Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Wrong, they presented viable scenarios to the public on the eve of the November lockdown where daily deaths hit 2,000 - 4,000.

Actually I was correct, you're referencing a different piece of work.

But what's your point? They presented scenarios with a huge surge in deaths and we got one.

They're now saying a sudden opening up brings a likelihood of another surge.

By all means provide a link to the modelling if you want to discuss the details.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes, and now the point at which there is a material risk of the NHS being overwhelmed has long since passed due to the success of the vaccination programme.

It depends what you mean by overwhelmed. There is a material risk of another wave of similar size to the last one if we just own everything now.

 

[Bluewonder]

Actually I was correct, you're referencing a different piece of work.

But what's your point? They presented scenarios with a huge surge in deaths and we got one.

They're now saying a sudden opening up brings a likelihood of another surge.

By all means provide a link to the modelling if you want to discuss the details.

The deaths scenario they presented was completely out of step with what had happened in October and transpired in November.

There is a highly credible argument that the December surge was created by the November circuit-breaker, which condensed a month of activity into a few days as everyone wanted to shop, drink and eat at once, after a month of being in lockdown.

 

[Bluewonder]

It depends what you mean by overwhelmed. There is a material risk of another wave of similar size to the last one if we just own everything now.

There isn't, as the most vulnerable 23m people have received vaccinations that have been proven to be highly efficacious.
The last wave occurred when very few, if any, had been vaccinated.

I certainly do not think everything should just open immediately, though I would like to see certain aspects of the road map brought forward, and staggered on a weekly basis to prevent a total surge of people in town/City centres.

For instance, I see very little benefit in keeping gyms shut and outdoor sports banned, and I do not see why shops and hairdressers can now not open with social distancing requirements.

 

[Healdplace]

5766 cases

231 all settings deaths

over 1.5 million tests !!!

 

[blue for life]

I know we still have to be vigilant but it’s good to see this thread dropping down the list whereas it was nearly always top.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

It's not too slow unless you want cases to massively increase, schools etc to close down etc. As a country we have to be sensible about how we open up as we know the country is full of idiots who ignore what they should be doing. Look at Rangers at the weekend. Vaccinations will be a passport to freedom but people have to have both jabs not just one. April will be carnage as it is with the pubs reopening. i for one won't be rushing back to a pub.

Me neither but maybe the time has to come for them to get on with it to a certain extent

 

[Healdplace]

Not going to be any point working out a positivity rating with all these tests involving schools which are why numbers have sky rocketed. They will make comparisons meaningless.

The age of the case number is over now I think. Hospitalisations, ventilators and deaths are the only measures that count really.

Cases are only useful for flagging up sudden local outbreaks that will need containing.

 

[give it to gordon]

Just been to pick the missus up from work on this lovely sunny warm day. Roads a rammed I forgot how many kids are driven to school.
Lots of groups of kids in groups walking around.
Large group of kids about 40 walking to the train station pushing and shoving each other, no social distancing.

I know what happened last time this happened I hope it doesnt happen again.

 

[Healdplace]

Not a good day for the NW or Greater Manchester sadly.

Region up 188 to 877 and the bulk of that rise - 124 - was in Greater Manchester.

GM was even up wk to wk versus last Monday 400 v 449 today.

So big % rise to 51.2 % - highest GM rating in 2021.

Everyone under 100 but only Bolton, Bury and Wigan had fewer cases today than 7 days ago.

Stockport and Rochdale matched their scores last Tuesday.

The other 5 boroughs were up week to week so will have Pop Score rises today.

Bury at 20 was the lowest - Manchester up the most week to week at top score of 90.

Trafford has its highest number (38) in 2 or 3 weeks. Double where it was last week.

Hopefully all this just a blip and schools related.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

There isn't, as the most vulnerable 23m people have received vaccinations that have been proven to be highly efficacious

This isn't entirely true. There are more than enough unvaccinated people (~2/3 of the population) to sustain R>>1 without restrictions. If that is allowed unmitigated, almost the entire population will catch the virus.

There are more than enough vulnerable people either unvaccinated or unprotected (vaccines are not 100% effective, the more so after one dose) to sustain death rates up at the level of the last wave.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I certainly do not think everything should just open immediately, though I would like to see certain aspects of the road map brought forward, and staggered on a weekly basis to prevent a total surge of people in town/City centres.

For instance, I see very little benefit in keeping gyms shut and outdoor sports banned, and I do not see why shops and hairdressers can now not open with social distancing requirements.

But this is a different point - here you're basically agreeing with the policy of opening up slowly and carefully, but want it a bit faster.

These details are difficult to be specific about, but for sure gyms must be high risk with an indoor environment and all the mechanisms for aerosol generation you could wish for.

Prioritising schools and giving it three weeks before opening anything else makes sense to me. In general, I think more outdoor things should be allowed sooner, but TBH I'm not going to quibble with a govt that for the very first time in this whole disaster has the overall strategy right.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

There is a highly credible argument that the December surge was created by the November circuit-breaker, which condensed a month of activity into a few days as everyone wanted to shop, drink and eat at once, after a month of being in lockdown

Who finds this credible?

 

[Manc in London]

Wrong, they presented viable scenarios to the public on the eve of the November lockdown where daily deaths hit 2,000 - 4,000.

Did they say not state that would be the case without more restrictions?

Considering we had well over 1000 deaths with tighter restrictions being in place, do you think that their prediction was way off?

 

[cleavers]

I really do wish Whitty and Vallance would be a bit more upbeat and positive. They are only doing their job but Christ it's as if them and SAGE dont want this to end.

Surely now that 23 million have been jabbed they should start being more positive and confident?
I dont get it, the vaccinations were meant to be the passports to freedom. The unlock is far too slow, crazy that we have to wait another 3 months.

Whilst first dose rollout is very good, only 1.2 million have been fully vaccinated so far, that is less than 3% of our total population, I'm not far off 60, and I still haven't had my first dose, so there is still a very long way to go to vaccinate the majority.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Did they say not state that would be the case without more restrictions?

Considering we had well over 1000 deaths with tighter restrictions being in place, do you think that their prediction was way off?

Yeah, this argument is repeated ad nauseum.

An analogy:

"There's a tsunami coming - evacuate to high ground or thousands will die!"

[we evacuate. nobody dies]

"Why were you scaremongering?? Nobody died!"

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Not going to be any point working out a positivity rating with all these tests involving schools which are why numbers have sky rocketed. They will make comparisons meaningless.

The age of the case number is over now I think. Hospitalisations, ventilators and deaths are the only measures that count really.

Cases are only useful for flagging up sudden local outbreaks that will need containing.

Yes, though those are all much more lagging measures unfortunately.

 

[Bluewonder]

Yeah, this argument is repeated ad nauseum.

An analogy:

"There's a tsunami coming - evacuate to high ground or thousands will die!"

[we evacuate. nobody dies]

"Why were you scaremongering?? Nobody died!"

Except it isn't, as they forecast these numbers to be reached at the end of November/beginning of December, a point at which the effect of the November 'circuit breaker' on death numbers wouldn't yet be seen, as it is 3-4 weeks from infection to death, on average. It was actually around 400 at that point, so they were out by a magnitude of 10.

 

[Bluewonder]

Who finds this credible?

SAGE themselves in March 2020 said suppressing the virus too harshly would cause a surge. That's exactly what happened.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Israel is interesting for the "let's just open up" brigade.

I don't know exactly what restrictions they have in place, but their cases are ~4x ours and static for a while.

Their death rate is only just below ours, and not currently falling.

Despite the fact they've administered about three times the number of vaccines we have.



Cautious seems appropriate.