COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Manc in London]

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

Fair play to you for posting the numbers, identifying the trends and adding a narrative. It adds value, unlike the way the press report the data. Appreciate it's not easy as it is akin to nailing jelly to a wall die to the raw data produced by PHE not being of the desired quality as it is not complete and up to date.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

I see Sweden’s approach is now biting them on the arse.

 

[cleavers]

Thanks for posting that As you will see from my posts above it is. The Universities are clearly the biggest driver of the numbers. Its odd to decide to do this now though. Presumably it was upping numbers in London too much so they finally noticed!

I think that's a bit unfair, there are many thousands of students in London from other parts of the country, so the same applies.

Cases should be allocated to where the case is, not to an area where they weren't tested, the real issue is that it was originally wrong.

The other serious issue was letting students travel from everywhere to be together in September, that was a major mistake and has driven this second wave across many parts.

 

[Healdplace]

As for other university locations around the UK today.

I actually found a BIGGER rise than Manchester. Nottingham. Another Uni city. Its cases rose by 1948 - up from 120 the day before - so a 16 x increase from norm - Manchester's rise was about 11 times its norm. As a result Nottingham's Pop Score rose by 591 - 17 more than Manchester. But at 4705 still below Manchester overall.

Leeds must be a candidate for another badly impacted as its cases rose from 533 (itself high) to 2005 today. And its pop score up by 252 - half Manchester's but higher than Salford or most others I have noticed.

Birmingham added 1583 cases via the big uni reallocation, but its Pop score went up by just 139.

Leicester added 616 - by far its most and 3 x normal. Pop score up 176. Still way below Manchester.

Liverpool was impacted but to nothing like the same degree. Its cases rose from 180 to 582 - but not a crazy number like the others above. One that Liverpool were getting daily a few weeks back. So its Pop score only rose by 117

 

[abu13]

Never let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
Belgium and Spain both have higher death rates. However I’m not going to side with any government as they all seem to be as hapless as one another.

I agree Spain and Belgium have a higher death rate per 100,00 of the population but we are the worst overall regarding the actual number of deaths

As of 16 November 2020, 267 394 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: United Kingdom (51 934), Italy (45 229), France (44 548), Spain (40 769), Belgium (14 421),

 

[Healdplace]

I think that's a bit unfair, there are many thousands of students in London from other parts of the country, so the same applies.

Cases should be allocated to where the case is, not to an area where they weren't tested, the real issue is that it was originally wrong.

The other serious issue was letting students travel from everywhere to be together in September, that was a major mistake and has driven this second wave across many parts.

It was a flippant remark and happy to withdraw it. But the numbers are well down in London v the NE and NW and Midlands so for whatever reason the change benefited the south and not the north.

But now I understand more it is a one off event and I agree it was really odd they were not doing it this way in the first place.

Would be interesting to know though who asked for this retrospective change and why as most of it dates back to late September/early October.

And as you see in GM it had a lot of benefit to boroughs like Trafford with a huge fall in cases. So it was not just down south that gained from this.

 

[worsleyweb]

I agree Spain and Belgium have a higher death rate per 100,00 of the population but we are the worst overall regarding the actual number of deaths

As of 16 November 2020, 267 394 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: United Kingdom (51 934), Italy (45 229), France (44 548), Spain (40 769), Belgium (14 421),

well we have a higher population and two huge concentrates in population in London and the north west. Add in the world busiest airport and the fact we are all fat fucks and I am not suprised. We have less as you say than Spain and Belgium.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Seems the Germans do have a sense of humour....

 

[cleavers]

It was a flippant remark and happy to withdraw it. But the numbers are well down in London v the NE and NW and Midlands so for whatever reason the change benefited the south and not the north.

Fair enough, but my point was we shouldn't play silly games, a lot of students in London live in London and commute daily, so their numbers won't be re-allocated out of London, yet a lot more students from London do move to big uni's out of London.

I'm not disputing that messing with the figures from 2 months ago isn't a mess, but it was mess then (and now), because of how it was allocated. I actually think this is good news in a way because (assuming students are not spreading it widely now) the Manchester cases will show the biggest drop shortly.

 

[Healdplace]

Other areas and the data today:

Blackburn had just 83 cases continuing its recent falls. At 5800 it still has the highest Pop but Oldham are closing daily. Or were. Who knows from here on.

Bradford was perhaps the biggest surprise. One of the worst in recent weeks its cases today fell from 438 (and many days of 400/500 area scores) to just 99 today so benefited from university redistribution I presume. Its Pop score rise by just 18. Very rare these days with any 'normal' numbers.

On Merseyside Knowsley also plummeted to just 34 - fifth straight fall from what was the first place to top 4000 pop score a few weeks ago when Merseyside was in trouble. It has yet to reach 5000 so far has it fallen.

Wirral also benefited a lot from the reallocation and went from 85 cases yesterday - to MINUS 85 cases today.

And Rossendale also had its lowest numbers in many weeks with its first single figure number at just 6 cases compared with the 50/60/70 it was getting daily up to the past week or so.