I often mention var, injuries, some players having covid, lack of a preseason, condensed schedule etc, needing taken into account into all this. They are not excuses, they are just the context we seem to willfully ignore.
Well another one to that is lack of supporters. Against west ham, with a home crowd getting nervous as we surround their box the final 10 minutes or so, that nervousness translates to their players, they feel under pressure more, and they probably arent as comfortable defending that resolutely at the end. We probably find a way to win that game in stoppage time, like we did so many times in our title seasons (they weren't all convincing wins, remember, they all count and the narrow ones are important). Similarly, does a referee really give 3 pens against a home team in front of a home crowd?
All these small things add up, margins that can decide things, and add up points and confidence, that when a meaningful run on top form comes, it matters.
If VaR had done its job, west ham wouldn't have had a one goal lead to defend half the game, or a 1 goal draw to defend the rest.