COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[give it to gordon]

I do find it all abit confusing from what I understand by going onto the nhs website, if someone who I share a home with test positive I start self isolating. But if a workmate who I work closely with share cab etc test positive I dont self isolate.
Yet some places I know if one person is positive they closed the shop for at least 14 days, I guess that's just down to that company.

I must admit I havent kept up to speed with what Boris has been saying as he lost me with the 'go to work dont go to work , use the tubes dont use the tubes' etc speech.

 

[ell]

Its weird seeing on the news London still looks empty as if everyones working from home, yet up here everyone I know who works in an office is back in. I did wonder if that explained why we were getting hit a bit harder, but now the R rate has shot up in London again.

 

[M18CTID]

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

Very informative. Also very concerning, particularly this bit:

The calculations shown in the three different scenarios are based on studies of how aerosol transmission occurs, using real outbreaks that have been analyzed in detail. A very pertinent case with regard to understanding the dynamics of indoor transmission was a choir rehearsal in Washington State, in the United States, in March. Only 61 of the 120 members of the choir attended the rehearsal, and efforts were made to maintain a safe distance and hygiene measures. But unknown to them, they were in a maximum risk scenario: no masks, no ventilation, singing and sharing space over a prolonged period. Just one infected person passed the virus on to 53 people in the space of two-and-a-half hours. Some of those infected were 14 meters away, so only aerosols would explain the transmission. Two of those who caught the virus died.

 

[Chippy_boy]

There are still only a very small number of reinfections globally so it seems that immunity does last for a while in the majority of people.

Sure - I don't think that is in doubt. But whether it lasts for say 12 months, is another matter. And also it kind of misses the point. If 45m people to become infected just the once, and if the mortality rate is say 0.5% then that could mean 200,000 deaths. And that's clearly far from OK. Not to mention the fact that the mortality rate would probably go up if we couldn't accommodate in ICU, those who needed ventilators.

 

[grunge]

Sure - I don't think that is in doubt. But whether it lasts for say 12 months, is another matter. And also it kind of misses the point. If 45m people to become infected just the once, and if the mortality rate is say 0.5% then that could mean 200,000 deaths. And that's clearly far from OK. Not to mention the fact that the mortality rate would probably go up if we couldn't accommodate in ICU, those who needed ventilators.

From tests on people that had Sars1 the ones they tested they still have immunity now. which is a good sign for this one.

 

[Manc in London]

No, they have mostly worked from home and continue to do so.

Yeah, we don't have shops, schools, universities, colleges, a transport system, pubs and restaurants. We also only have 1,000,000 living in HMOs. Of course, transmission will be low

 

[True_Blue69]

Sure - I don't think that is in doubt. But whether it lasts for say 12 months, is another matter. And also it kind of misses the point. If 45m people to become infected just the once, and if the mortality rate is say 0.5% then that could mean 200,000 deaths. And that's clearly far from OK. Not to mention the fact that the mortality rate would probably go up if we couldn't accommodate in ICU, those who needed ventilators.

That 45 million known infections is probably more like 450 million actual infections, but I get what you're saying. My point was really that over the course of 12-18 months which immunity may realistically last, there may be enough people that have caught it to put the virus to bed.

 

[Manc in London]

Its weird seeing on the news London still looks empty as if everyones working from home, yet up here everyone I know who works in an office is back in. I did wonder if that explained why we were getting hit a bit harder, but now the R rate has shot up in London again.

London is not empty. A few selected street shots in the City does not represent London. London is far more than Westminster and City of London. Go to the likes of Enfield Town, High Barnet and Wood Green (don't go if you have a choice) and you will find things look fairly normal.

The R rate in London has shot-up according to one calculation. Not all of them. I honestly don't now which one to trust. If you think what is happening in the North now is bad, times it by a lot, and you have London in April. Over a month, 6,000 people died in the capital.

 

[kaz7]

Coronavirus: Lab tests show there's a massive difference in the effectiveness of the best and worst face masks

Which? tested 15 reusable face coverings, discovering that the worst allowed 93% of potentially harmful particles to escape.

news.sky.com

 

[kaz7]

That 45 million known infections is probably more like 450 million actual infections, but I get what you're saying. My point was really that over the course of 12-18 months which immunity may realistically last, there may be enough people that have caught it to put the virus to bed.

immunity does not last 12-18 months , it is not lasting more than four months

 

[Manc in London]

immunity does not last 12-18 months , it is not lasting more than four months

Immunity via the antibodies, you mean.

People who had SARS have immunity via their T cells 17 years later. Is there a reason to think this will be very different in relation to Covid19?

 

[blueparrot]

immunity does not last 12-18 months , it is not lasting more than four months

We don't know that, seems antibodies fall after 6 months, immunity isn't antibodies. It can come from t cell memory too..

 

[mosssideblue]

That 45 million known infections is probably more like 450 million actual infections, but I get what you're saying. My point was really that over the course of 12-18 months which immunity may realistically last, there may be enough people that have caught it to put the virus to bed.

Where are you getting 12-18 months from?

 

[kaz7]

That 45 million known infections is probably more like 450 million actual infections, but I get what you're saying. My point was really that over the course of 12-18 months which immunity may realistically last, there may be enough people that have caught it to put the virus to bed.

immunity does not lat 12-18 months , it is not lasting more than four months

Immunity via the antibodies, you mean.

People who had SARS have immunity via their T cells 17 years later. Is there a reason to think this will be very different in relation to Covid19?

Everything about covid is different , we have been taken by surprise all along , we assumed a lot based on other coronaviruses

 

[grunge]

immunity does not last 12-18 months , it is not lasting more than four months

Dr Campbell did a video on it yesterday. I think the Antibodies reports in papers is a lot of miss representing real data, Antibody drop off is a natural event after an infection.



All in all if immunity only lasted four months then we would be seeing far more people getting reinfected now seeing as we are 8 months in.

 

[kaz7]

We don't know that, seems antibodies fall after 6 months, immunity isn't antibodies. It can come from t cell memory too..

If that was the case would it not be reported , the last link i read it said there is not a test for t cells so far

 

[kaz7]

Dr Campbell did a video on it yesterday. I think the Antibodies reports in papers is a lot of miss representing real data, Antibody drop off is a natural event after an infection.

Thanks, i will have a listen in a bit

 

[blueparrot]

If that was the case would it not be reported , the last link i read it said there is not a test for t cells so far

1. Robust memory T cell responses detected months after COVID-19 infection, even in the absence of detectable circulating antibodies specific for SARS-CoV-2, indicating a previously unappreciated heterogeneity of immunity against COVID-19.
2. Time to exposure was associated with the emergence of stem-like memory SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8 T cells

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 — Immunology

www.immunology.ox.ac.uk

Persistent immune memory of COVID-19 found in recovered patient T cells | University of Oxford

Oxford University researchers have found that infection with COVID-19 produces a robust T cell response, including inducing T cell ‘memory’ to potentially fight future infections.

www.ox.ac.uk

 

[kaz7]

Dr Campbell did a video on it yesterday. I think the Antibodies reports in papers is a lot of miss representing real data, Antibody drop off is a natural event after an infection.



All in all if immunity only lasted four months then we would be seeing far more people getting reinfected now seeing as we are 8 months in.

What if you only get it mild or no symptoms second time ? You probably wont get a test

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

We must have vastly underestimated the virus within the community, in the early days. Which obviously suggests there's huge amount of resistance out there already.
Or I'm being over imaginative with this?