Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Further to the figure of 0.04% of people in Israel catching Covid after having both doses of the vaccine the hospitalisation rate of the same group is 0.002%. This equates to two people in a thousand. This is incredible efficiency.

www.theguardian.com

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Need to wait for a bigger sample size but very promising
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
and resistance?
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Well the SA variant reduces double Pfizer vaccine effectiveness to 85% from 95%, more so than the Kent variant (which only minimally reduces vaccine effectiveness).
So the SA variant is more likely (just) to survive herd immunity. Though new mutations that bypass vaccine immunity completely are the real ones to worry about.
 
Thank you everyone. Long way to go yet as Covid ravaged my lungs but I'm assured by a couple of consultants that once day 14 is out of the way, you start the recovery and once you start recovery you don’t relapse, it’s just how long it takes to recover the damage - but you will recover.

Fantastic staff at Oldham Royal I must say, albeit not a hospital to rest and recover I don’t think I slept long than 90 minutes in a week. Staff are faultless though, and it never ceases to amaze me how these somewhat normal people can pick out a smile in you, you didn’t realise you had.
 
BlueAnorak said:
The SA variant case that seeded these cases probably arrived many weeks ago. Remember the first Kent variant case was traced back to mid September.
The good news is that the SA strain is unlikely to be more infectious than the Kent variant so is unlikely to take over for now. When we approach herd immunity the SA variant might takeover however as the Kent variant is more vulnerable to the vaccine.
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Which begs the question as to why our border controls are still half arsed at best. I genuinely don't get it, why are we content to allow this to happen without a single hint of any lessons being learned? I can forgive initial mistakes, I can't forgive living the same story over and over again because we can't be arsed trying hard enough.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Further to the figure of 0.04% of people in Israel catching Covid after having both doses of the vaccine the hospitalisation rate of the same group is 0.002%. This equates to two people in a thousand. This is incredible efficiency.

www.theguardian.com

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
It’s 2 in 100,000, total of 16 people in ca 715k in the article
 

11 recent SA variant cases found in England with no travel links​

In the past five to six days, officials in England have identified 11 cases of the South Africa variant with no links to travel, the BBC has been told.
The affected postcodes are:
  • London: W7, N17, CR4
  • West Midlands: WS2
  • South-east England: ME15, GU21
  • East of England: EN10
  • North-west England: PR9
Adults in these areas are being strongly urged to come forward for testing - whether they have symptoms or not.
The government is sending in mobile testing units and will work with local public health teams, including carrying out door-to-door testing. About 80,000 people will be offered tests.
 
Healdplace said:
Its more than that it seems VERY localised, My brother with no issues and only just into the 65 - 70 age bracket got his jab about 8 days after my friend over 20 years older than him and who has been on the official shielding list due to multiple issues since the start of the pandemic.

They live in the same GM borough and only a mile or so apart.

Well as we are doing in this programme it looks more random rather than a carefully planned strategy to reach the most vulnerable first and go in order.

This is why the redistribution of vaccine from the NW to London as of yesterday was worrying me. If I was sure this was being done because it was to equalise the giving out of vaccine to the more vulnerable the above would not already be happening to the obvious extent it is.

Outside the need to offer jabs last minute to younger ones in the right place at the right time to ensure missed appointments do not result in wasting vaccine. Which of course should be happening as it is from reports in here.

I guess this is something never attempted before. There are bound to be a few cock ups. As long as we get it right in the end that's OK.

And we are in a far better place than 90% of the planet so waiting a few weeks when they may be waiting a year is something we should all be grateful for.

The sooner we get this done on the over 50s and vulnerable the sooner we can ship out all those miillions of spare doses we have on order to the rest of the planet in dire need. As we should be making very clear right now is exactly what we will do.
Click to expand...

That's been my view.
I don't see why the disparity is so great - there seems no reason if they are trying to work by band. Lancashire thought it might get all over 50s done by early March if the supply held, which looks totally out of sync with other areas (so I understood a Lancashire Post article).
 
England hospital deaths 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today

489 / 13 NW/ 2.7%

532 / 45 NW / 8.5%

609 / 54 NW / 8.9%

356 / 23 NW / 6.5% Today

As you can see the % is always low on Mondays due to the weekend reporting issue being worse in the NW than all other areas That has been true across the pandemic.

The numbers and the NW percentage will rise but this is a fall in either sense and the fall in the total week to week is the most stark we have been having in the past week in these numbers which have started to trend down.

Here are the last 7 week to week England hospital deaths with NW share in brackets)

Last Monday to Today v 7 days before it

Mon 609 (54) v 532 (45)

Tue 875 (109) v 842 (103)

Wed 973 (138) v 1027 (124)

Thu 907 (121) v 789 (99)

Fri 744 (94) v 993 (94)

Sat 681 (88) v 710 (70)

Sun 563 (82) v 623 (64)

TODAY 356 (23) v 609 (54)
 
We should wait to see how the three big mid week catch up dates impact the numbers but at the moment it is starting to look like a noticeable fall in deaths has begun even earlier than we might have expected.

As we started vaccinating before lockdown by a couple of weeks that is more likely the reason as any reduction in deaths from lockdown might not yet be anticipated to show.

Cautiously good news But too early to call for sure.
 
BlueAnorak said:
The SA variant case that seeded these cases probably arrived many weeks ago. Remember the first Kent variant case was traced back to mid September.
The good news is that the SA strain is unlikely to be more infectious than the Kent variant so is unlikely to take over for now. When we approach herd immunity the SA variant might takeover however as the Kent variant is more vulnerable to the vaccine.
Click to expand...

Could it just be that there were some cases of the SA variant, but they were contained?
This news seemed to be cases which couldn't be linked, and thus would secondary infection from (probably) asymptomatic people?
 
TINY said:
Thank you everyone. Long way to go yet as Covid ravaged my lungs but I'm assured by a couple of consultants that once day 14 is out of the way, you start the recovery and once you start recovery you don’t relapse, it’s just how long it takes to recover the damage - but you will recover.

Fantastic staff at Oldham Royal I must say, albeit not a hospital to rest and recover I don’t think I slept long than 90 minutes in a week. Staff are faultless though, and it never ceases to amaze me how these somewhat normal people can pick out a smile in you, you didn’t realise you had.
Click to expand...
Pep giveth and then he taketh away.

My dad took a small turn this afternoon and his now in here somewhere with me. He’ll be staying in a night for observations.

Bloods seem to be ok, had an X-ray.
 
nw42 said:
I agree with you it's misleading, have previously thought it was being done to cover a possible 2 week delay between the 'offer' and the actual jab, just a time buying exercise to deflect any coming criticism for possibly missing their self imposed deadlines.
You've made me think again now, it's all a smokescreen.
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I first noticed it being used a couple of weeks ago, and thought the change seemed like it meant something more.

I don't know how many carehomes there are, but it must be easy to know how many there are, and how many have been done. Nobody would bat an eyelid at a small number being unavailable to date - I wonder if we'll get the numbers.

It's like when someone doesn't answer yes or no to a straight question - people will want to know why they can't answer.
 
Healdplace said:
We should wait to see how the three big mid week catch up dates impact the numbers but at the moment it is starting to look like a noticeable fall in deaths has begun even earlier than we might have expected.

As we started vaccinating before lockdown by a couple of weeks that is more likely the reason as any reduction in deaths from lockdown might not yet be anticipated to show.

Cautiously good news But too early to call for sure.
Click to expand...

I'm cautious too, but then again the cases dropped quite dramatically, so it isnt implausible that deaths could follow a similar sharp decline given its cases that quite literally give us indicators on future deaths. Hopefully!
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I first noticed it being used a couple of weeks ago, and thought the change seemed like it meant something more.

I don't know how many carehomes there are, but it must be easy to know how many there are, and how many have been done. Nobody would bat an eyelid at a small number being unavailable to date - I wonder if we'll get the numbers.

It's like when someone doesn't answer yes or no to a straight question - people will want to know why they can't answer.
Click to expand...
15,600 residential care homes in England. c390,000 residents.
 
England 356 hospital deaths More detail

Ages (yesterday also included as I did not post those)

Yesterday V Today


20 - 39 (5) 0.9% V TODAY (3) 0.8%

40 - 59 (44) 7.8% V TODAY (33) 9.3%

60 - 79 (208) 36.9% V TODAY (132) 37.1%

80 PLUS (306) 54.4% V TODAY (188) 52.8%


For another comparison the split last Monday was:- 51.1% 41.6 % 6.4% 0.9% in descending age groups

No clear pattern beyond a hint of the deaths in the 40 - 59 category going upwards. And hints of the two older age groups (which at one point were around 31 / 60 %) coming closer together and that 40 - 59 hinting at a rise from a low base point.

These make sense IF they turn out to be a real trend not just blips.

Because the over 80s will be the ones most likely to benefit from vaccination and lockdown and are the nearest to completion of vaccination so should fall the most first.

Whereas the lower the age group the less vaccination or lockdown would impact - vaccinations especially below 60 as few as yet will be getting these. And they today are above 10% of the total (just!) which is very unusual.

So we are seeing hints of the very things you might expect to see if vaccinations are starting to curb death numbers in the ones most at risk and most completed and having been vaccinated for the longest.

Not at all proof as yet but data that is not contradictory to that conclusion.

And if it is real that will become more and more apparent as February unfolds.
 
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