COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Cityfan]

The official data says 69 are in ventilated beds. Not sure that means they are actually on them.

I think there are 69 in ventilated beds who have covid and 102 in ventilated beds who have other conditions, I don't think they are actually putting out the numbers who are actually undergoing mechanical ventilation at any one time.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

So Lancashire received £42m for 1.5m, Merseyside received £44m for 2.5m. Government are offering Greater Manchester £22m for 2.8m people.

Manchester is being shafted.

sounds like you’re a bit behind the curve on this one.

The 22mill is the standard £8 per head everyone gets. The figures you’ve quoted for Lancs and Merseyside are the total amount given, I.e £8 per head plus whatever they managed to negotiate on top.

Gtr Mcr will get a minimum £22mill, plus whatever is negotiated on top. But the offer isn’t just £22mill

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

SAGE were asking for the circuit break / temporary lockdown about a month ago. I am not really pro the lockdown. I’m just pointing out a fact. The Government are trying to see what they see as the impact on the economy

If the surge capacity in ICU was overwhelmed (above current bed capacity) then I wonder if that would affect health and safety assessment for construction, engineering work etc.

They might have been calling for it but there’s still absolutely no proof that lockdowns work, whilst the collateral damage is incalculable.
As for your other point, the ICUs are full almost every year in winter, with the peak usually in January and that suggests a 8/10 week ‘circuit breaker’.
The people advocating this are the same group who told us a full national lockdown was the only way to tackle this virus and that wasn’t hugely successful.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

My wife is a medical secretary. She runs a waiting list and works for a consultant in the NHS. I don't want to compromise her position so I have kept my powder dry. When this is all over I will post her experience of what has happened in the last 6 months but make no mistake the knock on effect of this is massive and will be felt for many years in terms of waiting times. In normal clinic terms her consultant could see 22 face to face patients. They can only see 12 now. The operation times are longer because of the extra clean down time required between patients. You do the maths

Absolutely right mate. Most people have no idea whatsoever how much damage has been done to people’s physical and mental health both now and for years to come. Paediatric surgery has fallen off a cliff and one very prominent children’s hospital estimates it’ll take over THREE years to get the backlog sorted, even if it doesn’t have to close down again in the next three or 2. They normal treat about 40 brain tumours a year but, from March to September they’ve had not one. So, either there has been a miracle or they will finally turn up but will be well beyond treating.

 

[Out on blue 6]

Absolutely right mate. Most people have no idea whatsoever how much damage has been done to people’s physical and mental health both now and for years to come. Paediatric surgery has fallen off a cliff and one very prominent children’s hospital estimates it’ll take over THREE years to get the backlog sorted, even if it doesn’t have to close down again in the next three or 2. They normal treat about 40 brain tumours a year but, from March to September they’ve had not one. So, either there has been a miracle or they will finally turn up but will be well beyond treating.

Absolutely right mate. Most people have no idea whatsoever how much damage has been done to people’s physical and mental health both now and for years to come. Paediatric surgery has fallen off a cliff and one very prominent children’s hospital estimates it’ll take over THREE years to get the backlog sorted, even if it doesn’t have to close down again in the next three or 2. They normal treat about 40 brain tumours a year but, from March to September they’ve had not one. So, either there has been a miracle or they will finally turn up but will be well beyond treating.

Extra clinics are being run in my wife's department which is good but the backlog will be huge. Any extra clinic although necessary at the moment and for the foreseeable future drains the resources. The cost of extra clinics is large due to the need for full surgery teams. Whether you think extra measures are required in terms of lockdown is a personal opinion I respect everyone's view but the knock ons will be felt just in the NHS for many years if something isn't done to slow down admissions

 

[Cityfan]

Absolutely right mate. Most people have no idea whatsoever how much damage has been done to people’s physical and mental health both now and for years to come. Paediatric surgery has fallen off a cliff and one very prominent children’s hospital estimates it’ll take over THREE years to get the backlog sorted, even if it doesn’t have to close down again in the next three or 2. They normal treat about 40 brain tumours a year but, from March to September they’ve had not one. So, either there has been a miracle or they will finally turn up but will be well beyond treating.

Two different problems are being conflated .
The backlog otf treatment is not cuased by lockdown and societal measures. It is being caused by measures taken within hospitals to reduce transmission within hispitals and lack of capacity to deal with a highly infectious diseas and maintaining normal hospital functions.
Lockdown has other deleterious effects on the economy , mental health etc but is not responsible for reductions in treatment.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

there’s still absolutely no proof that lockdowns work,

Other than that they worked everywhere they were implemented that is. How many cases and deaths were there in the uk when we came out from most measures in July?

Nobody, *nobody* is in favour of lockdowns as a permanent control. The scientific and public health consensus seems very clear that a functioning test, track and trace system, as long as cases are low, can prevent the need for lockdowns.

But if case numbers are beyond the capacity of that system, the prediction, and reality, is that cases spiral out of control until restrictions of some sort are imposed.

Don't believe me?

Read the Jon Snow memo in the Lancet here

The purpose of these restrictions is to effectively suppress SARS-CoV-2 infections to low levels that allow rapid detection of localised outbreaks and rapid response through efficient and comprehensive find, test, trace, isolate, and support systems so life can return to near-normal without the need for generalised restrictions

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

 

[hilts]

In the last week I’ve heard of numerous people having the virus, more being asked to isolate and more schoolchildren being sent home
Can’t help but feel this is about to explode in Manchester and burnham is just grandstanding
He will regret this big time....of course he won’t admit this

Depends if you define grandstanding as trying to get some money so more people will be able to feed their kids or keep a roof over their head.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Two different problems are being conflated .
The backlog otf treatment is not cuased by lockdown and societal measures. It is being caused by measures taken within hospitals to reduce transmission within hispitals and lack of capacity to deal with a highly infectious diseas and maintaining normal hospital functions.
Lockdown has other deleterious effects on the economy , mental health etc but is not responsible for reductions in treatment.

It’s not responsible for reductions in treatment? Central government ordered all elective surgery to stop whilst Covid patients were being treated, so I’m not sure how that is conflating.
Not only that, people have just stopped turning up at hospitals. A&E attendances hugely down and this is still where many cancers, strokes, serious acute heart issues and a multitude of other things are spotted. Visiting a GP surgery where someone notices you’ve got your slippers on or are looking a bit more dishevelled than usual could we’ll be a clue about other things going on. Finally, when the bill comes due for this, the NHS and public services will be stripped back even further and paying for it for decades.

 

[Cityfan]

It’s not responsible for reductions in treatment? Central government ordered all elective surgery to stop whilst Covid patients were being treated, so I’m not sure how that is conflating.
Not only that, people have just stopped turning up at hospitals. A&E attendances hugely down and this is still where many cancers, strokes, serious acute heart issues and a multitude of other things are spotted. Visiting a GP surgery where someone notices you’ve got your slippers on or are looking a bit more dishevelled than usual could we’ll be a clue about other things going on. Finally, when the bill comes due for this, the NHS and public services will be stripped back even further and paying for it for decades.

The reason why elective surgery was stopped was that the operating theatres were needed for auxilliary ITU's and the system could not cope with dealing with highly infectious patients and normal patients at the same time.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data is just as scary today sadly.

10 deaths v 5 last wk and 1 wk before

1148 cases v 764 last wk v 626 wk before

Test positive % up from 6,6% to 9%

 

[Healdplace]

And England sadly is even worse.


134 England hospital deaths - 57 in the North West.

Up from 87 last week (there is the Sunday catch up effect I will add but no good way to spin this) and 43 then in the NW.

No words really needed. The number says it all.

But hundreds of deaths daily are starting to look a real threat if this nation does not stop arguing about what to do and start acting and actually doing something.

Fast.

 

[Healdplace]

Trouble is even if we did a national circuit breaker now that number of deaths would likely still be rising by the time it is over given how it takes weeks to move from testing positive to getting sick to entering hosputal to dying.

AS SAge said - the best time to act was a month ago.

The second best tine was last week.

The worst time is anywhere from now on in as we argue around it.

Yet another disaster made worse than it need be by the country delaying taking action it would seem.

 

[Out on blue 6]

It’s not responsible for reductions in treatment? Central government ordered all elective surgery to stop whilst Covid patients were being treated, so I’m not sure how that is conflating.
Not only that, people have just stopped turning up at hospitals. A&E attendances hugely down and this is still where many cancers, strokes, serious acute heart issues and a multitude of other things are spotted. Visiting a GP surgery where someone notices you’ve got your slippers on or are looking a bit more dishevelled than usual could we’ll be a clue about other things going on. Finally, when the bill comes due for this, the NHS and public services will be stripped back even further and paying for it for decades.

Tbh you both have made valid points and neither of you are wrong. It's a very complicated picture. Lots of people my wife asked to come in to the hospital refused to come in however much they were reassured it was safe. People were genuinely scared of coming in. Iconically enough the hospitals were never cleaner or probably safer than they have ever been.

 

[Healdplace]

BBC Now

Government now stated no agreement with GM and so talks are over.

The minister (Jennerick) has Informed Boris of this.

So no deal and imposition at 5 pm when Boris addresses the nation it seems.

We seem likely to end up with the worst possible outcome here.

An hour before GM sources had told the BBC they thought they were close to agreement with Jennerick and his team.

It seems to be over £50 million offered by the government or £70 million demanded by GM because of its greater size than the other regions put into Tier 3 so far. So the money per business would be less here which was unfair.

GM is apparently twice the size of Merseyside hence the disparity.

But someone was reading this situation all wrong.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Other than that they worked everywhere they were implemented that is. How many cases and deaths were there in the uk when we came out from most measures in July?

Nobody, *nobody* is in favour of lockdowns as a permanent control. The scientific and public health consensus seems very clear that a functioning test, track and trace system, as long as cases are low, can prevent the need for lockdowns.

But if case numbers are beyond the capacity of that system, the prediction, and reality, is that cases spiral out of control until restrictions of some sort are imposed.

Don't believe me?

Read the Jon Snow memo in the Lancet here

The purpose of these restrictions is to effectively suppress SARS-CoV-2 infections to low levels that allow rapid detection of localised outbreaks and rapid response through efficient and comprehensive find, test, trace, isolate, and support systems so life can return to near-normal without the need for generalised restrictions

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

Did they work? I know we’ve got a serially incompetent government but we’re led to believe that France, Spain, Belgium, Italy and even Germany are now having a ‘second wave’, so it appears not to have worked. If you’re saying it did, presumable we will be having 3, 4 or 5 lockdowns a year, as we will likely never again have a winter without a Covid death. Meanwhile more and more evidence of treatable deaths comes to light, whilst the average age of death for Covid patients is still 84, with an average of 2.3 comorbidities, including but not limited to dementia, Alzheimer’ and cancer. I’d be very interested to know the Covid death numbers of the patients who, all things being equal, would have survived 2020 and those who, in all likelihood, would not.

The lockdown to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 has caused harm to many people globally. Over the past 6 months it has been nearly impossible to discern what the UK government strategy is in relation to the virus: suppression, or following of the model used in Sweden to foster community immunity? In mid-September, things became clearer: the UK is planning on suppression until a vaccine or effective mass testing is in place. For good measure, UK residents have all been punished by new limits to the number of people socialising together, and have been warned that further restrictions could be imposed unless their supposedly reckless social behaviour improves. Frightening graphs depicting scenarios rather than predictions have been used to terrify people about the resurgence of the virus. However, it might be years before a safe vaccine is available, and the mass testing proposal dubbed moonshot is scientifically unsound and could do more harm than good during this crisis.

It might help of course if the people in charge seemed to have any plan regarding what they were doing. Tier 1/2/3 then what? Looks like you start off in 1, nothing much changes so you go into 2, stay there for a few weeks, then bounce into 3. Meanwhile, all these decisions are being made by people who can work from home and who’s jobs are under no threat whatsoever, whilst the evidence presented is becoming scanter by the day.

 

[BigJoe#1]

... just out of interest...

Why are the tests that are being introduced at Heathrow (£80 a throw) not being invested in and rolled out in the UK generally?

I mean they say 20 minute turnaround for results one hour maximum.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Did they work? I know we’ve got a serially incompetent government but we’re led to believe that France, Spain, Belgium, Italy and even Germany are now having a ‘second wave’, so it appears not to have worked.

I don't think you read my post.

The purpose of lockdowns is not, and never was to remove COVID entirely and forever.

I agree there is no discernible govt strategy and that's been disastrous.

 

[Scottyboi]

Did they work? I know we’ve got a serially incompetent government but we’re led to believe that France, Spain, Belgium, Italy and even Germany are now having a ‘second wave’, so it appears not to have worked. If you’re saying it did, presumable we will be having 3, 4 or 5 lockdowns a year, as we will likely never again have a winter without a Covid death. Meanwhile more and more evidence of treatable deaths comes to light, whilst the average age of death for Covid patients is still 84, with an average of 2.3 comorbidities, including but not limited to dementia, Alzheimer’ and cancer. I’d be very interested to know the Covid death numbers of the patients who, all things being equal, would have survived 2020 and those who, in all likelihood, would not.

The lockdown to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 has caused harm to many people globally. Over the past 6 months it has been nearly impossible to discern what the UK government strategy is in relation to the virus: suppression, or following of the model used in Sweden to foster community immunity? In mid-September, things became clearer: the UK is planning on suppression until a vaccine or effective mass testing is in place. For good measure, UK residents have all been punished by new limits to the number of people socialising together, and have been warned that further restrictions could be imposed unless their supposedly reckless social behaviour improves. Frightening graphs depicting scenarios rather than predictions have been used to terrify people about the resurgence of the virus. However, it might be years before a safe vaccine is available, and the mass testing proposal dubbed moonshot is scientifically unsound and could do more harm than good during this crisis.

It might help of course if the people in charge seemed to have any plan regarding what they were doing. Tier 1/2/3 then what? Looks like you start off in 1, nothing much changes so you go into 2, stay there for a few weeks, then bounce into 3. Meanwhile, all these decisions are being made by people who can work from home and who’s jobs are under no threat whatsoever, whilst the evidence presented is becoming scanter by the day.

Lockdowns only temporarily reduce figures, it is a world class track and trace system you implement as you ease lockdown that fixes it.

We did the lockdown and made a complete mess of the track and trace.

More lockdowns will prevent deaths for now until we are back again in a month or so time.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

... just out of interest...

Why are the tests that are being introduced at Heathrow (£80 a throw) not being invested in and rolled out in the UK generally?

I mean they say 20 minute turnaround for results one hour maximum.

Because it wouldn’t look too clever giving Serco another £12 billion whilst arguing with Burnham over £50M.
He should have just said he’d got £100M worth of PPE to sell, then just apologised for it not turning up......