Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
BlueAnorak said:
Sadly its wrong. 1st vaccinations will drop off quite a lot over the next 2 weeks as 2nd vaccines become the dominant numbers.
Click to expand...
There’s no reason it won’t ramp up again when Pfizer comes back on line, Moderna comes available then the Johnson. No shortage of volunteers and vaccs centres. We peaked at about 600,000 a day a couple of weeks ago. Would expect to to well beyond that in coming weeks.A 1 million day or two at some point wouldn’t surprise me
If we do go for the single shot Johnson for under 30s / 40s end of June for all adults think at least end of June is very doable.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Sadly its wrong. 1st vaccinations will drop off quite a lot over the next 2 weeks as 2nd vaccines become the dominant numbers.
Click to expand...

I don't think so for several reasons.

Firstly, large numbers of required second shots don't kick in until the end of March/April. In early January the numbers of first shots started rising as AZ came on stream but we weren't doing almost three million a week then or anything like that.

Hancock said again on Friday that March will be a 'bumper month' so expect daily numbers to reach new records.

Thirdly, we will be in a better supply situation soon as to date we haven't received any supply from Moderna plus the Johnson & Johnson single shot vaccine will be approved by the MHRA in the coming two to three weeks.

The thing with where we are now is not to look at past numbers but the direction of travel.
 
xgorton said:
It's your body mate you do what you wish,so will I ok.
Click to expand...
That's the spirit. You just put your feet up and wait while the rest of us to the heavy lifting for you. Thank fuck the vast majority of us are concentrating on through this asap otherwise we'd be getting nowhere fast.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Nice to read more articles this morning about the Germans and French backtracking over the AZ and now expected to approve for over 65’s, lol. Couldn’t make it up.
Click to expand...
He who hesitates is lost according to the proverb. Those who hesitate in a pandemic will get the boot.

You just do not play politics in an international crisis - although I know why they hesitated over the trial results which when we saw enough in them to take that risk they would be better on full results.

But sometimes needs must and it was a bad decision to wait and see. Viruses like this do not play for time.

Could have gone the other way, of course. But it was never going to be dangerous just less effective than hoped and nothing else was there instead in numbers that mattered. So what was there to lose?
 
Last edited:
My thinking regarding when we will have more or less finished vaccinating the eligible adult population is based on these factors.

There are around 53 million adults who would need to be vaccinated but as we have seen not all will want it. If we reach a take up of 80% then that will be at the higher end of forecasts (that was 75%). This takes the actual number down to around 42-43 million. Currently 20 milion have had at least one dose.

March will see an increased rate of doses being administered so I'm reckoning that by the end of the month the figure will be 35 million (possibly more). By the start of April the number of required second doses will increase rapidly but to counter that supply should have increased by then as Pfizer increases production and Moderna comes on stream. By this time the Johnson & Johnson single shot vaccine will have been approved. Clearly we won't receive it in bulk immediately but I expect that this will be the main one for the under 30s towards the end of Spring.

My prediction is still that by mid June latest more or less the entire population will be fully done. I may be being slightly optimistic but I don't think I will be too far out. Well before everyone is fully 'done' we should be in a position to return to more or less normal.
 
I think there is a big clue in the date of when they expect more or less full normality to return in the roadmap - late June.

It is pretty obvious that is when they expect we have a good shot of reaching herd immunity via the vaccinations.

Assuming nothing goes wrong in the meantime as in these uncertain times it always could. But hopefully will not. Heading into Summer not out of it will definitely help. A price those being much slower with vaccinating in the northern hemisphere will unfortunately have to pay.
 
Interestingly, the Telegraph has an article up detailing that Germany is about to approve AZ for over 65s and also they are considering extending the period between first and second doses to 60 or 90 days for all vaccines.

Essentially they are looking to follow the UK model.
 
xgorton said:
Like I said before on this forum when the Johnson & Johnson comes along I will take it.
Click to expand...
Even if its data is worse than the rest? No idea yet how good it will protect you but surely this decision should be based on that not how many jabs are needed?

I know some do not like needles but this is likely to be at least annual for the next few years and future ones will be single dose almost certainly. So it is one extra dose out of several in the longer term for quicker protection.

I am sure you have a good reason though. It is a big decision.
 
Healdplace said:
Even if its data is worse than the rest? No idea yet how good it will protect you but surely this decision should be based on that not how many jabs are needed?
Click to expand...

Irrelevant anyway as he/she/neither won't be getting a choice. Maybe if it gets to the point where certain younger age groups all get Johnson & Johnson but that still won't be a 'choice'.
 
Wales data:

24 deaths - was 16 last week. Possibly an end of month catch up like we have seen in England?

247 cases - was 336 last week

2.4% positivity - was 3.0% last week.

Weekly Pop score 67 - down from 72 yesterday and 82 last week
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top