COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[twosips]

Wish I shared your optimism.
I don't see a lot of next year any better if I'm honest. I reckon you won't be able to go places unless you have been vaccinated, holidays abroad, restaurants etc. What if you don't want the jab? what will happen then?
Certainly January-June I've written off. It's absolutely never ending.

It's very easy to feel this way mate, things are tough and inherent cynicism and pessimism overwhelms me sometimes too... but I'd like to point you towards this post of mine from the other day which contained a story which really cheered me up:

Fascinating read this btw! Vaccines could genuinely change things drastically inside 2/3 months.

How Covid-19 vaccines could rapidly reduce the UK’s death rate

There is a very real possibility of Britain largely eliminating the fatality risk of the virus by early spring.

www.newstatesman.com

It contains this graphic which is brilliant. View attachment 6700

Vaccinating just 2% of the country (over 85s) could reduce 40% of the fatality risk, and that's only 3.3m doses which we should have in Jan/Feb. That scale moves up too as you can see by the graph. Really positive and encouraging, presuming we manage to roll it out properly! Obviously it does depend on uptake too of course.

We *only* have to vaccinate 19% of the country to reduce the death risk, potentially, by 86%! That's loads! For example, a 500 day death could be reduced to just 70. 19% of the country is just over 10m, which is very attainable. Add that to the inevitable herd immunity from winter spread (grim) and the fact that it's likely there will be a natural drop off in Spring time onwards anyway, and I think we'll be seeing much lower death numbers a few months into the year. If we're seeing notably lower numbers, we'll be opening up. I'm almost certain.

Obviously there are caveats. It's rough estimated maths, that graph is based on Pfizer's efficacy, plus it relies on strong uptake, no major logistical problems etc etc, but I do believe we are on our way out of this and this shows that we could see a difference sooner rather than too much later. We've already vaccinated roughly 1 in every 300 people in the country (0.37% - based on a quick estimation of roughly 250k people already being vaccinated based on numbers done last week), all of who are vulnerable, so that's great! It'll be a grim winter, but we should be in a much better place before we know it. Hang on in there mate. Brighter days will come, I promise!x

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

My mum had her vaccination this morning and hair done all in the same day, for an 81 year old life doesn’t get much better

 

[NeilYoungIsBack]

Unfortunately only nationwide rules are effective. And we will almost certainly be in them by early January if the next 2 weeks go as most fear.

Like in Wales?

 

[Ric]

I’d like to know how they think headteachers and schools can organise this when they have just finished for Christmas this afternoon.

Yes, seems a bit of an unrealistic/unfair request if they haven't been given any prior warning. Fairly sure neither of my children's schools are prepared for this.

 

[squirtyflower]

Yes, seems a bit of an unrealistic/unfair request if they haven't been given any prior warning. Fairly sure neither of my children's schools are prepared for this.

I’ll find out tonight if they knew in advance.
Tbf the schools have been given the heads up in advance of public announcement.

 

[OccupiedPalestineBlues]

If GM had gone into tier 2, would anyone have had any confidence booking anything? I certainly wouldn't as Id have expected us to be out of it within 2 weeks. My son was looking at holidays for Spring yesterday and I immediately said 'Dont. Just wait' And Im someone who usually has the whole following year booked up. After battling to get refunds for flights, accommodation, plays/shows etc over the summer I am very reticent to look further than the next few days.

Some airlines are now giving covid guarantees whereby if your holiday is prevented due to lockdowns, either here or abroad, they’ll allow you to move your flight to a later date at no additional charge.
It’s that business or no business for them so the manoeuvre is understandable.
If you want to book without undue risk it might be a way forward?

On a personal note; I wouldn’t go on a plane regardless because, on almost all airlinenes, the air you breath is recycled without UV purging so it’s akin to French kissing everyone aboard - yep, even the smeggy bloke across the isle with the halitosis . and covid is far more contagious than colds or flu.

 

[BlueHammer85]

luckily i can work from home, so tier 2 and tier 3 really doesn't bother me, Pubs were a bit rubbish anyway in tier 2.

 

[BlueAnorak]

So you're talking about the political elite in London? (Who weirdly seem to still have the backing of lots of people on this forum). Rather than the whole of London.

Journalists too.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales 52 deaths - up from 33 last week

11, 468 cases - up a bit from 1968 last week

23.3% positivity too scarily.

As explained yesterday and earlier 10 - 11 K of these are cases that got lost in the system for a week when they decided to do a systems upgrade when they were in the midst of a crisis. Added on in one go.

 

[cleavers]

Im practically tier 2 don’t worry about it. Where I live has less cases than the tier 2 district down the road so there’s no risk.

This perfectly illustrates how stupid this tier system is, at least where I live and work are now both in tier 3, even more stupid was moving an area close to the west Midlands and not far from South Wales into tier 1.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I can never understand why when changes occur it's from Saturday or whenever....if the need is there do it from 6PM tonight, the south who are moving to 3 will just be a massive piss-up for a couple of days.

They want people to go out on the raz and catch it so their decision can be justified.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data still creeping up too sadly.

Deaths 12 - was 14 last week

Cases 656 - was 441 last week. Highest case numbers here today for several weeks.

Positivity rate high too at 19%

 

[BlueAnorak]

Dr Paul Chrisp, director of the centre for guidelines at NICE, said: "While there is insufficient evidence to recommend vitamin D for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 at this time, we encourage people to follow government advice on taking the supplement throughout the winter period"

So why do you suppose you get daily injections of calcitriol (the hormone the Liver generates from vitamin D) when you're admitted to hospital with Covid?

 

[ganganvince]

So why do you suppose you get daily injections of calcitriol (the hormone the Liver generates from vitamin D) when you're admitted to hospital with Covid?

No natural light

 

[Toney’s bookie]

On a personal note; I wouldn’t go on a plane regardless because, on almost all airlinenes, the air you breath is recycled without UV purging so it’s akin to French kissing everyone aboard - yep, even the smeggy bloke across the isle with the halitosis . and covid is far more contagious than colds or flu.

Not at all accurate actually but a common impression that many have. Some links in this post -> COVID-19 — Coronavirus

 

[kaz7]

So why do you suppose you get daily injections of calcitriol (the hormone the Liver generates from vitamin D) when you're admitted to hospital with Covid?

I dont know, experimental ?


Generally

"Yesterday 25,161 cases were reported and there are 18,038 people in hospital with coronavirus in the UK. We must keep suppressing this virus."

Mr Hancock urged people to take "personal responsibility" in keeping COVID-19 under control, adding: "It's so vital that everyone sticks at it and does the right thing, especially over this Christmas period."

COVID-19: Almost all Tier 3 areas to remain the same - with top restrictions widened for the South East

The health secretary tells MPs he "regrets" moving more areas into the highest level of restrictions, but says it is "necessary".

news.sky.com

 

[Craig]

Sigh

If people want to be wild and have a meal out the world won’t end. Utter bollocks as usual from the government especially as they moved Liverpool to tier 2 with very similar numbers to ours now.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly too England hospital deaths sharp rise also.

340 - up from 295 last week. Mostly not in the NW however - which fell again.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY: Total / NW total / NW % of England

351 / 81 NW / 23%

295 / 52 NW / 18%

289 / 48 NW / 17%

340 / 46 NW / 14% TODAY

Steadily falling NW % but numbers rising as we head into a third wave currently largely focused down south. With the north not out of the woods by any means but not the focus as it was. For now.

 

[Healdplace]

Other England hospital details:

The regional numbers speak volumes.

Versus the 46 NW (which was down for 3 rd straight week) - here are the other areas today: Midlands 74 - down from 77 last week despite 56 more deaths in England.

NE/Yorkshire 47 - down from 50 last week.

But London - 64 - UP from 34 to its highest deaths since the Spring.

South East 63 - UP from 32 to its highest deaths since the Spring.

East - 34 this week - did not record last week as it was not that high to mention.

We see the way the pandemic has shifted to these southern areas first in rising cases, then in rising hospital numbers overtaking the NW in past week and still climbing, then in ventilators with London rising to nearly 300 in past week - most in UK and double the NW which was top (though never that high) just a month ago.

Now as this unfortunately grim but predictable 4 week or so cycle always goes translating into deaths.