Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
On the other hand, cases in France seem to have peaked, and France is almost certain to be testing more and finding a higher proportion of cases.

India, on the other hand, is currently experiencing exponential growth with a doubling time of just 10 days or so.
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True enough. I was looking at it purely statistically in terms of cases as percentage of population, and it's certainly getting worse in India.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
How I'd put it:

Most of the reduction in COVID so far has been down to lockdown, but vaccines are now really kicking in too, even though we're only half way through the vaccination programme.

By keeping up the vaccination until everyone is treated we can continue to open up slowly without any new surge in cases and deaths.

This is a new disease and new vaccines, so there is uncertainty in exactly how fast it is safe to reopen, hence we need to be cautious and keep an eye on the spread of the virus as we open up.
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roubaixtuesday said:
How I'd put it:

Most of the reduction in COVID so far has been down to lockdown, but vaccines are now really kicking in too, even though we're only half way through the vaccination programme.

By keeping up the vaccination until everyone is treated we can continue to open up slowly without any new surge in cases and deaths.

This is a new disease and new vaccines, so there is uncertainty in exactly how fast it is safe to reopen, hence we need to be cautious and keep an eye on the spread of the virus as we open up.
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which is A Much better way of putting it.

unfortunately this constant up playing of the effectiveness of the lockdowns and the downplaying of the vaccines just plays into the hands of the anti vaxxers who now may say

see you have all been jabbed and we still need a lockdown. Told you They don’t work.

as we move down the age groups those whose risk profile of dying of Covid is vastly decreasing will be more reluctant to get jabbed if we are going to say to them yeah get jabbed but we will still lock you down anyway.

danger is a few will say fuck that What’s the point.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
How I'd put it:

Most of the reduction in COVID so far has been down to lockdown, but vaccines are now really kicking in too, even though we're only half way through the vaccination programme.

By keeping up the vaccination until everyone is treated we can continue to open up slowly without any new surge in cases and deaths.

This is a new disease and new vaccines, so there is uncertainty in exactly how fast it is safe to reopen, hence we need to be cautious and keep an eye on the spread of the virus as we open up.
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That would have been a much more positive message for Bojo to have given. Both the lockdown and the vaccination programme have helped / are helping.

FWIW Had my first game of 5 a side football in over a year last night. Next Tuesday, we are booking a beer garden table for a pint after the game. The lockdown from January is over and people just need to take sensible precautions. Next month’s easing of the last meaningful restrictions, including Uni students returns in full, will mean the vast majority of things are close to being back to normal. Then we will just have to hope that live sports events will catch up with the rest of society.
 
I think people are reading too much into Boris's comment. Lockdowns ARE the reason that cases/deaths reduced.

Vaccines will be the reason we can continue out of lockdown without another significant wave.

There is no way that vaccines alone will have reduced this last wave the way a lockdown did. Acknowledging that isn't suggesting another lockdown,
 
Healdplace said:
Wales data:

62 cases - was 82 last week

Some really good numbers here again - FOUR consecutive days now with cases each time under 70. Remarkable.
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It's easy to overlook just how low these Welsh numbers are; I still have it in my mind that the valleys are swarming with Covid but see now Merthyr Tydfil only had 7 cases in last 7 days ! Great work.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Picking up, but a long way to go.

You can see why they stopped exports to us!

US/EU/India comparison:

View attachment 14198
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Thanks for update on India. EU issuing figures today. Source N. Gutteridge (Sun)

‘Ursula von der Leyen says there have now been 100m vaccinations across the EU, and more than 27m people have had both doses. She announces a deal with Pfizer to 'speed up' deliveries, and says the company will now provide an extra 50m doses to Member States this quarter (brings the figure to 250m for Q2)’

Also interesting news going forward

‘Von der Leyen also effectively confirms reports in La Stampa that the EU is going to focus on mRNA vaccines - which she says have 'proven their worth' - going forward for booster jabs/new variants. She announces negotiations with Pfizer for a further 1.8bn doses across 2022-23.’

Mordena is mRNA based, AZ and J&J are DNA based (if I understand correctly)
 
East Level 2 said:
What self-respecting virus would want to go to Merthyr Tydfil?
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It did last Winter. It had over 100 cases a day just in that borough and its Pop was one of the highest in the UK.

In the last 6 recorded days where cases have been assigned to the actual date Merthyr has had the grand total of just ONE case!
 
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