Coronavirus (2021) thread

[cleavers]

They’re freight only. Just checked. The crew don’t even get off in SA

OK they must be taking 2 crews then, but they are the regular "passenger" service VS602.

 

[Summerbuzz]

It's not just over 60's, TBF. Covid isn't just you die or you recover fully. People over 40's body's do not recover anywhere near as well as they did a few years earlier. You collect a couple of minor things every few years that just don't go back to normal.

Problem with COVID is that the body seemingly gets a bit... 'agitated' around day 9,10. The immune response loses patience and goes ballistic. That is a very destructive thing.

It is like you chasing a spider around your bedroom. You start by shaking out the bedclothes. Then grab a slipper and start the hunt. The longer it goes on, the more it evades you then reappears, the more spooked you are. You work your way up to a tennis racket... cricket bat... ...hammer ...fishing net and trident. I mean, you've lost it, right. A net for a spider? YES! And whatever else you can grab. Spray it with that can of Wd-40!

You may just end up using a flame thrower to incinerate your bedclothes. Standing there next to a pile of ashes, covered in soot, room full of smoke, but... no more spider, right?!

That, unfortunately, is not a million miles away from what happens when ouor unbalanced, impatient immune systems get medieval with a virus that 'can linger' (my doctor's words).

Aging past forty is like... having less and less money available to replace the things you damage in the process. You'll never afford another of those lush matresses. And being OLD and TIRED OF LIFE, you're not as surgical or careful with your attacks.

TBH not even a 20 year old can afford to incinerate the bed... could be a few months sleeping on the floor.

Seriously, complete recovery in a week or two is looking less assured for people as time goes on. Especially at winter, and with higher viral loads. It's a serious health problem. We've got it wrong. It's not just murder flu. It's murder flu, with a bit of TB thrown in. It will have to be dealt with in a similarly harsh and determined way.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

The thing I'd like to see set out is a timeline for what gets relaxed, not for dates as they are fluid but for vaccination milestones.

How many of the at risk groups or population in total have to be vaccinated for:

Schools Open
Shops Open
Indoor Household Mixing
Hospitality Open
Curfews over
End of Social Distancing
Mass Events at full capacity

It's clearly not all happening at once but if the 13.5 million figure only gets schools open. then we are waiting further months and months for millions more to be vaccinated before we get a social life back it will be beyond grim.

Starmer should be hammering that home, but Jeremy Hunt or Tony Blair seem more likely to ask the tough questions.

There are too many unknowns to have that amount of certainty.

What is the efficiency of both current vaccines, how long before they really become effective and do they reduce/prevent transmission are just the main ones.

There is really only Plan A available now, which is to vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible and then to see what the outcome is.

 

[kaz7]

The thing I'd like to see set out is a timeline for what gets relaxed, not for dates as they are fluid but for vaccination milestones.

How many of the at risk groups or population in total have to be vaccinated for:

Schools Open
Shops Open
Indoor Household Mixing
Hospitality Open
Curfews over
End of Social Distancing
Mass Events at full capacity

It's clearly not all happening at once but if the 13.5 million figure only gets schools open. then we are waiting further months and months for millions more to be vaccinated before we get a social life back it will be beyond grim.

Starmer should be hammering that home, but Jeremy Hunt or Tony Blair seem more likely to ask the tough questions.

I am not a boris lover but he cant put a times or numbers on it , every time he does he looks like a div when it doent happen , we just dont know , we have to play it by ear , expect the summer to be relatively normal is my guess but next winter we might have to do social distancing to some extent but that is just my opinion

 

[denislawsbackheel]

They haven’t banned flights from SA.
It might be full of returning Brits.
It’s all other nationals coming from SA who are banned.

Travel ban implemented to protect public health following South Africa COVID-19 outbreak

New travel restrictions on passengers arriving in England from South Africa.

www.gov.uk

 

[marco]

So, 1 in 50 they say, there will be regional varriations no doubt but seriously expect that figure to become 1 in 5 before any vaccination reward kicks in, to late im afraid.as soon as this new strain was found it should have been lockdown then

 

[ayrshire_blue]

France becomes first country to start publishing daily vaccination figures. Starting point appears to be 5,000. They won't provide a cumulative total, but I guess that's easy enough worked out...

Isn't there scope for the UK and it's devolved governments to do the same? Could help a little with moral at a time which will be difficult for thousands of people.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Loved Whitty's put down of Peston's question of stretching the time between jabs being a risk to mutation.
"... Using a process of not very difficult mathematics it is clear that the public benefits are huge".
He then went on to describe the RISK of public heath outcomes v mutation, stating that vaccination of large proportions of the population giving the virus nowhere to go was a far greater driver to mutation.
I laughed loudly I have to say.

 

[BlueAnorak]

So, 1 in 50 they say, there will be regional varriations no doubt but seriously expect that figure to become 1 in 5 before any vaccination reward kicks in, to late im afraid.as soon as this new strain was found it should have been lockdown then

20-20 hindsight is wonderful. The CMO's met first thing on Monday morning and raised the level to 5. Sturgeon declared lockdiwn immediately. Boris did 5 hours later.
You have to access the effect of measures before locking down.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Agreed , we are at a dangerous stage in some ways worse than before , i do trust sage and the mouthpiece that is whitty but i still have the WHO shouting test test test at us in my head in march !

With what shall they test with deatr elisa with what? No test infrastructure except university labs which PHE didn't want to use due to being incompetent.

 

[kaz7]

France becomes first country to start publishing daily vaccination figures. Starting point appears to be 5,000. They won't provide a cumulative total, but I guess that's easy enough worked out...

Isn't there scope for the UK and it's devolved governments to do the same? Could help a little with moral at a time which will be difficult for thousands of people.

From monday we get daily totals , bit late but at least we will get them

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL data:

Today

Patients DOWN 159 to 26, 467.

Ventilators UP 68 to 2378

Regional split: P Patients. V ventilators with up/down in last 24 hours.

EAST P 3520 (down 103) V 241 (down 20) See where this trend goes as cases were up here today.

LONDON P 6816 (up 83) V 866 (up 52) London still struggling and the ventilators are up 267 in 7 days. That is not far short of a 50% rise in a week. Very scary.

MIDLANDS P 4553 (up 54) V 377 (up 10) Also going up still. Not quite as badly as London but worse than first wave and now about 35% more patients than in April and closing in like London on ventilators then too.

NE/YORKSHIRE P 2860 (up 32) V 190 (down 2) Still coping better than any region and below numbers from October. They seem to have the lowest numbers of the new variant, Though hard to see that staying this way. But could emerge from lockdown even better than the NW if it keeps it from taking over like elsewhere.

SOUTH EAST 4379 (down a whopping 351). V 364 (up 8) A hefty fall but record cases today (over 10,000 - only the second region after London to go into five figures - NW not got close as yet). So need to watch trends here over coming days. East - London - South East will likely show us if the lockdown is working first via case numbers and hospital admissions. Deaths sadly not impacted until late January at least

SOUTH WEST 1414 (up 13) V 98 (up 1). The smallest and most underpopulated region but clocking around 3000 cases a day - about half of the NW - so any moves here will be instructive. During the Summer they had O people on a ventilator which shows you the base level here as others never got to that point.

AND

NORTH WEST 2925 (up 113) V 242 (up 19). Biggest rise of the day and concerning as patients up 700 since Christmas and ventilators up 80.

The North West is on a precipice right now and these numbers seem to warn that deaths will start to rise soon too, Hope I am wrong.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If this is accurate, and then when added to all the other infections that have happened, plus the ones that are about to, then surely it should have an impact on that much debated herd immunity threshold? That's a *huge* amount of people. It has to have an impact, surely?

Not if herd immunity is 80%. Still less than 25% have had it. That's about 7 weeks of unchecked infection.

 

[Healdplace]

Not if herd immunity is 80%. Still less than 25% have had it. That's about 7 weeks of infection.

The vaccine AND increasing cases via the new strain are heading for the same destination by different routes. As herd immunity one way or the other is the only way out. So in a sense high cases plus vaccines given to as many vulnerable as fast as possible to stop them getting sick are attacking that goal from two sides.

Might be the plan but they will not say so if it is as it inevitably risks lives whilst achieving it.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The vaccine AND increasing cases via the new strain are heading for the same destination by different routes. As herd immunity one way or the other is the only way out. So in a sense high cases plus vaccines given to as many vulnerable as fast as possible to stop them getting sick are attacking that goal from two sides.

Might be the plan but they will not say so if it is as it inevitably risks lives whilst achieving it.

Vaccination is getting to herd immunity.
That's still only 50% by mid Feb.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

The vaccine AND increasing cases via the new strain are heading for the same destination by different routes. As herd immunity one way or the other is the only way out. So in a sense high cases plus vaccines given to as many vulnerable as fast as possible to stop them getting sick are attacking that goal from two sides.

Might be the plan but they will not say so if it is as it inevitably risks lives whilst achieving it.

It might not be the 'plan' but the reality of where we are with the new strain. Possibly the rise in cases can be slowed but maybe not heavily reversed. If that is the case then vaccinating the most at risk groups as quickly as possible combined with mitigating case numbers might be the only realistic option.

 

[grunge]

With what shall they test with deatr elisa with what? No test infrastructure except university labs which PHE didn't want to use due to being incompetent.

Well they could have Used the 8 or so weeks lead time we had to get stuff up and running, the NHS has testing labs that were not used, could have drafted in biotech companies etc etc. Instead the gov waiting till the last min to farm it out to mates’s businesses.

within 6 weeks or so of really starting to push to get testing going they were at 100k tests a day. Ergo they could have been ready for 100k tests a day before it even really started here

 

[BlueAnorak]

Well they could have Used the 8 or so weeks lead time we had to get stuff up and running, the NHS has testing labs that were not used, could have drafted in biotech companies etc etc. Instead the gov waiting till the last min to farm it out to mates’s businesses.

As I said at the time DHSC, PHE and NHS management are incompetent. I've tried to deliver IT systems to these fuckers and they are clueless cretins. If they told me it was Tuesday, I'd check.

 

[Healdplace]

It might not be the 'plan' but the reality of where we are with the new strain. Possibly the rise in cases can be slowed but maybe not heavily reversed. If that is the case then vaccinating the most at risk groups as quickly as possible combined with mitigating case numbers might be the only realistic option.

I agree it might. I am probably being too generous to the government calling it a plan. But really the delays at every turn that make things worse make very little sense if there was a different plan. As if you delay dealing with a virus in full flight then it multiplies. Most efforts to stop a virus involve doing the opposite.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

From monday we get daily totals , bit late but at least we will get them

Wasn't aware of that. Good stuff, cheers Kaz.