Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

Germany has now had 3 consecutive days with 1000+ fatalities - 29k new cases today as well. Lots in care homes infected - they're finding it so difficult to keep it out at the moment. I think we can say it's highly probable that the new strain is now rampant there too.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Excess deaths rather than official death numbers are generally seen as the most reliable comparator. By that measure, I think we were the worst in Europe first wave, don't have a ready reference though.

You think or you want to think?

What are 'excess deaths' and why are people talking about them?

During the first half of July 2020, you may have seen reports that there were no “excess deaths” in the UK.

www.bhf.org.uk

International comparisons
Making comparisons between countries using number of Covid-19 deaths can be inaccurate and misleading, as the way that coronavirus deaths are recorded and reported varies between different countries. Using excess deaths allows us to measure the overall impact that Covid-19 has had on deaths in each country, without those issues.

But it is too soon to measure which country has the most or fewest deaths from the pandemic, either directly or indirectly.

As Covid-19 has spread across the world, each country has reached different stages of the outbreak at different times - some will have reached their peak in excess deaths, and some may still have an increase in excess deaths to come.

We will only really know the full impact that Covid-19 has had on each country once the pandemic has truly come to an end, which sadly, may be many months away.

 

[cleavers]

There’s no way I didn’t have it and my Mrs did.

It is possible, I read a story saying that even sleeping in the same bed only gives you about 40% risk of catching it strangely, can't remember where it was, also she may have passed it on, but you haven't developed enough virus to test positive yet, hope it's the former obviously.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If you’ve had COVID do you need a jab?

Yes. Your immunity needs topping up.

 

[Healdplace]

BBC North West news just now discussing the massive explosion of cases on Merseyside and in Cheshire areas like Warrington that as I have been reporting in here has been driving the NW numbers up up and away in past 2/3 weeks.

Local figures on Merseyside have just concluded that over Christmas it was all the fault of people coming there from higher tier areas (wonder who!) that realised they could take advantage of pubs and restaurants being open.

The region is now in massive trouble, with hospitals about to be overrun and the top few locations in Britainfor case numbers being on Merseyside.

If only if only someone had actually worked out that this might happen and it had not come out of the blue like this.

Except.....it was totally obvious and discussed in here many times as we first saw it in July when the Bolton outbreak clobbered the then lowest town in GM by residents going there as they were open to everyone because their cases were low. Wigan has to this day never fully recovered from that and its why I kept pointing this out over and over in here as it was the key reason why the tiers were clearly not going to work as intended. Though not the only reason.

The government knew these facts. Hancock used it pre Christmas when moving all of GM up to the top tier saying you could not separate good and bad boroughs out (citing Trafford and Stockport - now two of the worst!) as they would just spread the virus from bad to good taking advantage of the different restrictions. Especially with the new super spreader strain.

Yet he seems utterly unaware that the North West is like one big region about the size of Greater London and exactly the same thing would happen to anywhere within it that he kept at a lower level.

We saw it coming a mile off in here. It is astounding that it was ignored by the experts and I really doubt they never saw this either so I am baffled as to why as surely they did not want the NW to turn into a powder keg exactly like London had in December?

I am not remotely triumphalist about this. I have relatives on Merseyside and lived and worked there for years and it is heart breaking they are paying such a price for games played to 'reward' them amidst a political bunfight with the regions.

I really hope someone gets their comeuppance over the totally foreseeable tragedy that is unfolding here by them not putting the whole NW in the same tier as some kind of doggie treat for playing nice.

Nobody should be doing that when human lives are at stake as Merseyside and Cheshire are starting to realise and reap the whirlwind given as a Christmas Present they really really should have declined.

The only good thing that can come out of this is dropping the wretched tier system for good as a failed experiment. Yet we are still being told that this is how we will exit lockdown INTO the different tiers.

This needs to be the end to that idea so that those who have paid with illness and their lives have not done so in vain.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

BBC North West news just now discussing the massive explosion of cases on Merseyside and in Cheshire areas like Warrington that as I have been reporting in here has been driving the NW numbers up up and away in past 2/3 weeks.

Local figures on Merseyside have just concluded that over Christmas it was all the fault of people coming there from higher tier areas (wonder who!) that realised they could take advantage of pubs and restaurants being open.

The region is now in massive trouble, with hospitals about to be overrun and the top few locations in Britainfor case numbers being on Merseyside.

If only if only someone had actually worked out that this might happen and it had not come out of the blue like this.

Except.....it was totally obvious and discussed in here many times as we first saw it in July when the Bolton outbreak clobbered the then lowest town in GM by residents going there as they were open to everyone because their cases were low. Wigan has to this day never fully recovered from that and its why I kept pointing this out over and over in here as it was the key reason why the tiers were clearly not going to work as intended. Though not the only reason.

The government knew these facts. Hancock used it pre Christmas when moving all of GM up to the top tier saying you could not separate good and bad boroughs out (citing Trafford and Stockport - now two of the worst!) as they would just spread the virus from bad to good taking advantage of the different restrictions. Especially with the new super spreader strain.

Yet he seems utterly unaware that the North West is like one big region about the size of Greater London and exactly the same thing would happen to anywhere within it that he kept at a lower level.

We saw it coming a mile off in here. It is astounding that it was ignored by the experts and I really doubt they never saw this either so I am baffled as to why as surely they did not want the NW to turn into a powder keg exactly like London had in December?

I am not remotely triumphalist about this. I have relatives on Merseyside and lived and worked there for years and it is heart breaking they are paying such a price for games played to 'reward' them amidst a political bunfight with the regions.

I really hope someone gets their comeuppance over the totally foreseeable tragedy that is unfolding here by them not putting the whole NW in the same tier as some kind of doggie treat for playing nice.

Nobody should be doing that when human lives are at stake as Merseyside and Cheshire are starting to realise and reap the whirlwind given as a Christmas Present they really really should have declined.

The only good thing that can come out of this is dropping the wretched tier system for good as a failed experiment. Yet we are still being told that this is how we will exit lockdown INTO the different tiers.

This needs to be the end to that idea so that those who have paid with illness and their lives have not done so in vain.

Warrington has seen a huge rise in case since it went back to Tier two a few weeks before Xmas. Pubs packed, restaurants packed, shops packed. It’s no surprise

 

[BlueAnorak]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950424/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w1_FINAL.PDF

Some interesting data in this for anyone who is interested in this sort of thing. Over 85’s are clearly the biggest admission group to hospitals but 65-74 for intensive care. I presume that’s because they won’t allocate intensive care beds to over 85’s when demand is so high?

You can rarely put someone over 80 on a ventilator. CPAP oxygen machines for them in the care of the elderly Covid wards.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Germany has now had 3 consecutive days with 1000+ fatalities - 29k new cases today as well. Lots in care homes infected - they're finding it so difficult to keep it out at the moment. I think we can say it's highly probable that the new strain is now rampant there too.

I understand that the UK has the best labs and more capacity at these labs to carry out the tests required to detect the new strain. So perhaps many places in Europe have it and just dont know.

 

[BlueAnorak]

BBC North West news just now discussing the massive explosion of cases on Merseyside and in Cheshire areas like Warrington that as I have been reporting in here has been driving the NW numbers up up and away in past 2/3 weeks.

Local figures on Merseyside have just concluded that over Christmas it was all the fault of people coming there from higher tier areas (wonder who!) that realised they could take advantage of pubs and restaurants being open.

The region is now in massive trouble, with hospitals about to be overrun and the top few locations in Britainfor case numbers being on Merseyside.

If only if only someone had actually worked out that this might happen and it had not come out of the blue like this.

Except.....it was totally obvious and discussed in here many times as we first saw it in July when the Bolton outbreak clobbered the then lowest town in GM by residents going there as they were open to everyone because their cases were low. Wigan has to this day never fully recovered from that and its why I kept pointing this out over and over in here as it was the key reason why the tiers were clearly not going to work as intended. Though not the only reason.

The government knew these facts. Hancock used it pre Christmas when moving all of GM up to the top tier saying you could not separate good and bad boroughs out (citing Trafford and Stockport - now two of the worst!) as they would just spread the virus from bad to good taking advantage of the different restrictions. Especially with the new super spreader strain.

Yet he seems utterly unaware that the North West is like one big region about the size of Greater London and exactly the same thing would happen to anywhere within it that he kept at a lower level.

We saw it coming a mile off in here. It is astounding that it was ignored by the experts and I really doubt they never saw this either so I am baffled as to why as surely they did not want the NW to turn into a powder keg exactly like London had in December?

I am not remotely triumphalist about this. I have relatives on Merseyside and lived and worked there for years and it is heart breaking they are paying such a price for games played to 'reward' them amidst a political bunfight with the regions.

I really hope someone gets their comeuppance over the totally foreseeable tragedy that is unfolding here by them not putting the whole NW in the same tier as some kind of doggie treat for playing nice.

Nobody should be doing that when human lives are at stake as Merseyside and Cheshire are starting to realise and reap the whirlwind given as a Christmas Present they really really should have declined.

The only good thing that can come out of this is dropping the wretched tier system for good as a failed experiment. Yet we are still being told that this is how we will exit lockdown INTO the different tiers.

This needs to be the end to that idea so that those who have paid with illness and their lives have not done so in vain.

Sadly, more than enough people to spread it locally on their own.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Russia

You can rarely put someone over 80 on a ventilator. CPAP oxygen machines for them in the care of the elderly Covid wards.

Yes I thought as much. I guess that is where many of the deaths are happening then too.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

1400 cases in Warrington in last week and 800 in Halton. A few weeks ago it was about 300/100.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I understand that the UK has the best labs and more capacity at these labs to carry out the tests required to detect the new strain. So perhaps many places in Europe have it and just dont know.

It amazes me that only the UK and Denmark in Europe are testing virus strains to the level we are. France, Germany are a huge surprise to me.

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

Things are moving here which is a huge relief as my daughter gets her vaccine tomorrow (NHS) So it is starting to happen it would be great if they did the teachers then I could relax a bit more

 

[BlueAnorak]

New York and Sweden have both been suggested as examples where major mistakes were made. Wave one saw some awful reports from Spain.

And Northern Italy.

 

[red 2 hats]

1400 cases in Warrington in last week and 800 in Halton. A few weeks ago it was about 300/100.

I'm in

1400 cases in Warrington in last week and 800 in Halton. A few weeks ago it was about 300/100.

I'm in Warrington, and the amount of people who I know currently Covid positive or self isolating is frightening.
My nephew and his girlfriend plus a group of mates all went to Liverpool for a night out cos Warrington was shut, and guess what, the selfish cunts are now isolating or positive, other family members now shitting themselves because young ignorant tw#ts couldn't resist a night out.

 

[bluethrunthru]

went to North Tees Hospital today for a colonoscopy and had to attend Tuesday for a Covid test pre admission for todays events. The atmosphere is very tense. On Tuesday it was a swab done outside - there were 3 nurses in more PPE than I have seen on the TV for such a thing and they weren't up for chit chat.
Today was a bit different - well you may as well have a natter whilst its going on. No reports of the new strain up here but big increase in admissions I was told. I was on the Covid secure side of the hospital and all places where you could cross into the Covid side were sealed off or had someone there to ask what business you had making the crossing. No chance of wandering about lost !
On my side it was eerily quiet as the number of people there and where you were going was strictly controlled - talking to the staff doing the colonoscopy there was a quiet resignation that things were only going to get worse.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Russia recently admitted 189k excess deaths in 2020 - so their cases are 3 times higher than reported.

Covid-19: Russia admits to understating deaths by more than two thirds

Russia’s true death toll from the novel coronavirus pandemic is not about 57 000, as official figures claim, but more than 180 000, the country’s deputy prime minister, Tatiana Golikova, conceded at a press conference. Russia’s claims of an extraordinarily low mortality have been widely...

www.bmj.com

The ONS reported 73k for 2020 in the UK

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

The bottom line is that Russia has had 19.8% more excess deaths than we have had per head of population in 2020.
This post comes to you curtesy of Life Events statistics in both countries.

 

[Cityfan]

My daughter works at Trafford General. Apparently several staff members who’ve been vaccinated, who have previously had COVID, have been quite unwell after the jab. Obviously this hasn’t been an issue so far, as most over 80s who are being vaccinated haven’t had COVID. And it maybe just be a strange coincidence. But worth watching.

Seems to be a common phenomenon and probably represents a good immune response to the vaccine.
People I know who have had the vaccine after having Covid say some of the symptoms were similar but shorter lasting, usually a couple of days.

 

[BlueAnorak]

went to North Tees Hospital today for a colonoscopy and had to attend Tuesday for a Covid test pre admission for todays events. The atmosphere is very tense. On Tuesday it was a swab done outside - there were 3 nurses in more PPE than I have seen on the TV for such a thing and they weren't up for chit chat.
Today was a bit different - well you may as well have a natter whilst its going on. No reports of the new strain up here but big increase in admissions I was told. I was on the Covid secure side of the hospital and all places where you could cross into the Covid side were sealed off or had someone there to ask what business you had making the crossing. No chance of wandering about lost !
On my side it was eerily quiet as the number of people there and where you were going was strictly controlled - talking to the staff doing the colonoscopy there was a quiet resignation that things were only going to get worse.

Hope everything went well for you.
Thoughts and prayers for you.

 

[BlueAnorak]

My daughter works at Trafford General. Apparently several staff members who’ve been vaccinated, who have previously had COVID, have been quite unwell after the jab. Obviously this hasn’t been an issue so far, as most over 80s who are being vaccinated haven’t had COVID. And it maybe just be a strange coincidence. But worth watching.

Pfizer jab I assume. Happening here in the Midlands too. The 12 who work on my daughters wards who think they had it as some point over the year felt right poorly the day after with aches and pains and a stinking heading. OK the day after that though.