COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Summerbuzz]

Well this has gone about as well as expected.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard: (Fantasy Island edition)

Manchester 3174 - up from 256 (or whatever.....) Total cases 28, 550 . Weekly 5155. Pop score up 574 (new world record ha!) to gatecrash the 5000 club at 5164. Weekly Pop (these will be fun today!) up miles to 932. A rise of 529 in the day and by far the highest ever in the UK - if they even bother using these stupidly compromised numbers to claim that as true in their Red Watch List.

Salford 520 - up from 145. The other Uni city paying the price. Total cases 12, 258. Weekly 1649. Pop score up 201 to 4736. Weekly Pop up 158 to 637.

Tameside 177 - up from 89. Total cases 9491. Weekly 1022. Pop score up 78 to 4190. Weekly Pop up 30 to 451.

Oldham 124 - down from 173. Total cases 13, 295. Weekly 1426. Pop score up 52 to 5607. A little closer to Blackburn who are still the highest at 5800 but whose numbers fell today too. Weekly Pop down 18 to 601.

Wigan 90 - down from 171. Total cases 14, 780. Weekly 1500. Pop score up 24 to 4494. Weekly Pop down 17 to 453.

Rochdale 82 - down from 156. Total cases 11, 193. Weekly 1190. Pop score up 37 to join Oldham and Manchester as number three now in the 5000 club. Weekly Pop down 31 to 535.

Bolton 2 - down from 181. Just missed being the fourth negative number today. Pop score up (under) 1 to 4713. Weekly Pop down 55 to 415.

Bury MINUS 37 - down from 113. (These minus numbers occur as they have had more cases taken away from location of test or uni students as cases added on today....We should be back to 'normal' numbers tomorrow).
Total cases 8696. Weekly 836. Pop score DOWN 20 to 4553 (only way a Pop Score can go down is with minus numbers). Weekly Pop down 74 to 438.

Stockport MINUS 68 - down from 115. Total cases 9456. Weekly 841. Pop score down 23 to 3223. Weekly Pop down 60 to 287. Down to below 300 for first time since early October.

Trafford MINUS 206 - even the best Minus score record now for the best performing borough. Not seen anywhere losing more cases than here today. Total cases 8014. Weekly 568 - way ahead now of the other two boroughs sub 1000. Pop score down 87 to 3376 giving it a big boost in the race to catch Stockport for best Pop Score - gap now just 153 - lowest it has been in many weeks. Weekly Pop down by a giant 131 to 241 to give it a commanding lead as the best current weekly pop score in GM.

 

[squirtyflower]

I am happy to give the Government credit for doing what they have regarding the economy and the support they have given such as the furlough scheme, however I struggle giving any credit for them having the highest death rate in Europe especially given that we had the benefit of seeing what happened in Spain and Italy.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
Belgium and Spain both have higher death rates. However I’m not going to side with any government as they all seem to be as hapless as one another.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Could be something to do with this.

So basically the numbers overall are the same but students have been reassigned to where they are studying. Bad news for University towns not their home address.
I suspect that if they had done this earlier lockdown across the whole country may not have happened.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Newcastle seems to have taken biggest hit

I’m guessing this makes the trend of a ‘drop’ in cases in Manchester over the last few weeks even more pronounced than it already was. I think @Healdplace has already alluded as such?

 

[Healdplace]

Newcastle seems to have taken biggest hit

Thank you for posting these. The North East region more than doubling today from 1483 to 3365 suggested that Newcastle was badly impacted. So not surprised. But the scale on that graph shows numbers wise it will still be Manchester with the most added cases. Pop scores might be different. But they are below Manchester so probably not.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not too sure that argument exists anymore as Spain and Italy also saw what happened in Spain and Italy, yet are still experiencing a bad 2nd wave. I don't think there was much the government could have done to stop it. The fact most people don't show any symptoms makes it all but impossible to control.

Which is why I am delighted with the Liverpool moonshot results for last week. They need to roll this out to other bad areas now! It really could be a game changer for the UK.
Localised test and trace rolling out this week too. I am hopeful that we may have finally got a grip.

 

[Healdplace]

I’m guessing this makes the trend of a ‘drop’ in cases in Manchester over the last few weeks even more pronounced than it already was. I think @Healdplace has already alluded as such?

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

 

[Healdplace]

I guess the data tomorrow will be particularly interesting. As deaths will inevitably rise as they always do on Tuesdays and Wednesdays because of the weekend lag. And testing might also go back up from its very low level today. And the numbers should be 'normal' in other respects compared with today.

So we will see where we are more clearly.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

Looks like the Government are working their way through the old adage "Lies, damned lies and statistics "

 

[Manc in London]

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

Fair play to you for posting the numbers, identifying the trends and adding a narrative. It adds value, unlike the way the press report the data. Appreciate it's not easy as it is akin to nailing jelly to a wall die to the raw data produced by PHE not being of the desired quality as it is not complete and up to date.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

I see Sweden’s approach is now biting them on the arse.

 

[cleavers]

Thanks for posting that As you will see from my posts above it is. The Universities are clearly the biggest driver of the numbers. Its odd to decide to do this now though. Presumably it was upping numbers in London too much so they finally noticed!

I think that's a bit unfair, there are many thousands of students in London from other parts of the country, so the same applies.

Cases should be allocated to where the case is, not to an area where they weren't tested, the real issue is that it was originally wrong.

The other serious issue was letting students travel from everywhere to be together in September, that was a major mistake and has driven this second wave across many parts.

 

[Healdplace]

As for other university locations around the UK today.

I actually found a BIGGER rise than Manchester. Nottingham. Another Uni city. Its cases rose by 1948 - up from 120 the day before - so a 16 x increase from norm - Manchester's rise was about 11 times its norm. As a result Nottingham's Pop Score rose by 591 - 17 more than Manchester. But at 4705 still below Manchester overall.

Leeds must be a candidate for another badly impacted as its cases rose from 533 (itself high) to 2005 today. And its pop score up by 252 - half Manchester's but higher than Salford or most others I have noticed.

Birmingham added 1583 cases via the big uni reallocation, but its Pop score went up by just 139.

Leicester added 616 - by far its most and 3 x normal. Pop score up 176. Still way below Manchester.

Liverpool was impacted but to nothing like the same degree. Its cases rose from 180 to 582 - but not a crazy number like the others above. One that Liverpool were getting daily a few weeks back. So its Pop score only rose by 117

 

[abu13]

Never let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
Belgium and Spain both have higher death rates. However I’m not going to side with any government as they all seem to be as hapless as one another.

I agree Spain and Belgium have a higher death rate per 100,00 of the population but we are the worst overall regarding the actual number of deaths

As of 16 November 2020, 267 394 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: United Kingdom (51 934), Italy (45 229), France (44 548), Spain (40 769), Belgium (14 421),

 

[Healdplace]

I think that's a bit unfair, there are many thousands of students in London from other parts of the country, so the same applies.

Cases should be allocated to where the case is, not to an area where they weren't tested, the real issue is that it was originally wrong.

The other serious issue was letting students travel from everywhere to be together in September, that was a major mistake and has driven this second wave across many parts.

It was a flippant remark and happy to withdraw it. But the numbers are well down in London v the NE and NW and Midlands so for whatever reason the change benefited the south and not the north.

But now I understand more it is a one off event and I agree it was really odd they were not doing it this way in the first place.

Would be interesting to know though who asked for this retrospective change and why as most of it dates back to late September/early October.

And as you see in GM it had a lot of benefit to boroughs like Trafford with a huge fall in cases. So it was not just down south that gained from this.

 

[worsleyweb]

I agree Spain and Belgium have a higher death rate per 100,00 of the population but we are the worst overall regarding the actual number of deaths

As of 16 November 2020, 267 394 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: United Kingdom (51 934), Italy (45 229), France (44 548), Spain (40 769), Belgium (14 421),

well we have a higher population and two huge concentrates in population in London and the north west. Add in the world busiest airport and the fact we are all fat fucks and I am not suprised. We have less as you say than Spain and Belgium.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Seems the Germans do have a sense of humour....

 

[cleavers]

It was a flippant remark and happy to withdraw it. But the numbers are well down in London v the NE and NW and Midlands so for whatever reason the change benefited the south and not the north.

Fair enough, but my point was we shouldn't play silly games, a lot of students in London live in London and commute daily, so their numbers won't be re-allocated out of London, yet a lot more students from London do move to big uni's out of London.

I'm not disputing that messing with the figures from 2 months ago isn't a mess, but it was mess then (and now), because of how it was allocated. I actually think this is good news in a way because (assuming students are not spreading it widely now) the Manchester cases will show the biggest drop shortly.

 

[Healdplace]

Other areas and the data today:

Blackburn had just 83 cases continuing its recent falls. At 5800 it still has the highest Pop but Oldham are closing daily. Or were. Who knows from here on.

Bradford was perhaps the biggest surprise. One of the worst in recent weeks its cases today fell from 438 (and many days of 400/500 area scores) to just 99 today so benefited from university redistribution I presume. Its Pop score rise by just 18. Very rare these days with any 'normal' numbers.

On Merseyside Knowsley also plummeted to just 34 - fifth straight fall from what was the first place to top 4000 pop score a few weeks ago when Merseyside was in trouble. It has yet to reach 5000 so far has it fallen.

Wirral also benefited a lot from the reallocation and went from 85 cases yesterday - to MINUS 85 cases today.

And Rossendale also had its lowest numbers in many weeks with its first single figure number at just 6 cases compared with the 50/60/70 it was getting daily up to the past week or so.