COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Bovril]

You don't like the truth.

I have heard it all in the Political/Brexit thread, I don't post in there anymore thus not wanting to see it here. So what is the truth ?

 

[mosssideblue]

1st night after Bristol brought from Tier 3 to T2 and Police had to be brought in to break up gangs partying outside the pubs.

 

[Nightmare Walking]

And play off final :-)

The queue for the play off final tickets was absolutely fantastic. Sleeping bag, few beers and was set for the night. Everyone was buzzing.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

I have heard it all in the Political/Brexit thread, I don't post in there anymore thus not wanting to see it here. So what is the truth ?

You can't handle the truth, what's the truth, damn it? ;)

 

[Marvin]

Not maybe a useful line of thought but I think Mr Hancock or Health officials might find themselves facing questions about the spatial association of clusters and the variant. I've been wondering about the SE cluster for weeks. If I knew they correlated to variants I'd be shouting about it as anyone would. What about SAGE? It's a really obvious red flag.

Perhaps this is the type of thing you need hard evidence for before you do anything though as there might have been other explanations too.

The main thing now is to find out about the effects on the vaccines. If they are OK then perhaps how we roll out the vaccines might change? We need to know more don't we.

 

[twosips]

Not maybe a useful line of thought but I think Mr Hancock or Health officials might find themselves facing questions about the spatial association of clusters and the variant. I've been wondering about the SE cluster for weeks. If I knew they correlated to variants I'd be shouting about it as anyone would. What about SAGE? It's a really obvious red flag.

Perhaps this is the type of thing you need hard evidence for before you do anything though as there might have been other explanations too.

The main thing now is to find out about the effects on the vaccines. If they are OK then perhaps how we roll out the vaccines might change? We need to know more don't we.

I'm gonna be honest, 99% of people on this forum will have no idea what you're talking about re spatial association of clusters etc. Could you explain in layman terms?

 

[xgorton]

Not maybe a useful line of thought but I think Mr Hancock or Health officials might find themselves facing questions about the spatial association of clusters and the variant. I've been wondering about the SE cluster for weeks. If I knew they correlated to variants I'd be shouting about it as anyone would. What about SAGE? It's a really obvious red flag.

Perhaps this is the type of thing you need hard evidence for before you do anything though as there might have been other explanations too.

The main thing now is to find out about the effects on the vaccines. If they are OK then perhaps how we roll out the vaccines might change? We need to know more don't we.

We just need the truth.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Some advice please, Blues?

I've not been feeling 100 per cent today, don't have a temp (36.2) but have a runny nose and coughing a little to clear mucus from my throat.

Obviously my wife and son tested positive last week and I didn't, so still self-isolating for ten days.

Do I have to go and get another test, or is the self-isolation period factoring in the probability of contacting it anyway.

My symptoms started earlier this afternoon, so must I have an additional self-isolation period after the original ten days from last Wednesday?

Does my family also have to self-isolate now beyond the ten days we were all already doing?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

circuit breaker didn’t work in Wales

latest national lockdown didn’t work in London or Kent

national lockdowns in NI and Scotland now after similar messing about

at some point SAGE are going to have to start taking some blame

edit:

it was them who said for months not to wear masks and there was no point shutting airports or adding quarantine for travellers

One word: Cheltenham.

 

[AJ71]

I've not been feeling 100 per cent today, don't have a temp (36.2) but have a runny nose and coughing a little to clear mucus from my throat.

Saw a poster in hospital last week listing the symptoms of Covid, the common cold and flu. A runny nose wasn't a covid symptom and I believe the cough (if you get it) is a dry one. Sounds like you may just have a common cold?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Saw a poster in hospital last week listing the symptoms of Covid, the common cold and flu. A runny nose wasn't a covid symptom and I believe the cough (if you get it) is a dry one. Sounds like you may just have a common cold?

I thought the same re nose and cough.

 

[Del_Bosque]

This is from the Gov website mate, about what to do if you live with someone who tests positive


if you develop symptoms while you are isolating, arrange to have a COVID-19 PCR test. If your test result is positive, follow the advice for people with COVID-19 to stay at home and start a further full 10 day isolation period. This begins when your symptoms started, regardless of where you are in your original 10 day isolation period. This means that your total isolation period will be longer than 10 days.

 

[kippax4ever]

I understand I am far from alone in terms of having no sense of stability in plans right now but this is easily the worst I have felt during all of this. Not a post to point fingers, politicise or blame anyone but i'm absolutely crushed. It can only get better eventually but for me this is a dark day.

Understandable mate,but stay strong like we all have to,
The brains out there will beat this virus.
It's not like we need 40 points to stay up anymore,
Stay positive mate,

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

This is from the Gov website mate, about what to do if you live with someone who tests positive


if you develop symptoms while you are isolating, arrange to have a COVID-19 PCR test. If your test result is positive, follow the advice for people with COVID-19 to stay at home and start a further full 10 day isolation period. This begins when your symptoms started, regardless of where you are in your original 10 day isolation period. This means that your total isolation period will be longer than 10 days.

Thanks mate.

 

[Healdplace]

Other watch areas for posters:

SWANSEA

248 cases - up from 234. Total cases 11, 763. Pop score up 101 to 4763. Big rise today. But not as bad as elsewhere.


DARTFORD 172 cases - up from 88. Total cases 3908. Pop score up 153 to 3471 - this is a huge rise in a day. It is almost NINE times what Wigan scored today (lowest pop score rise in GM today).

The weekly Pop Score rises big from 560 to 664.

MEDWAY 622 cases - up from 354. Total cases 12, 216. Pop score up 224 - this is the biggest rise anywhere in a day I can recall outside the day when thousands of student cases were reallocated in a reorganisation. It is a huge increase I am sorry to report. It is ten times the rise of most GM boroughs today and more than that for some.

The weekly Pop score rises from 861 to a gigantic 978. Beyond where any GM borough was at the worst.

Sorry to bring such awful news. Let us hope the restrictions get this under control.

 

[Two Gun Bob]

One word: Cheltenham.

And the 450,000 incoming monthly overeseas oddities to our scepter-ed isle that were left unchecked.
And that football-fest were they let madrid fans in who were at the time were the epicenter of covidial nonsense
And and I guess we could go on and on and on but we wont because we are ever such a polite indigenous populace.

 

[Cassandra]

I think we should be grateful to the UK scientists for identifying the changes.

We now have to hope that the accumulated changes are not sufficient to significantly reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines. It's possible they could have an effect as anything which changes the 3D structure will affect the binding potential of antibodies. This is what they call antigenic drift.

The irony of this is that as we increase the amount of immunity in the host population the virus is going to become more efficient at changing and we will force the virus to adapt. Human's become Gods although it doesn't feel like it now does it.

I agree with this post. Earlier on this topic I wrote (#48,700 )that I was puzzled by the, to me, relatively low rate of infections relative to those who I felt would have been exposed to the virus. I postulated that this could be due to genetic variations in the fine structure of the sites where the the virus attached itself to cell surfaces. This it seemed to me could account not just the overall lower than expected infectivity at that time, but also for differences in infectivity between different ethnic groups, a slight correlation with blood type and vulnerability to infection and how different members of a household might be totally differently affected by apparently similar exposure to the virus. In particular I included the following:-

.... So to me there seems to be a possibility that some folk are naturally more resistant to the virus because their cell surfaces do not have or have fewer available, binding sites. Of course further mutations during the course of a pandemic could reduce this specificity.

It seems to me that this has now happened. Whether, as Marvin indicates as a possibility, the change will affect the effectiveness of the vaccine is a matter that I expect the guys at Porton Down are giving a fair bit of attention to at the moment.

 

[BlueAnorak]

A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published.

Estimated increase in R 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation.

Terrible case numbers today too, 35,000

It's doubling every 6 days under tier 3. That's ~100x increase by end Jan. I think we're now into "full national lock down until vulnerable are vaccinated" territory, unless those estimates are significantly out.

Doubtless that won't be announced until Johnson has repeatedly promised not to, insulted anyone who suggests it and then waited until the absolute last moment.

If its only increased the R number by 0.93 then its only 45% more infectious.

 

[kaz7]

COVID patient in Italy found with new virus strain

The coronavirus patient in Italy found with the same new strain of the virus behind a severe surge in infections London and southeast England returned on a flight from the UK in the last few days.

The patient and his partner had been in the UK and landed at Rome's Fiumicino airport earlier this week, the Italian health ministry said.

They are now in isolation.

 

[Cityfan]

If its only increased the R number by 0.93 then its only 45% more infectious.

That would depend on the R number it had increased from.
R nought and Rt which is the R number in a specific context are different.