Rascal
El Presidente
It was Cameron who overestimated the threat of UKIP and that's why he called a referendum.I think both of these post while not unfair overestimate the threat of UKIP.
Farage and UKIP were not a legitimate threat to the tory power base. The first past the post system and historical structures virtually ensure a Labour Conservative government and opposition. In our electoral system the best you can hope for is to be kingmaker..... and then be blamed for all the countries failings. Step forward Lib Dems.
The performance of UKIP bears this out, despite the oceans of coverage they never made a dent in the commons. Their most effective communicator couldn't win the South Thanet seat or the seat of Bercow before that. UKIP was a one man band but even Galloway or Caroline Lucas was more electorally successful with far less coverage. Farage even tried to resign after that. The party was a land of broken toys with candidates that regularly embarrassed themselves on the national stage.
If Farage had of been a right wing Tory, fair enough he could have caused carnage for Cameron or any Conservative leader. The referendum in my opinion recharged him, the failure to take on and refute his arguments was a huge failing of the Conservative party.
Cameron was worried that small % swings to UKIP in Tory marginals would mean Tory voters switching to UKIP and leaving the door open for the challenger party whether that be Labour or Lib Dem. UKIP were not a threat electorally but were a distinct threat in marginals.