Political relations between UK-EU

[mcfc1632]

Not this nonsense again.

We didn’t end EU citizens freedom of movement. We ended British citizens * freedom of movement. Pose the question the correct way and you will flip those findings in thirty minutes.

Guaranteed.

* Not applicable in NI

More of your desperation to stop discussion you are uncomfortable with?

Your point has zero to do with the point that I am making to @Ban-jani

To be clear - this is a post from a BM member - another BM member pointing out something that I was surprised about - i.e. that:

"Asked for their views on migration, a majority said that immigrants from elsewhere benefited Britain’s culture and economy. 63 per cent thought migration was a boost to the economy with just 6 per cent saying it was damaging."

and

"However, most supported the abolition of free movement from the EU, which took legal effect on Friday. Asked whether European citizens should have to apply to live in the UK in the same way as non-EU migrants, 73 per cent backed the idea while 17 per cent opposed. By the end of the deliberative sessions even a majority of Remain voters endorsed the change, up to 57 per cent from an initial 41 per cent."

Rather than the deal - I am commenting on the views of UK citizens - both Remain and Leave - and the strength of their views did surprise me

Is there going to be some new entry in the CoCs to confirm that any post on the thread has to be first confirmed by you to be acceptable - or can posters just carry on sharing their views with each other?

 

[mcfc1632]

I’ll reiterate, brexit was always essentially two programmes. Your third paragraph is just wrong, a stipulation before agreeing the WA was that discussions around that future agreement couldn’t take place until the WA was in place. Nothing could be “solutionised” (ffs on that btw...) until post it and we’d had further discussions as you can’t solution anything until you know the requirements from both sides if you’re still in negotiations. We only stipulated what we wanted in Feb 2020 for example in regard to visas.

The WA and what Johnson signed up to, there’s an argument that you can blame May for some
of it. Not for the future agreement though, that’s either being disingenuous or just not understanding it at all.

Programme management and processes wise, you might pull a few in with that, but trust me, I’m not your target audience to try that with.

Let’s just leave it at that though.

No problem mate - I understand that the reality of how programmes work and what would have been different is confusing for those without direct experience

But - you say:

"The WA and what Johnson signed up to, there’s an argument that you can blame May for some
of it. Not for the future agreement though, that’s either being disingenuous or just not understanding it at all."

I have to point out that you are 100% wrong - and this is not even debateable if you understand these matters (no barb in that comment - just a fact) - so no, I am not being at all disingenuous - just correct. IMO - you can hardly comment that you are not an audience, which I assume meant not experienced, for such matters and then criticise someone that is very knowledgeable of them.

But yes - let's leave it there

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

It won’t happen.

Think about it. NI Parliament would have to vote for it - they won’t. UK parliament will have to ratify it - they won’t. The NI public would have to vote for it - they won’t.

I thought it was an Ireland wide vote for a unification referendum ... not just Northern Ireland. Perhaps our Irish friends could clarify?

 

[west didsblue]

I thought it was an Ireland wide vote for a unification referendum ... not just Northern Ireland. Perhaps our Irish friends could clarify?

I’m not Irish but my understanding is that according to the GFA if it becomes clear to the UK SoS for NI there is the likelihood of a clear majority for reunification he must allow a referendum on the matter. There then must be a majority in favour on both sides of the border.

 

[Vic]

Came across this article:

Leave and Remain voters both favour end to free movement, but want to keep EU rules on firms (inews.co.uk)

And it made me think about the discussion of last week on FOM and open borders - and your calm and sensible support for a points based system

I of course agree with your stance - but others seemed to be suggesting that we were in the minority - apparently, as we knew, we are not:

"Voters from across the political spectrum are broadly in favour of immigration but want EU citizens to face tougher restrictions on moving to Britain, according to new research led by Britain’s best-known polling guru."

I thought these comments might suggest that our thinking is in common with the vast majority:

"Asked for their views on migration, a majority said that immigrants from elsewhere benefited Britain’s culture and economy. 63 per cent thought migration was a boost to the economy with just 6 per cent saying it was damaging."

and

"However, most supported the abolition of free movement from the EU, which took legal effect on Friday. Asked whether European citizens should have to apply to live in the UK in the same way as non-EU migrants, 73 per cent backed the idea while 17 per cent opposed. By the end of the deliberative sessions even a majority of Remain voters endorsed the change, up to 57 per cent from an initial 41 per cent."

Pity you didn't extol the value of deliberative polls before or after the referendum. This latest one would have been superfluous as we would still be in the EU once people had "got past the slogans".

UK Needs a Deliberation Day Before Its EU Referendum

Bruce Ackerman and Jim Fishkin argue in the Huffington Post UK for a Deliberation Day in the UK before its referendum on maintaining membership in the European Union. Based on extensive experience with Deliberative Polling by Fishkin at the Stanford...

www.citsov.org

An Ancient Greek idea could foil Brexit’s democratic tragedy | Nicholas Gruen

Given the chance to think on each others’ views, we become more tolerant: a citizens’ assembly is how to fight illiberalism, says chief executive of Lateral Economics Nicholas Gruen

www.theguardian.com

"Between the referendum and the end of two weekends spent deliberating on Brexit, a group exemplifying the referendum’s 52:48 Brexit vote had swung to 40:60 against."

 

[Ban-jani]

Reunification into a 32 county sovereign state, could become all the more attractive to elements of the Catholic unionists as well as a younger Protestant educated electorate, if doing so gave automatic re-entry into the EU, similar to East Germany.

The GFA provides for a referendum should the desire be there both north and south of the border. So don’t say ‘never’.

This is just wishful thinking on your part.

There’s far too much conflict for this to take place any time soon.

I don’t think they’ll ever vote on it to be honest.

 

[west didsblue]

This is just wishful thinking on your part.

There’s far too much conflict for this to take place any time soon.

I don’t think they’ll ever vote on it to be honest.

The second paragraph isn't wishful thing. It's international law.

It's also UK law, as specified in the Northern Ireland Act 1998 that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

 

[Ban-jani]

The second paragraph isn't wishful thing. It's international law.

It's also UK law, as specified in the Northern Ireland Act 1998 that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

Surely that’s incredibly subjective?

It’s actually a poor piece of legislation as it’s based on an opinion, based on opinion polls.

Anyway, I would rather NI stayed in the UK as it’s a great country but given the historical connections, a united Ireland isn’t something I am necessarily against, if that’s what they want, certainly nowhere near to the same degree of being against Scotland going.

I only wish the views in NI could swap with Scotland, as they appear to want to stay more.

 

[west didsblue]

Surely that’s incredibly subjective?

It’s actually a poor piece of legislation as it’s based on an opinion, based on opinion polls.

Anyway, I would rather NI stayed in the UK as it’s a great country but given the historical connections, a united Ireland isn’t something I am necessarily against, if that’s what they want, certainly nowhere near to the same degree of being against Scotland going.

I only wish the views in NI could swap with Scotland, as they appear to want to stay more.

Of course it's subjective, which gives the SoS a certain amount of latitude in making that determination, but if multiple opinion polls over a period of time and the Northern Ireland Assembly were all strongly in favour of it he couldn't ignore it and use other concerns as an excuse for not having a border poll.

 

[Ban-jani]

Of course it's subjective, which gives the SoS a certain amount of latitude in making that determination, but if multiple opinion polls over a period of time and the Northern Ireland Assembly were all strongly in favour of it he couldn't ignore it and use other concerns as an excuse for not having a border poll.

Quite a lot has to change to get to that point and the troubles it would cause isn’t an excuse, the country is very much split on the issue as it stands, with remaining in the UK, still the preference.

I think people are presuming the customs checks are going to make a huge difference, I don’t think they will once the media have stopped talking about Brexit.

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

For me the modern North needs to be convinced by us that they will have a better future with us. (Perhaps through the EU)
Whatever happens it needs to be permanent.

THIS.
Alot (most/all) of the issues up here are very negative...its still a them and us scenario....people dont want change because of "themmuns".

No scare stories, no "project fear"....just the societal (and financial) benefits it could bring

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

I did say we need to convince the unionists. I'd rather go federal with the provinces tbh

Maybe sidetracking the thread...what would that mean/involve?

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

There were claims a few years ago of this happening by now but what the studies show, is that even a Catholic majority doesn’t result in an upward trend for a United Ireland.

In a 2018 poll, 45% said they were Catholic but only 25% said they were solely Irish as their identity and that roughly translates into unification supporters.

So Catholicism might overtake Protestantism in NI, or may have already, but only just, but it’s not going to be enough to move enough into the direction of independence.

Independence in NI is less popular than Scotland was in 2014.

The vote is never going to be held anyway, there’s too much at stake.

I dont think the Catholic/Protestant thing is as indicative anymore...

I'm (supposedly) Protestant....my wife is Catholic....many prods i know are open to some sort of reunification....its not as simple as saying Protestant vote this way and Catholic vote the other anymnore

 

[Ban-jani]

I dont think the Catholic/Protestant thing is as indicative anymore...

I'm (supposedly) Protestant....my wife is Catholic....many prods i know are open to some sort of reunification....its not as simple as saying Protestant vote this way and Catholic vote the other anymnore

That’s kind of the point I was making, kind of.

That Catholicism isn’t now a precursor to being a nationalist over loyalist.

The study I got my figures from was actually making that point.

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

I thought it was an Ireland wide vote for a unification referendum ... not just Northern Ireland. Perhaps our Irish friends could clarify?

If it became evident in NI that here was a desire, it could then be put to referendum.....i believe there would then be a separate one in the Republic too

I can understand and partly agree with @Ban-jani in that there wont be a referendum soon....i think 10 years is wishful thinking, but there will be one...but at the moment the unionists in Stormont have enough to prevent it happening. Im not 100% certain a straight yes/no vote for reunification would produce a yes answer anyway.

And thats where the process needs to be thought out by those in favour. A yes/no scenario will never solve the problems.....its more about integrating and amalgamating....and imo, Brexit can help facilitate it.

Some Unionists will be scared that its the road to a United Ireland....but if we hold on to and develop the supposed benefits that NI now has we could potentially keep everyone happy.....a wee bit more of a United Ireland whilst still remaining within the UK

 

[west didsblue]

THIS.
Alot (most/all) of the issues up here are very negative...its still a them and us scenario....people dont want change because of "themmuns".

No scare stories, no "project fear"....just the societal (and financial) benefits it could bring

Out of interest, given the chance what would you vote for right now?

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

Out of interest, given the chance what would you vote for right now?

There wont (shouldnt) be a Yes/No question to Irish Unification....but if there was, i'd vote yes

 

[stonerblue]

We’ve got a fair and sensible immigration policy, for the first time since my parents were young.

hahahaha, good one.

 

[Ban-jani]

hahahaha, good one.

What’s wrong with it?

 

[meltonblue]

No problem mate - I understand that the reality of how programmes work and what would have been different is confusing for those without direct experience

But - you say:

"The WA and what Johnson signed up to, there’s an argument that you can blame May for some
of it. Not for the future agreement though, that’s either being disingenuous or just not understanding it at all."

I have to point out that you are 100% wrong - and this is not even debateable if you understand these matters (no barb in that comment - just a fact) - so no, I am not being at all disingenuous - just correct. IMO - you can hardly comment that you are not an audience, which I assume meant not experienced, for such matters and then criticise someone that is very knowledgeable of them.

But yes - let's leave it there

I meant I’m not your target audience as I do have more than a little knowledge of it. The mandates for the future relationship were only published by both sides in Feb 2020. You’re clearly very knowledgeable on brexit so you’ll know that for visas, the target in the political declaration was to aim for visa free travel if possible. That was always going to have to be part of the future agreement negotiations though as it’s clearly dependent on other things too, like agreements on services.

Arguing that solutioning comes before mandate and also saying you know a lot about programme management seems a pretty incompatible position to me though.