COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Bluemanc100]

Who's policing it though, there isn't enough police to do the job.

You wouldn’t need to fine many before the word got around... we have to do something if people aren’t doing it themselves

SWMBO is on the vulnerable list because of her Lymphoma, I’m Asthmatic so we have a genuine reason to stay safe but I’d like to think we would apply an ounce of intelligence regardless...

Saying that my Mum was tested positive last week and is on the mend after attending a social club in Middleton where ~6 others also caught the virus so as I’ve got some of her genes I could go full circle and stop giving a fuck

 

[squirtyflower]

It's like the house was on fire and someone offered the government a fire-extinguisher, but they decided to wait for a bit in case the fire went away or the fire brigade arrived imminently.

Now we're gonna take the fire-extinguisher but by now it won't put the fire out on its own.

More like the owner of the house saw it was on fire but opted to go out for a few pints with their mates, then for a curry and a sing song in a club.
On their return they were pissed off that everyone else in the street said WTF so they went round to each and every one of them chanting ‘Covid’s coming home’ in their face.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

It is been inevitable since Sage advised a circuit breaker weeks ago. And as many of us said in here then - the longer they wait making the same mistake as in March the longer we will be in it and the more it will cost the economy. And the less likely it is to actually work.

If you try to save £100 by not buying house insurance as bush fire season approaches and it costs you all your savings to rebuild your house after your gamble fails what was billed a prudent decision looks like a catastrophic mistake.

The circuit breaker might have only delayed the inevitable but it would have bought time this rather dog's dinner of multiple tiers does not - not least because simplicity matters if you want people to do the right thing. Give them rules you need to study for an hour to work out and rather obviously most will not bother or just guess.

None of this is wise if you are already struggling with a populace fed up of restrictions.

The messaging and communication has been terrible throughout this mess. I have no idea who they employ to do that job but I would never hire them if I needed clear messaging on something.

Whatever else the lockdown was it was simple, clearly indicative of dire urgency and people responded. If you tell them half the country is fine and does not need any restrictions it gives an easy out to assume that means them or its unfair if it does not mean everyone pulling together.

Dividing the nation is the worst first step you can take. It creates no lock down envy.

The basic rules being. Hands Face Space. That's pretty much user friendly in my book. Bearing in mind that's pretty much been the message all through.
If folk can't follow that then no matter of wet nursing will get them by.

 

[squirtyflower]

“Poor people”?? I thought you were serous for a second.... This is all Cummins’ fault... Oh dear

It set a poor example but you can’t blame that incident for the shit that’s going on at the minute...

I think we’re past the point of no return and the situation is going to get even fucking messier than it has been but we have to make people realise that they can continue to do what the fuck they like...

Just because Cummins stuck his head in the fire, does that mean we all should... does it bollocks..

Sorry mate, but that’s a whoooosh moment

 

[Healdplace]

I agree with what you’ve said but I think we need to add consequences for anybody breaking the rules ... make an example of people and fine them.. it’s the only way we can deter people from being utter c***s

As I have said in here before the Isle of Man kept Civid free because they did not just fine someone who imported the disease onto the island from which people then died. They gave them a chance to do the right thing. They did not. So they locked them up for the period of the is9olation.

They had very few who stuck two fingers up to the rules after that.

The point is if people think compliance is an option they will only comply if it suits them or they are decent people. Neither are the problem here. And the only way to deter them is to make it worse for them personally not to comply than to comply.

 

[Healdplace]

It's like the house was on fire and someone offered the government a fire-extinguisher, but they decided to wait for a bit in case the fire went away or the fire brigade arrived imminently.

Now we're gonna take the fire-extinguisher but by now it won't put the fire out on its own.

Sadly that's right.

 

[cleavers]

Quite a few parents of kids in the same classes as mine have been posting stuff on social media about breaks away this half-term. We cancelled our own holiday, but the kids are asking why when their mates got to go away. All a bit dispiriting.

What's even worse is that while you have been sensible, it won't prevent you getting it, because others ignore the regulations, but you have a better chance than most, so carry on doing what is best for you. I've a week off in a couple of weeks, and want to get away somewhere, but I won't risk it until a few days before, some on here will call me selfish for going if I do, but as much as I want to avoid this, I also want to have some sort of life as well, it's a balance, and ultimately it's all our own choice.

I've seen my elderly parents (they won't thank me for that) once since christmas, my son once since the cup final, my daughter 3 times since christmas, I've seen my best friend and his wife once since March, I don't like it, but I'm not going to let it get me down. I've new colleagues at work, some of who I've trained, but I have still never met them in person, it's a mad world we are currently living in.

 

[Bluemanc100]

Sorry mate, but that’s a whoooosh moment

I wish the whole fucking thing would woosh off.. that for sUte

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Just watched Sky news talking about the spread of the virus, they were quoting the figures reported by Imperial as if it were the actual case loads rather than their projections, yet at the same they were reporting that cases in both Nottingham and Merseyside are falling and have been since before Tier 3 was introduced.
Whilst in no way am I doubting that we are in a serious situation. Why is it that figures produced by Imperial are accepted as accurate when they are based on a random sample then extrapolated rather than the figures produced by Cambridge University and the ONS which seem to tally on a more regular basis and are actually using test data?
As I have said previously I think the media sometimes presents the worse case scenario as fact because it generates more clicks and generates more viewers.

 

[squirtyflower]

Just watched Sky news talking about the spread of the virus, they were quoting the figures reported by Imperial as if it were the actual case loads rather than their projections, yet at the same they were reporting that cases in both Nottingham and Merseyside are falling and have been since before Tier 3 was introduced.
Whilst in no way am I doubting that we are in a serious situation. Why is it that figures produced by Imperial are accepted as accurate when they are based on a random sample then extrapolated rather than the figures produced by Cambridge University and the ONS which seem to tally on a more regular basis and are actually using test data?
As I have said previously I think the media sometimes presents the worse case scenario as fact because it generates more clicks and generates more viewers.

It keeps you in your place mate, stop dissing our wonderful media.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Sadly that's right.

It is right. But then on top of that, vast swathes of the nation grabbed any nearby elderly and threw them into the blaze. It’s not just the government, it’s the public too. Both have let us down.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

The basic rules being. Hands Face Space. That's pretty much user friendly in my book. Bearing in mind that's pretty much been the message all through.
If folk can't follow that then no matter of wet nursing will get them by.

I went to my local Tesco express before. Next to it is the local Indian restaurant. It is the smallest restaurant I’ve seen and to be honest does more takeaways than meals in. The tables are tightly packed together. Bearing in mind we are in Tier 3, you would think that people would avoid......nope. Absolutely rammed. It holds about 24 people when full. 12 on each side and there must have been 16-18 people in there with probably 20 people coming in for takeaways whilst they are eating.

I’m looking at that and thinking “what the fuck are you lot doing” absolute madness. This is in a town where we now have 145 people in hospital with Covid, of which 17 are in intensive care. In April we had 124/18. It’s incredible that many people are just being so reckless with other people’s health even if they don’t value their own. A friend of ours has just lost a grandparent and her aunt and Uncle are both in hospital and unlikely to make it. She could lose three members of her family in a week. If people can’t make sensible decisions then the government need to step in. We are not far from this being totally out of control and decisions being made on who to try to save and who to let die.

 

[Healdplace]

The basic rules being. Hands Face Space. That's pretty much user friendly in my book. Bearing in mind that's pretty much been the message all through.
If folk can't follow that then no matter of wet nursing will get them by.

Hands Face Space is a good message I agree. But I don't know a single person who really understands what you can/cannot do in these multiple tiers. None of which are really much different from one another to even feel like it is worth avoiding going up the next rung.

Yes Cummings was a huge error of judgement and I have long suspected he was too knowing of government secrets to be let go as otherwise it made zero sense to be so forgiving as the consequences were obvious that it would erode trust.

But in truth you have to bring the people with you by making them understand. There has been zero targeted messaging using icons of the different generations aiming to explain to the different groups what they need to do and why. Its all focused through politicians and doctors who all have different ideas and who most of the public long since gave up caring about enough to respond to on trust.

The trust erosion can only be solved by politicians and spin doctors not being the patronising educators of what we all must do. They seem to think only they can stay this and it reinforces their power over the public because the public trust them.

But they don't and they need to wake up and get people the public DO trust to tell it straight and explain why they have to do what they do.

The nation responded to Captain Tom. If a politician had done what he did they would not.

They have responded to Marcus Rashford and politicians still do not get why they have and why they are not instead listening to them speak politics not kids lives.

They have dismally failed to understand why that matters.

The ego has to get sidelined and the messaging handed over to those whom people will listen to.

 

[Odd socks]

Between the March lockdown when we shutdown and start of October I knew of two people die who I sort of knew but it still felt like waiting for the big bang.
Today three people who I do know ( not family) died, all covid related, everyone relaxed the rigor of the early days and thinking it has gone away.
Nobody wore masks they stayed apart and washed and washed, now it's like a cloak of steel, fuck the rules I got a mask on.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Ayrshire that older age range in Scotland is going the same way as in N Ireland.

Surely happening in Wales and England too.

Raw figures seem similar in number but the % in older age ranges increasing. That maybe indicates more of a drop in younger groups though which *might* lead in the future to a reduction in the elderly numbers eventually. Sort of the same as how the uptick began with the younger population becoming infected and eventually spreading to elderly groups, perhaps any decrease would be in similar fashion.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Hands Face Space is a good message I agree. But I don't know a single person who really understands what you can/cannot do in these multiple tiers. None of which are really much different from one another to even feel like it is worth avoiding going up the next rung.

Yes Cummings was a huge error of judgement and I have long suspected he was too knowing of government secrets to be let go as otherwise it made zero sense to be so forgiving as the consequences were obvious that it would erode trust.

But in truth you have to bring the people with you by making them understand. There has been zero targeted messaging using icons of the different generations aiming to explain to the different groups what they need to do and why. Its all focused through politicians and doctors who all have different ideas and who most of the public long since gave up caring about enough to respond to on trust.

The trust erosion can only be solved by politicians and spin doctors not being the patronising educators of what we all must do. They seem to think only they can stay this and it reinforces their power over the public because the public trust them.

But they don't and they need to wake up and get people the public DO trust to tell it straight and explain why they have to do what they do.

The nation responded to Captain Tom. If a politician had done what he did they would not.

They have responded to Marcus Rashford and politicians still do not get why they have and why they are not instead listening to them speak politics not kids lives.

They have dismally failed to understand why that matters.

The ego has to get sidelined and the messaging handed over to those whom people will listen to.

The emphasis of the message is easy for all to understand. Thankfully, there's a huge proportion of the nation who appear to be following it. Let's hope the thoughtful and caring in society manage to overcome the the virus to the benefit of all who give a hoot.
It really isn't difficult, if we all try. .

 

[inbetween]

No chance. 670,000 possibles using your guestimate.
Remove the under 50s from that and we're talking maybe 150,000. As we're at around 60,000 it'll need to get it's skates on especially as it's reached the 60k before we really knew how to keep the ball in the air.
Daily deaths, as tragic as they are, will be nowhere near those of the early days.

The WHO average IFR estimate is 0.1% so it will be many deaths regardless of age, some studies have that average IFR as higher. Bare in mind that there are over 5 million people aged over 75 whose risk of death after infection is supposedly 10%. For those who are even older and who have other conditions, it's basically a death sentence.

I don't understand therefore how deaths won't reach the levels they did before? It's inevitable that deaths will go up and keep going up unless I've missed something and the elderly and vulnerable are all locked away somewhere?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The WHO average IFR estimate is 0.1% so it will be many deaths regardless of age, some studies have that average IFR as higher. Bare in mind that there are over 5 million people aged over 75's whose risk of death after infection is supposedly 10%. For those who are even older and who have other conditions, it's basically a death sentence.

I don't understand therefore how deaths won't reach the levels they did before? It's inevitable that deaths will go up and keep going up unless I've missed something and the elderly and vulnerable are all locked away somewhere?

It seemed to diminish and rise like any other respiratory disease with the weather. Stopped in its tracks by an unusually warm spring back in April /may iirc. We are getting towards Feb /March figures in some respects and winter hasn't really started yet. We might get a warm February or March if we are lucky, but even then that means we are staring at a good three months of peak respiratory illness.

 

[WNRH]

"poems and Maths" is just as important in situations like this. If you don't grasp statsistics, exponential growth, probabilities - you don't understand how a virus spreads or the effectiveness of you as an individual isolating and breaking the chain of infections.

And English Literature, "shit like poems" is where we teach kids analytical skills you apply every time you read an article.

You assume that everyone is as intelligent as yourself or enjoys having a thirst for knowledge. There is too much crap taught at schools, the whole of education is a mess.

He is right, students should be taught about food, more physical exercise, basic arithmetic without a calculator, how to conduct letters, emails, how to spell! They should be taught about finance how it all works in the real world.

No one needs to know about some war in the 1800's, or how rocks erode over time or what pi is. If you do, there's the internet at the touch of a button to explore. I could not stand history at school, it was boring, now you will find me watching all sorts of videos online about all kinds of events.

One thing i will never understand is that everyone has their own unique body, it will never leave you and you can never replace it and yet 99% of people would not know apart from the main organs what is inside their body or how it works.

How many people know what flu is? I would imagine most would say it's a virus you get in the winter that knocks you out for a few days. But how many know what actually happens and why? And how many know why the medicine we take and what's in it makes us better and recover from it? This is the stuff that should be taught in schools not half the crap that is currently on the curriculum.

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

You assume that everyone is as intelligent as yourself or enjoys having a thirst for knowledge. There is too much crap taught at schools, the whole of education is a mess.

He is right, students should be taught about food, more physical exercise, basic arithmetic without a calculator, how to conduct letters, emails, how to spell! They should be taught about finance how it all works in the real world.

No one needs to know about some war in the 1800's, or how rocks erode over time or what pi is. If you do, there's the internet at the touch of a button to explore. I could not stand history at school, it was boring, now you will find me watching all sorts of videos online about all kinds of events.

One thing i will never understand is that everyone has their own unique body, it will never leave you and you can never replace it and yet 99% of people would not know apart from the main organs what is inside their body or how it works.

How many people know what flu is? I would imagine most would say it's a virus you get in the winter that knocks you out for a few days. But how many know what actually happens and why? And how many know why the medicine we take and what's in it makes us better and recover from it? This is the stuff that should be taught in schools not half the crap that is currently on the curriculum.

What's the 4th paragraph about? You can't teach "stuff" until you understand the basics, moron