Coronavirus (2021) thread

[MillionMilesAway]

The SA variant case that seeded these cases probably arrived many weeks ago. Remember the first Kent variant case was traced back to mid September.
The good news is that the SA strain is unlikely to be more infectious than the Kent variant so is unlikely to take over for now. When we approach herd immunity the SA variant might takeover however as the Kent variant is more vulnerable to the vaccine.

Could it just be that there were some cases of the SA variant, but they were contained?
This news seemed to be cases which couldn't be linked, and thus would secondary infection from (probably) asymptomatic people?

 

[TINY]

Thank you everyone. Long way to go yet as Covid ravaged my lungs but I'm assured by a couple of consultants that once day 14 is out of the way, you start the recovery and once you start recovery you don’t relapse, it’s just how long it takes to recover the damage - but you will recover.

Fantastic staff at Oldham Royal I must say, albeit not a hospital to rest and recover I don’t think I slept long than 90 minutes in a week. Staff are faultless though, and it never ceases to amaze me how these somewhat normal people can pick out a smile in you, you didn’t realise you had.

Pep giveth and then he taketh away.

My dad took a small turn this afternoon and his now in here somewhere with me. He’ll be staying in a night for observations.

Bloods seem to be ok, had an X-ray.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I agree with you it's misleading, have previously thought it was being done to cover a possible 2 week delay between the 'offer' and the actual jab, just a time buying exercise to deflect any coming criticism for possibly missing their self imposed deadlines.
You've made me think again now, it's all a smokescreen.

I first noticed it being used a couple of weeks ago, and thought the change seemed like it meant something more.

I don't know how many carehomes there are, but it must be easy to know how many there are, and how many have been done. Nobody would bat an eyelid at a small number being unavailable to date - I wonder if we'll get the numbers.

It's like when someone doesn't answer yes or no to a straight question - people will want to know why they can't answer.

 

[Zabaleta5]

That lad with the wine haha, still dribbling down his head in the airport

Didn't he get kicked in the back as well?

 

[twosips]

We should wait to see how the three big mid week catch up dates impact the numbers but at the moment it is starting to look like a noticeable fall in deaths has begun even earlier than we might have expected.

As we started vaccinating before lockdown by a couple of weeks that is more likely the reason as any reduction in deaths from lockdown might not yet be anticipated to show.

Cautiously good news But too early to call for sure.

I'm cautious too, but then again the cases dropped quite dramatically, so it isnt implausible that deaths could follow a similar sharp decline given its cases that quite literally give us indicators on future deaths. Hopefully!

 

[Indaparkside]

Didn't he get kicked in the back as well?

Drop kicked at the stadium, nearly twatted on the plane then the landing topped it off for the poor **** haha

 

[Zabaleta5]

Drop kicked at the stadium, nearly twatted on the plane then the landing topped it off for the poor **** haha

Are you still feeling ok after the jab?

 

[xgorton]

All restrictions on the Isle of Man have been lifted,back to normal after 3 weeks with no new cases

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

I first noticed it being used a couple of weeks ago, and thought the change seemed like it meant something more.

I don't know how many carehomes there are, but it must be easy to know how many there are, and how many have been done. Nobody would bat an eyelid at a small number being unavailable to date - I wonder if we'll get the numbers.

It's like when someone doesn't answer yes or no to a straight question - people will want to know why they can't answer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.carehome.co.uk/news/amp/article/id/1641654/95-per-cent-of-care-homes-have-had-whole-home-vaccination-for-residents-reveals-NCF-poll

15,600 residential care homes in England. c390,000 residents.

 

[Healdplace]

England 356 hospital deaths More detail

Ages (yesterday also included as I did not post those)

Yesterday V Today


20 - 39 (5) 0.9% V TODAY (3) 0.8%

40 - 59 (44) 7.8% V TODAY (33) 9.3%

60 - 79 (208) 36.9% V TODAY (132) 37.1%

80 PLUS (306) 54.4% V TODAY (188) 52.8%


For another comparison the split last Monday was:- 51.1% 41.6 % 6.4% 0.9% in descending age groups

No clear pattern beyond a hint of the deaths in the 40 - 59 category going upwards. And hints of the two older age groups (which at one point were around 31 / 60 %) coming closer together and that 40 - 59 hinting at a rise from a low base point.

These make sense IF they turn out to be a real trend not just blips.

Because the over 80s will be the ones most likely to benefit from vaccination and lockdown and are the nearest to completion of vaccination so should fall the most first.

Whereas the lower the age group the less vaccination or lockdown would impact - vaccinations especially below 60 as few as yet will be getting these. And they today are above 10% of the total (just!) which is very unusual.

So we are seeing hints of the very things you might expect to see if vaccinations are starting to curb death numbers in the ones most at risk and most completed and having been vaccinated for the longest.

Not at all proof as yet but data that is not contradictory to that conclusion.

And if it is real that will become more and more apparent as February unfolds.