Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
worsleyweb said:
I will get stick no doubt but this is clear and detailed. People wanted a road map and this is clear - will go over in detail later but cheered me up this.
Click to expand...
I agree. I'm not (selfishly or not) happy about it but it's clear.

At least my lad can get back to barbering in central Manchester on 12 April; wonder if any of the pubs in town will bother opening up then.
 
meltonblue said:
Yes. I wouldn’t worry about it yet though as there’s not enough of a data set to really prove the numbers they’re saying.

Worth waiting another couple of months yet.
Click to expand...

Thank you.

Maybe I'm not thinking straight, but it seems bizarre then that this sort of information is released and then there's government statements with dates for ending all of this, I'd have thought we're better waiting to know that things are ok on the vaccine front first.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Sorry, is that the efficacy which drops off after 4 weeks with Pfizer? I struggle to get my head around some of the information, apologies. If so, what's it dropping to and won't this have a massive detrimental effect on delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks?
Click to expand...

The data table appears to show efficacy drop for Pfizer post week 4. Note that there is no data for AZ post week four.

*But* numbers are very small, and I've seen a comment (can't locate it, sorry) that it was some artefact of the analysis.

I'd say not an immediate concern, but one to watch.

Full report


Excerpt of the Pfizer data by week - the 38% is week one, 64% is week 6. Note the huge confidence intervals.

1614012384104.png
 
I hope this goes as planned as I just know the population will not accept a further lock down. This is for all the chips so get people vaccinated and lets hope this is the beginning of the end of this nightmare.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Thank you.

Maybe I'm not thinking straight, but it seems bizarre then that this sort of information is released and then there's government statements with dates for ending all of this, I'd have thought we're better waiting to know that things are ok on the vaccine front first.
Click to expand...

I’d detach the two, the government will be using different data to justify the position they’re taking.

In an ideal world, we’d have kept to the original three weeks between doses. Due to the situation we were in though, they went with the delay and the potential loss of efficacy in that timeframe will be baked into their numbers.

The great thing is even with that drop, it still has a really good rate.

Edit: just to add, that’s also why comparing vaccine rollout numbers like for like isn’t really a comparable at the mo
 
ZenHalfTimeCrock said:
So pupils back in schools on the 8th.

But am I right in thinking that each one will be tested at least twice on their return?

If so, in a larger comp of, say, 1000, that might entail something like 400 tests a day... can schools manage that?

And what you do with the presumably long queues of kids waiting for the test who might be infectious ?

Or if the tests are performed at home, how will schools know that the parents did their bit? Would a scan of a test result showing the number be sufficient?

And what reassurances can be given to unvaccinated staff who may possibly be at risk of long COVID or something worse?

Not having a go here. Just wondering whether anyone has thought about these potential logistical difficulties?
Click to expand...
I have considered them.
It’s an unworkable fudge.
It will mean a staggered return from March 8th.
It is completely reliant on parents honestly and competently a£ministering home tests.
Staff are being given no reassurances.
 
KennyG said:
Not staggering the return of schools is a massive mistake. One that will stop the following steps actually becoming a reality. We need positive news, but it has to be realistic. This is on a par with the ‘5 days of Xmas’ and we know how that played out.
Click to expand...
Secondary schools can stagger return in the first week at their discretion.
They will have to.
 
Last edited:
roubaixtuesday said:
The data table appears to show efficacy drop for Pfizer post week 4. Note that there is no data for AZ post week four.

*But* numbers are very small, and I've seen a comment (can't locate it, sorry) that it was some artefact of the analysis.

I'd say not an immediate concern, but one to watch.

Full report


Excerpt of the Pfizer data by week - the 38% is week one, 64% is week 6. Note the huge confidence intervals.

View attachment 11122
Click to expand...

Thank you. Yeah - that's certainly worth watching. If that's the sort of reduction by week 6, you can't imagine another 6 weeks will do much good. Potentially massive detriment to those who've received 1st dose of Pfizer and the JCVI decision to run with the delayed dose. I'll heed the advice of you and MB for now and not become too concerned, but processing this sort of info and not being concerned is probably what separates those with some sort of scientific knowledge and the layman like myself!
 
denislawsbackheel said:
I have considered them.
It’s an unworkable fudge.
It will mean a staggered return from March 8th.
It is completely reliant on parents honestly and competently a£ministering home tests.
Staff are being given no reassurances.
Click to expand...

That’s what I suspected. Really glad that I walked away from teaching just before all this started.

It will also be interesting to see what those who are plugged into the actual science (Chris Whitty? Devi Sridhar?) as opposed to the politics have to say about the school return aspect.

Maybe they will be reassuring. Or maybe not.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Thank you. Yeah - that's certainly worth watching. If that's the sort of reduction by week 6, you can't imagine another 6 weeks will do much good. Potentially massive detriment to those who've received 1st dose of Pfizer and the JCVI decision to run with the delayed dose. I'll heed the advice of you and MB for now and not become too concerned, but processing this sort of info and not being concerned is probably what separates those with some sort of scientific knowledge and the layman like myself!
Click to expand...

In general, I would caution over-reacting to one piece of data.

Even if they turn out to be confirmed once we have more data at those midpoints, the JCVI decision was still arguably right and will save many lives as an awful lot of people right now are protected to a large degree who would otherwise not be protected at all.

And there's the opposite data on the AZ vaccine that the second dose is more effective if given later; that could yet apply to Pfizer too.

Plus second doses will be starting in earnest in a couple of weeks time (3 months from first vaccination is 8th March).

Far too early to form conclusions IMO, and the worst case scenario isn't too bad compared to where the rest of the world are at.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top