes and spreads like wildfire around things that happened last Tuesday because that is the most accurate up to date news?

Because if we are I am not surprised we are in a mess.

I am sure Covid will wait until we get our ducks in a row, cross check the numbers, find the tests that got lost, get people tested again, wait another few days until those come back, fix the computer that has been wrongly programmed, reboot the website that never crashes and then redistribute the tests to the right day last week when that test actually occurred. By which time the person tested is likely either better, back at work, has infected half their family and most at work or got worse and is in hospital where they tested them yesterday and knew before the first test was counted they had Covid and caught it last week.

There has to be a better way to defeat a global pandemic than expect a virulent infector to move at our current pace.

Should we not at least be able to know 24 hours later how many people really tested positive 2 days ago? If not how are we ever going to track, trace and stop this thing?
 
True_Blue69 said:
Doesnt make a good story though does it. Everyone is aware its serious but news stories that are clearly written to try and scare people by playing on stats which are not unusual only makes people more suspicious. No wonder everyone is divided on this.
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This. In. A. Nutshell.
 
jimharri said:
Looking like we might be going back to Level 4 lockdown (the second highest stage) over here tomorrow. Which means no going to work;

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This will be the second one this year; we previously had it from late march to the second week of June.
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The wedding table arrangements should be pretty simple.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I’m just looking at the latest data. As always, we don’t know whether the current trend of positive tests decreasing will continue but there seems absolutely no case for Manchester going up to Tier 3 at the moment.

Manchester continues its decline in positive tests which started on 3rd Oct. Oldham, Salford, Stockport & Trafford also decreasing at 13 Oct (latest date when data reliable). GM as a whole still flat (actually down 0.5% on 13 Oct).
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It did until yesterday and today, see the numbers earlier from @Healdplace
 
Interesting paradox we're in right now: testing healthy people then calling them ill, whilst ignoring and refusing to treat those who are genuinely sick.
27,630,000 lost GP appointments since March 2020.
350,000 lost cancer referrals.
62,000 lost urgent cancer referrals.
12,000 lost secondary cancer treatment appointments.
Millions of lost cancer screening appointments.
Cardiac appointments down by 50%.
It is only going to get worse.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Interesting paradox we're in right now: testing healthy people then calling them ill, whilst ignoring and refusing to treat those who are genuinely sick.
27,630,000 lost GP appointments since March 2020.
350,000 lost cancer referrals.
62,000 lost urgent cancer referrals.
12,000 lost secondary cancer treatment appointments.
Millions of lost cancer screening appointments.
Cardiac appointments down by 50%.
It is only going to get worse.
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If we knew who had the virus already, people wouldn’t need to be tested. You can make your point mate without trying to deter people from getting tested.
 
jimharri said:
Looking like we might be going back to Level 4 lockdown (the second highest stage) over here tomorrow. Which means no going to work;

image.png



This will be the second one this year; we previously had it from late march to the second week of June.
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I wish we had regulations that clear, instead of do what ever you think the rules say you can do (or not) if you understand them.

Not good to be going to the second worst, but at least it's clear what you can/can't do, nobody here really has a clear idea, different rules from one garden to another in places.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
45,859 (91.1%) of deaths involving COVID-19 up to the end of June in England and Wales had at least one pre-existing health condition. We also know the average age of death since the pandemic began is 82.4: https://cebm.ox.ac.uk/news/cebm-in-the-news

People of any age can become ill with COVID, and there’s evidence that even mild sufferers can experience long-term symptoms and I don’t wish to downplay it. But this is clearly a disease that disproportionately affects the elderly and in particular those suffering very ill health.
Christian Duncan, director of Surgery at Alder Hey children’s hospital said this today.
“Liverpool is using 80% of its icu capacity, not 95% and it’s below par for this time of year”.
This graph also gives a small clue as to where we are at.

View attachment 4071
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What this graph doesn't tell you is the locality of the numbers.

If we could spread all of the cases over the whole country then we'd be absolutely fine but that's not how it works and it never has.

If we had 50,000 cases in Manchester alone then that would bring the NHS locally to its knees, that's approaching what will happen at current rates.

This is the first wave for the north, not the second.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Interesting paradox we're in right now: testing healthy people then calling them ill, whilst ignoring and refusing to treat those who are genuinely sick.
27,630,000 lost GP appointments since March 2020.
350,000 lost cancer referrals.
62,000 lost urgent cancer referrals.
12,000 lost secondary cancer treatment appointments.
Millions of lost cancer screening appointments.
Cardiac appointments down by 50%.
It is only going to get worse.
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Where are you getting those stats from? Googling is showing nothing.
 
BigJoe#1 said:
Not directly related to Covid19 but....

Speaking to my neighbour today and he told me about his brother who died.

He went to hospital on Tuesday last week with a bleeding nose that he couldn't stop. He was admitted and on Friday he passed away.

His wife phoned the hospital on Saturday to be told.... and this is the gods honest...

Death certificate was issued, he was processed boxed up (his words) sent to the crematorium and cremated - his wife knew nothing about it until she phoned in the Saturday.

They live in an area that is not suffering massively with Covid at the moment..... unbelievable.

And no, we don't know what was put on the certificate!
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This sounds very wrong. It’s different per trust but even homeless get put in a morgue for a bit in the hope a body is claimed before the NHS pays for a cremation.

If this is genuine they need to be lawyering up.
 
inbetween said:
What this graph doesn't tell you is the locality of the numbers.

If we could spread all of the cases over the whole country then we'd be absolutely fine but that's not how it works and it never has.

If we had 50,000 cases in Manchester alone then that would bring the NHS locally to its knees, that's approaching what will happen at current rates.

This is the first wave for the north, not the second.
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It’s another big advantage of a national health service. Patients would be moved about, just like they always are in winter and other occasions when areas get full.
 
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