COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Eds said:
So essentially everyone is quoting different figures to suit their own needs rather than all singing from the same hymn sheet. Burnham literally playing with people's lives. Heard him on the news this morning moaning about politicians in Westminster, conveniently forgetting that for many years he was part of the problem.
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As I have discovered from my weeks on here being an amateur number gatherer - not something I have done before - the data is complex and confusing and people want simplicity And politcians want to be proven right. And jouralists usually to create a big story.

Not infrequently there is some data somewhere that lets them all do this if they choose.


All the rest of us can do is try to balance the different messages that result.
 
Scotland data is really bad

15 deaths

1456 cases - record 19.9 % on old measure 11.4% on new

500 in Greater Glasgow 393 Lanarkshire 198 Lothian and 116 Ayrshire & Arran

824 in hospital = 70 in one day. Most yet in a day I think.

69 on ventilators - up 8 on the day.

I fear these are the worst figures yet in wave two.

Nicola Sturgeon adds the cases do include some catch up after the latest world beating testing problem.
 
Many of todays cases are from the data that went AWOL on Sunday when tests were diverted from Scotland into England for processing in another lab.

The problem has now been resolved and people should now be getting results on time.

Most of the missing data from Sunday is in the data above but tomorrow may have a few more still to come in.

The same problem I suspect is why the North East are claiming they do not need tier 3 as their cases fell sharplyover the last two days as I reported in the evening regional case totals.

Likely to be more apparent than real if the same issue was ocurring there yet a fall is useful politically perhaps if you are trying to avoid Newcastle going into tier 3.
 
Scotland week to week to week

2 deaths two wks ago v 7 deaths last week v 15 deaths today

800 cases 2 wks ago v 1297 last week v 1456 today

13.1% positive 2 wks ago v 17.2 % last week v 19,1 % today.

262 in hospital 2 wks ago v 527 last week v 824 today

Ventilated 25 2 wks ago v 35 last week v 69 today

No way to present that other than as a very disturbing increase and again with restrictions like those coming to GM in force in that whole period appearing not to be making much difference if any at all in stemming rsing case numbers.

Though cases MAY be showing a slowdown which we will see once the lab thing is fully over.

That would be the first sign of the restrictions working as hospitalisations, ventilators and deaths would follow them.

Will it be any different in England? Probaby not. So it will be weeks before we know if this stems the hospital and death figures. But it first has to slow (which is step one that is showing signs of happening) then hopefully reduce the new cases not just plateau them. Though reducing is probably very optomistic given how infective Covid is.
 
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Wonder if Thursday and Friday is most likely to provide a realistic picture of the infection rate in Scotland in that case.

Either way, those hospital figures are grim.
 
They are, but the cases are not skyrocketing especially if several hundred of those today are really atop the 300 or so on Sunday.

This is a promising glimmer of hope and would be the first sign of progress. So the one right now we need to watch closely. The other measures are further down the chain after testing positive so any improvements there will lag behind.
 
Nicola Sturgeon's scientist just said that they have 'blunted the acceleration' and just more or less said what Ayrshire and I both did above. That we need to wait to see if things have plateaued.

He says the doubling time was every 9 -11 days. It is not that now. But he cannot yet say it is going down.

171 in intensive care he also just added - of which the 69 are ventilated.

They are at a managable level so far.

And now Nicola adding about how we will see any improvement to the admissions, ICU and deaths over the next few weeks as they are bound to lag.

Nice to actually see doctors and leaders clearly explaining where we are and what we see now and what we need to look out for and hope we see.

Whatever you think of Nicola she is a superb communicator. I dont live in Scotland but I never miss her because I know she will tell us things we need to hear.
 
Craig said:
More like doing his best to save a few. 3rd tier and this all stops spreading does it? It’s a fucking farce as usual from these shower of scumbags in charge.
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More like he is doing it for his own career given that mayoral elections are being held next May and he has done a shit job whilst in power. A failed narcissistic career politician trying to curry favour in time for next year. He is playing politics with people's health and it's not as if tier 2 restrictions have worked. Not heard him come out and tell people to stop acting like dick heads. He wanted a national lockdown two weeks ago now he is arguing against a local one
 
Healdplace said:
Nicola Sturgeon's scientist just said that they have 'blunted the acceleration' and just more or less said what Ayrshire and I both did above. That we need to wait to see if things have plateaued.

He says the doubling time was every 9 -11 days. It is not that now. But he cannot yet say it is going down.

171 in intensive care he also just added - of which the 69 are ventilated.

They are at a managable level so far.

And now Nicola adding about how we will see any improvement to the admissions, ICU and deaths over the next few weeks as they are bound to lag.

Nice to actually see doctors and leaders clearly explaining where we are and what we see now and what we need to look out for and hope we see.

Whatever you think of Nicola she is a superb communicator. I dont live in Scotland but I never miss her because I know she will tell us things we need to hear.
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Agree with all your comments and the communication is very clear but I think the figures in ITU were 171 cases of all types are in ITU of which 69 are Covid.
 
It seems we can't even get the basics right. I had to get a blood test at the hospital this morning as my local GP won't do them any more because of the risk (go figure). I walked through the main entrance totally unchalleged, and there were some strolling in without masks. On the way out someone was sat by the door but he did not appear to be doing any form of screening. There was no sign of a thermometer and he seemed more interested in his phone than checking who was passing by. If that is how seriously a major hospital is taking the risk then we have little hope. I have given them my feedback.
 
In the last week I’ve heard of numerous people having the virus, more being asked to isolate and more schoolchildren being sent home
Can’t help but feel this is about to explode in Manchester and burnham is just grandstanding
He will regret this big time....of course he won’t admit this
 
Eds said:
More like he is doing it for his own career given that mayoral elections are being held next May and he has done a shit job whilst in power. A failed narcissistic career politician trying to curry favour in time for next year. He is playing politics with people's health and it's not as if tier 2 restrictions have worked. Not heard him come out and tell people to stop acting like dick heads. He wanted a national lockdown two weeks ago now he is arguing against a local one
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Elections in may
Nail head hit
 
Cityfan said:
Agree with all your comments and the communication is very clear but I think the figures in ITU were 171 cases of all types are in ITU of which 69 are Covid.
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Yes he may have meant there are 171 in ICU altogether as you say.

The official data says 69 are in ventilated beds.

'Patients on ventilation' is how gov. uk actually lists them.

Though they are 4 days behind with the Scottish data as nobody evidently watches her in Gov.Uk to keep up to date information on the public data site! No wonder we are miles behind on other things

But it is likely anyone with Covid on ICU would be in a bed where this was possible in case it was urgently needed, perhaps? So perhaps ALL icu patients are classified as ventilated.

Though in Northern Ireland there are two separate lists - of Covid patients in ICU - and Covid patients on ventuilators - and the figure they cite daily is always the ventilator one not the ICU one, which is higher. So there at least there must be patients with Covid in ICU not on ventilators.
 
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Eds said:
More like he is doing it for his own career given that mayoral elections are being held next May and he has done a shit job whilst in power. A failed narcissistic career politician trying to curry favour in time for next year. He is playing politics with people's health and it's not as if tier 2 restrictions have worked. Not heard him come out and tell people to stop acting like dick heads. He wanted a national lockdown two weeks ago now he is arguing against a local one
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I’m not really arsed about him but you can hardly accuse him of playing politics when all the local tory MP’s are in agreement over this. You’re kind of going against your own point as it’s not doing a great deal for people’s health. We’ve been under restrictions since July and the infection rate has continued to rise. Do you really think closing bookies and pubs is going to suddenly make a dramatic difference? Government advisers have virtually said it’s unlikely to.All this is going to do is drive more people into poverty.

The point of a national lockdown would seem to be that it could work more quickly than this current shambles. Fairly obvious reason why this can’t work is people who don’t work in Manchester will have to continue to travel to other regions for financial reasons so eventually the high numbers will be nationwide anyway.
 
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