I must admit, I did expect to see less 80+ dying from this by now. Too early still?
It has not been over 50% for two weeks now and that is certainly not usual
Numbers have fallen so fast also that this means far less over 60s have not died as they are the bulk of the numbers every day. So 90% of the reduction every day IS of over 60s. As in today nearly 200 fewer over 60s died than reported last Wednesday.
It is hard to know what impact on % to expect when numbers are dropping fast and getting this low.
Plus testing positive to death is usually at least a month and given the dates of deaths being reported may even be longer as there have been plenty back dated weeks.
Really it was only a month or so ago we really started vaccinating in big numbers and there is a 2 - 3 week lag to immunity.
All told we are in the early days of the vaccine effect and the deaths are dropping faster than I think anyone expected.
Will we see a significant change in the % numbers ever? I am not entirely sure.
Susceptibility will still be with the older ages regardless of how well the vaccines work because they are more likely to have other problems that even a milder covid attack moderated by the vaccine might still trigger.
I doubt we will ever see 30% over 80s 20% over 60s and 50% under 60.
And if we do by then numbers will be so low we will be talking tiny numbers.
I am not a maths whiz or statistician so hopefully someone who is can comment. I freely admit I am just guessing here with no surety there should or should not be an obvious change in percentages.
Perhaps the drop from 58% to 48% we have seen is all we will get.
