The Scottish Politics thread

[Saddleworth2]

I'm not arguing about the forthcoming election result - Scotland is already effectively a one party state, you are describing the difference between a 4-0 and a 6-0 score in football terms.

Only one party supports independence.

 

[Coatigan]

Once again you misread the situation. It was a resounding victory. It exposed the lengths and depths of misinformation and bias that is thrown against us. It failed. They failed. We were always going to be the majority, this shambolic failed coup I hope will increase that victory. Every single age group apart from the old, are in favour of Indy. Our 16 -24 group, the future of our country has over 70% in favour. I won't be counting any chickens, but I am confident the Tories and Labour will pay a price. I hope it's massive. I think it will be and in six weeks I will return to this with you to see who called it.

While you can see it for what it was, and there will be others too, there will also be plenty who won't. Some of it will have stuck. And some of the claims that the Tories are in a stronger position than they perhaps are will again draw some of the lib-dem or lab. voters towards them. I wouldn't bank on anything as dramatic as you maybe expect, in terms of backlash and results. Damage has been done, nowhere near what they maybe hoped for, but better than nothing as far as they are concerned.

I still expect the Tories to be the second largest party, with around if not more than 25% share. And i don't the snp, if they get a majority, will have as big a margin as you expect.

That's just my own opinion.

 

[Magicpole]

Labour will pay the price. Scottish Independence will give the Tories 30 years of unopposed rule.

Well that's what happens when you suck up the anti left propaganda. The Tories are miles ahead in England. That to me is a damning indictment of how easily it is to get working class people to vote against their interests. If we achieve Indy 30 years will seem like a weekend. I do feel sorry for my fellow working class people being fucked over, who hate the Tories as much as I do, but we can't be condemned to a fate England choose.. They need to sort themselves out and as a first step stop being so easily conned by utter lying bastards. They have made their bed, we have chosen one that suits us, not one they have been told by the Tories suits them. It's their bed, and the sooner English people realise that the better.

 

[Magicpole]

While you can see it for what it was, and there will be others too, there will also be plenty who won't. Some of it will have stuck. And some of the claims that the Tories are in a stronger position than they perhaps are will again draw some of the lib-dem or lab. voters towards them. I wouldn't bank on anything as dramatic as you maybe expect, in terms of backlash and results. Damage has been done, nowhere near what they maybe hoped for, but better than nothing as far as they are concerned.

I still expect the Tories to be the second largest party, with around if not more than 25% share. And i don't the snp, if they get a majority, will have as big a margin as you expect.

That's just my own opinion.

I don't agree but we will need to wait and see. The Tories will be second, not because people like them, but because of those who used to vote for Labour don't want Indy and want the Fleg and the Queen before a better future. The Tories have been shown up for what they are, cunts. The votes they get will be to prevent Indy, they offer nothing else. They are in course before this latest shambles to lose 6 seats. I expect thst number to increase. How much is hard to tell, but it will happen.

 

[Coatigan]

I'm not saying anyone is forcing anyone to do anything. Nobody was voting for any other party in significant numbers anyway (why I said one party state), so an increase in the SNP majority is of no real significance is all I'm saying.

I get the point younare making. If the 'one party state' were to be applicable, it would only be so in the sense that alternatives are just so bleak and pointless.

Believe it or not, it isn't as binary as independence and that's all that it is based on.

There are voters who want independence, but don't vote for SNP. They take their chances on voting for parties they align with (huge chubks of islands and highlands where the libdems remain strong for example) expecting the rest to get enough to push the independence cause.

Likewise, there are people not up for independence, who vote for the SNP, because of what they have shown over the last decade in power, and may take their on independence either in another referendum or more open mindedly.

Not huge numbers, granted, but margins that matter. Otherwise the results wouldn't ever really change, and that is why both sides target a wider range.

 

[Coatigan]

Only one party supports independence.

2 parties.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I get the point younare making. If the 'one party state' were to be applicable, it would only be so in the sense that alternatives are just so bleak and pointless.

Believe it or not, it isn't as binary as independence and that's all that it is based on.

There are voters who want independence, but don't vote for SNP. They take their chances on voting for parties they align with (huge chubks of islands and highlands where the libdems remain strong for example)

Likewise, there are people not up for independence, who vote for the SNP, because of what they have shown over the last decade in power, and may take their on independence either in another referendum or more open mindedly.

Not huge numbers, granted, but margins that matter. Otherwise the results wouldn't ever really change, and that is why both sides target a wider range.

Absolutely, maybe the use of the term 'one party state' wasn't clever as it's rather loaded. All I meant was the SNP were in an unassailable position before, and they still are - so no significant change as I see it. The reason for this as you say is very much the shambolic state of the Tories and labour, again not the 'fault' of the SNP. As far as I can see the only remaining tory support are likely to be the Catholic burning rangers type. They will still cote tory whatever.

 

[Magicpole]

I'm not saying anyone is forcing anyone to do anything. Nobody was voting for any other party in significant numbers anyway (why I said one party state), so an increase in the SNP majority is of no real significance is all I'm saying.

Again no. An increased majority shows Johnson is talking shite about whether we want another referendum. If we do increase the majority that Spitfure bursts into flames. It is absolutely significant. To deny that is ludicrous. After all this campaign we see Sturgeon increasing need support then Bawbag will be shown again to not having a clue and all his wishful thinking that we are being forced into another Ref is lies. We will have voted for it it will be part if our manifesto. Vote for us we will have a referendum. If we do, and increase the majority, he can stick his delusions up his sweaty posh boy arse.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Again no. An increased majority shows Johnson is talking shite about whether we want another referendum. If we do increase the majority that Spitfure bursts into flames. It is absolutely significant. To deny that is ludicrous. After all this campaign we see Sturgeon increasing need support then Bawbag will be shown again to not having a clue and all his wishful thinking that we are being forced into another Ref is lies. We will have voted for it it will be part if our manifesto. Vote for us we will have a referendum. If we do, and increase the majority, he can stick his delusions up his sweaty posh boy arse.

Did he say you were being forced into another referendum? I thought he was just saying it had already happened so there was no need for another within a generation of the last?

 

[Coatigan]

Did he say you were being forced into another referendum? I thought he was just saying it had already happened so there was no need for another within a generation of the last?

He did say, the Scots don't want another referendum.

Not that it in itself is of any particular significance, because he wouldn't have been granting one anyway.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

He did say, the Scots don't want another referendum.

Not that it in itself is of any particular significance, because he wouldn't have been granting one anyway.

Quite, I expect he'll try to use all the well rehearsed anti-brexit arguments from south of the border to prevent it while his media mates continue the hatchet job on the SNP. I suppose if the SNP have it as a core manifesto pledge then they can just bulldoze it through in the next Parliament?

 

[bluethrunthru]

Again no. An increased majority shows Johnson is talking shite about whether we want another referendum. If we do increase the majority that Spitfure bursts into flames. It is absolutely significant. To deny that is ludicrous. After all this campaign we see Sturgeon increasing need support then Bawbag will be shown again to not having a clue and all his wishful thinking that we are being forced into another Ref is lies. We will have voted for it it will be part if our manifesto. Vote for us we will have a referendum. If we do, and increase the majority, he can stick his delusions up his sweaty posh boy arse.

What made me laugh today was that Ian Blackford avoided reference to Indy Refs - that shot Johnsons fox so he went down the line he had planned anyway by saying the SNP are obsessed with a referendum and never stop bringing it up and he proved his point by he himself shoehorning reference to a referendum into the answer he was giving with the sole purpose of rubbishing the SNP. Its a one trick device that has been over used and now - aided by some woeful Scottish Tories - will cost him dear I am sure.

 

[Coatigan]

Quite, I expect he'll try to use all the well rehearsed anti-brexit arguments from south of the border to prevent it while his media mates continue the hatchet job on the SNP. I suppose if the SNP have it as a core manifesto pledge then they can just bulldoze it through in the next Parliament?

Well in fairness, they had it in the manifesto in 2016. They also passed it through parliament, so they Could have pushed on it, and played it more.

They didn't, in large part because it suited them. Boris saying no only further pushes buttons, besides, polls showed increasing but not decisive differences. But mostly, it meant they could push it till after the Holyrood election and get another term and Then pursue it.

 

[Saddleworth2]

2 parties.

That’s true. The Greens. How could I forget.

 

[Coatigan]

That’s true. The Greens. How could I forget.

They do have a decent share, and currently are the deciding party.

2 parties out of 5 in parliament.

With lib-dems and labour both toying with thr idea of being 'neutral'

 

[Saddleworth2]

They do have a decent share, and currently are the deciding party.

Yeah, I know. I shouldn’t be so disparaging.

 

[Coatigan]

Quite, I expect he'll try to use all the well rehearsed anti-brexit arguments from south of the border to prevent it while his media mates continue the hatchet job on the SNP. I suppose if the SNP have it as a core manifesto pledge then they can just bulldoze it through in the next Parliament?

They are going over and above a manifesto pledge btw. They have applied to actually have it on the ballot, from what i've read.

I think it will backfire bigtime. Reinforces the narrative that it is all they care for, and might put a few off. Time will tell.


Another big big wildcard in this is the change to the voting eligibility. A whole untested unknown group of voters who could have a sway.

 

[Magicpole]

What made me laugh today was that Ian Blackford avoided reference to Indy Refs - that shot Johnsons fox so he went down the line he had planned anyway by saying the SNP are obsessed with a referendum and never stop bringing it up and he proved his point by he himself shoehorning reference to a referendum into the answer he was giving with the sole purpose of rubbishing the SNP. Its a one trick device that has been over used and now - aided by some woeful Scottish Tories - will cost him dear I am sure.

I watched that too. His balls must have jumped up into his fat gut, as his branch office brought a paper hammer to a pitched battle in their coup attempt. He sounded rattled and desperate, as he should be. He gave Ruth the Mooth a peerage and in the horrible bastards last day helped the cause of Indy, and holed their own and Labour's ship. Blackford knew to avoid it, he played a blinder and forced the stuttering blustering **** to bring it up himself. Twice. 14 points ahead in the polls down there though. It seems recognising the King has no clothes is something thst hasn't happened enough in England. Good luck with that.

 

[Magicpole]

They are going over and above a manifesto pledge btw. They have applied to actually have it on the ballot, from what i've read.

I think it will backfire bigtime. Reinforces the narrative that it is all they care for, and might put a few off. Time will tell.


Another big big wildcard in this is the change to the voting eligibility. A whole untested unknown group of voters who could have a sway.

Polls suggest 70%+ of 16 -24 Support Indy. Since the last one, where a swing of 250,000 votes would have won it. If we increase our vote by the same it's victory. In 2014 the over 65's carried the day. 7 years later that group has declined and the younger voters increased. Also many older people were conned. They know that and many have changed their minds. Every age group, apart from.them are in a majority to vote yes. I hope they do but still have my doubts. Nothing even close to certain.

 

[Coatigan]

Polls suggest 70%+ of 16 -24 Support Indy. Since the last one, where a swing of 250,000 votes would have won it. If we increase our vote by the same it's victory. In 2014 the over 65's carried the day. 7 years later that group has declined and the younger voters increased. Also many older people were conned. They know that and many have changed their minds. Every age group, apart from.them are in a majority to vote yes. I hope they do but still have my doubts. Nothing even close to certain.

That is most likely all true.

My point was not about them though so much, as they are a known-ish quantity.

It is more the inclusion of foreign nationals I meant (as a result of Brexit, partly, ironically enough).

the SNP may have played a bit of a blinder there.