Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Marvin said:
JVT's commented in the press conference that it's unlikely that the SA variant will overtake the UK variant in the UK over the next few months but this seems questionable. if the vaccines are 85% effective against the UK variant but marginally effective against the SA variant then we are going to selectively filter out the UK strain and wild-type to leave the SA variant, and similar strains. It depends how effective our vaccine are against the SA variant. I am sure this is being looked at but the information that is in the public domain is contradictory.

I'll take any vaccine I am offered as something is better than nothing but it seems to me that we're in for more than one round of vaccination before we can put this behind us.
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Thought Hancock’s most telling utterance this evening was ‘we’ve turned a corner’, not ‘we’ve turned the corner’ or ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
Think it’s a case of get as many people vaccinated now and then develop a booster that can combat identified variants.
 
worsleyweb said:
I won’t post direct on here but I have just had text my friend from Az and he has just said along the lines of it is all good. Believe nothing you are hearing on the news. Is pathetic. Said the vaccine still work better than flu vaccines and modifications allready under way which was known would need to happen. His final line was the most interesting thing I have heard in 6 months. Will post tommorow


What have I missed?
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EH ? You can’t do that ...
 
Gabriel said:
Thought Hancock’s most telling utterance this evening was ‘we’ve turned a corner’, not ‘we’ve turned the corner’ or ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
Think it’s a case of get as many people vaccinated now and then develop a booster that can combat identified variants.
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Yes and it's fair enough. I would like some clarity on whether there is a differential performance between the different vaccines and the SA variant because different claims are being made for different vaccines.
 
Gabriel said:
Thought Hancock’s most telling utterance this evening was ‘we’ve turned a corner’, not ‘we’ve turned the corner’ or ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
Think it’s a case of get as many people vaccinated now and then develop a booster that can combat identified variants.
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Has to be the right way too. It gets forgotten that we are still under a year of this virus, and we've noticed a relatively small number of significant variants so far - first generation vaccines are not perfect and will be improved over the next years.

From what I heard, I thought Hancock was pretty good to start with - he went on too long to start with, but it started strongly.
 
worsleyweb said:
I won’t post direct on here but I have just had text my friend from Az and he has just said along the lines of it is all good. Believe nothing you are hearing on the news. Is pathetic. Said the vaccine still work better than flu vaccines and modifications allready under way which was known would need to happen. His final line was the most interesting thing I have heard in 6 months. Will post tommorow


What have I missed?
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I will tell you if you tell us your news :)
 
Marvin said:
Yes and it's fair enough. I would like some clarity on whether there is a differential performance between the different vaccines and the SA variant because different claims are being made for different vaccines.
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It would be good to have, I agree.
I think the main issue here is that there have been very limited scope to do so - the SA variant has been around for around 2 months in significant numbers, trials of vaccines take 3 weeks to give immunity, and there just hasn't been time to get the body of data to make a firm judgement - the SA trial that was publicised today was 2,000 people, which is not enough for statistical assessment.
 
kaz7 said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Beta coronavirus variant: What is the risk?

There are fears that this version of coronavirus, first identified in South Africa, is
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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Scientists have tested the Pfizer Covid vaccine against N501Y and E484k mutations in the lab, using blood samples from vaccinated people.
In that study, vaccination appeared to work, but was slightly less effective.
Early results from Moderna suggest its vaccine is still effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response may not be as strong or prolonged.
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N501Y and E484k are the two main variants, SAF and Britain.

The likelihood is that with the majority of the population vaccinated by the summer, and the top ups coming too, hospitalisations and deaths will be very low.

The economy will surely be opened up with social distancing in this case.

The worst case scenario here with mutations is it still spreads but will be similar to a cold to nearly everyone, based on what I’ve read.

The future is still bright and by autumn there will be amended vaccines to stop these mutations.
 

Gaylord du Bois said:
You didn't watch, did you? We're you on the phone to kaz, at the time by any chance?
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I did watch it.
I dont like VT too be honest and I dont like being dictated to by someone I didn't vote for.
I know others who feel the same.
The government is letting the country be dictated too, locked up and ruled by unelected science people. Sorry I dont think its right.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


Some good news on the SA variant to end the night. It seems if you've got antibodies through prior infection, these antibodies have a very strong chance of recognising the SA variant.

Edit - unless I'm missing something (which could well be the case as I've previously said plenty of times my interpretation of this stuff isn't always on point!!), this isn't just good news but actually excellent news. Huge.
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The body may well make high volumes of antibody titres but maybe not across the entire pre-existing spectrum. That is what their paper says. ANd that probably explains the decline in vaccine effectiveness.

Collectively, our results suggest that the observed increase in neutralizing antibody responses post-vaccination is primarily due to an increase in anti-RBD antibodies. The inability of an NTD-directed mAb to neutralize B.1.351 however, suggests anti-NTD neutralizing antibodies generated in response to infection with variants from early in the pandemic, may not be effective against emerging mutant variants.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I'm doing good mate. Smell has returned this week, so that was around 4 weeks without that sense. Been working and getting out and about and feel good. Perhaps some anxiety, I've no idea if that's a direct cause from the virus or an indirect impact on my state of mind tbh. Hard to explain, heart feels like it's racing sometimes. Still to try a run myself but I'm putting that down to sheer lazyness now, I'm out of the habit and finding it difficult to try and start getting back into...i will eventually ha!

Glad you're on the mend mate, all be it the lingering cough etc must be frustrating. Hopefully it eases up, in sure it will in time. The current cold snap won't be helping either I'd think!
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Again remarkably similar symptoms as myself. Walking up the stairs sends my heart racing so clearly running is a no no.
That can wait.
Tired too but new job and you forget how your brain eats energy in learning situations. Glad I’m not working on something like an oil rig though...absolutely no chance.

Few stories of it sitting in your head way after the physical anguish subsides.
Anxiety or something else I don’t know.

This isn’t normal for humans after all so not surprised most of us are losing our heads a bit (or a lot).
Carry on mending mate.
 
Ban-jani said:
N501Y and E484k are the two main variants, SAF and Britain.

The likelihood is that with the majority of the population vaccinated by the summer, and the top ups coming too, hospitalisations and deaths will be very low.

The economy will surely be opened up with social distancing in this case.

The worst case scenario here with mutations is it still spreads but will be similar to a cold to nearly everyone, based on what I’ve read.

The future is still bright and by autumn there will be amended vaccines to stop these mutations.
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The worst-case scenario is total vaccine evasion. Unlikely. It's a grey area. It's not clear at all just how effective our vaccine arsenal is. Different studies and trials make different claims.

Today's briefing objective was just to assert that you should keep taking the vaccine. And we should. Unfortunately what looked like crystal clear water has now been muddied. Some people blame bad news on the media and misinformation but the South African state has a vested interest in discerning fact from fiction so I'd watch what they do.
 
Marvin said:
The worst-case scenario is total vaccine evasion. Unlikely. It's a grey area. It's not clear at all just how effective our vaccine arsenal is. Different studies and trials make different claims.
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32 mins in.
The Andrew Marr Show, 07/02/2021: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000s5lx via @bbciplayer
Total vaccine evasion? How does that happen? Wouldn't it have to completely bypass the spike protein? Thus rendering it a completely different virus?
 
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BLUEMATT23 said:
Have to say very disappointed in today's press briefing. Van Tam painting a depressing picture.
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What was depressing about it, the man is a realist, and he was saying the media were going ott with scare stories, and he was happy with the current situation regarding variants, so just get it done.

No idea how you could think he was negative ?
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
32 mins in.
The Andrew Marr Show, 07/02/2021: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000s5lx via @bbciplayer
Total vaccine evasion? How does that happen? Wouldn't it have to completely bypass the spike protein? Thus rendering it a completely different virus?
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It can still change structurally so that some antibodies can no longer bind to it and this has already happened.

There are two aspects to immunity: antibodies and T cells which destroy infected cells. I think Sarah Gilbert must have been referring to the T cell response.

We might be able to get round this problem if we use one of China's inactivated virus-based vaccines. I am sure they have been approved now and in theory they should not be so seriously affected by changes to the spike protein.

Someone should ask Hancock or Johnson about this. We also have an odd situation where similar vaccines that all target the same spike protein claim different levels of effectiveness. I can't see why that would happen but seemingly it is the case.
 
cleavers said:
What was depressing about it, the man is a realist, and he was saying the media were going ott with scare stories, and he was happy with the current situation regarding variants, so just get it done.

No idea how you could think he was negative ?
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Happy? His attitude was that we should be 'concerned'. We've gone from aimimg for herd immunity to medicine. That's not good.
 
Marvin said:
It can still change structurally so that some antibodies can no longer bind to it and this has already happened.

There are two aspects to immunity: antibodies and T cells which destroy infected cells. I think Sarah Gilbert must have been referring to the T cell response.

We might be able to get round this problem if we use one of China's inactivated virus-based vaccines. I am sure they have been approved now and in theory they should not be so seriously affected by changes to the spike protein.

Someone should ask Hancock or Johnson about this. We also have an odd situation where similar vaccines that all target the same spike protein claim different levels of effectiveness. I can't see why that would happen but seemingly it is the case.
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why the fuck anyone would accept China's help with this is beyond me.
 
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