Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Why is it a mistake?
It is only a mistake if new cases translate into hospitalisations and hospitalisations into deaths. So far there is a minimal rise in hospitalisations (a few single vaccinated but no double vaccinated) and no rise in deaths for those vaccinated.
It’s a mistake because by opening up indoor hospitality before everybody has been offered a first jab, there is more chance of the virus being in circulation than there needs to be.

The fact that everybody will be at first jab stage in the next month means that had there been a little bit more patience, the baseline of cases would have been much lower. I could understand if the finish line (for the first jab) was months away, but it’s seems a daft decision when we are so close.

I thought I had read that 10% of those in hospital have had both jabs but I may be wrong.
 
ZOE APP - OTHER NUMBERS


(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


BURY 1057 / 5606 Another rise today by a small amount - and Bury cases today were up for real up to 33 - highesr in months.

BOLTON 747 / 2638 V 571 / 2015 - Up a bit but half of Bury and further behind Tameside. Its cases were up to 203 but down week to week from 280.

MANCHESTER 1497/ 2745 V 1451 / 2661 - up a little here. But cases up by 30 to 104 for real. Highest in a while\


These three and 'rampant' Tameside still the only GM boroughs in watch zones on Zoe.


Other GM Areas:-


OLDHAM 51/ 219 V 60 / 258 - happily another small fall here. But real cases up 12 to 31 today most in ages

ROCHDALE 69 / 318 V 63 / 290 edging up again today - but real casesat 43 were way up on recent weeks

SALFORD 52 / 207 V 49 / 192 a tiny rise again but real cases shot up to 60 from 28 and from 15 seven days ago.

STOCKPORT 83 / 286 V 75 / 260 - a small rise though real cases up by the most in months from 15 to 40

TRAFFORD 124 / 531 V 122 ; 521 - a little up up for second day today as were cazes for real at 16.

WIGAN 115 / 356 V 95 / 294 - a bit of a rise - though real cases up by just to 44 but have been riing all week.
 
Elsewhre on Zoe South Ribble is still going up at 641/ 5856 above everywhere ekse in NW save Tameside.

In Scotland a few areas are spiking on Zoe - North Ayrshire on 739 / 5507 and East Dunbartonshire on 783 / 7299

Aberdeen though has fallen off the watchlist on Zoe.

Kitklees in Yorkshire on 2603 / 5979 is the highest in Yorkshire

Stratfrd on Avon is still highest in the MIdlands on 874 / 6942

But Gloucester has been rising too in recent days on 715 / 5580

Nowhere down south has number much over 1000.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-





Tameside 64 Stockport 115 ,Trafford 127, Oldham 139, Bury 153, Rochdale 160, Salford 176, Wigan 222, Manchester 448, Bolton 1127.


Tameside the onky place below 100 in GM yet the worst in England on Zoe still. Weird. But even here is up just nowhere near everywhere else.

Bolton was miles ahead a few days ago and now has fallen from 25 x much of GM to under 10 times.

That shows you the pattern and if it continues and all end up somewhere around or just up from where mst boroughs are now all will be OK.

We just have to avoid any borough becoming another Bolton as Zoe is suggesting one or two might.

Just wonder why they seem so out of kilter with Tameside. Hope they have noted the anomaly and are asking th8is themselves.
 
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GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.





Bolton 392 / 387 / UP 5 Testing positive 10.2%

Bury 80 / 50 / UP 30 Testing positive 9.2%

Manchester 79 / 45 / UP 34 Testing positive 9.8%

Rochdale 74 / 35 / UP 39 Testing positive 9.8 %

Salford 69 / 22 / UP 47 Testing positive 9.1%

Wigan 67 / 28 / UP 39 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 58 / 19 / UP 39 Testing positive 9.9%

Trafford 53 / 39 / UP 14 Testing positive 7.2 %

Stockport 40 / 14 / UP 26 Testing positive 7.3%

Tameside 29 / 19 UP 10 Testing positive 8.2


Extraordinary shifts in the last few days. Bolton has not gone up in days and after falls even with over 200 cases today is at a POP of 392. The week to week rise that was up to 150 is now at a fairly modest 5. Indeed Salford, Manchester, Rochdale, Oldham AND Wigan are all now up a lot more week to week than Bolton. In fact EVERY borough is up more.

A very telling thing with mixed consequences.

Every single borough is rising now and the days (last week!) of multiple boroughs in the teens are long gone. Stockport alone has gone from 12 to 40 in just 6 days. But Salford has gone from 28 to 69 in those 6 days and Manchester 47 to 79.

So the race is what happens first - Bolton falls fast to sub 100 numbers or the rest of GM go up over 100.

AS long as nobody takes off like Bolton into the multi hundreds the question is of limited concern.
 
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Fucking disgraceful that we let the Indian variant through the borders so easily.

I agree. But do you reckon it really would have prevented it ? We are such an international hub with travel from all over the world , variants would have come in from other countries with the Indian variant.

Not to say we shouldn’t have not tried. But I don’t think it could have been prevented unless you really stop all flights from every destination
 
I agree. But do you reckon it really would have prevented it ? We are such an international hub with travel from all over the world , variants would have come in from other countries with the Indian variant.

Not to say we shouldn’t have not tried. But I don’t think it could have been prevented unless you really stop all flights from every destination
Nope mate, I know we couldn’t have prevented it completely, we know the reasons why. However, we could have limited it’s opportunity to spread so quickly.
 
I agree. But do you reckon it really would have prevented it ? We are such an international hub with travel from all over the world , variants would have come in from other countries with the Indian variant.

Not to say we shouldn’t have not tried. But I don’t think it could have been prevented unless you really stop all flights from every destination

I don't think it could have been prevented ultimately, but delayed somewhat which would have provided us more time to get more doses in arms and people protected thus lessening the effects.

Not shutting off India at least 2-3 weeks earlier than we did will go down as one of the most major fuck ups yet, and there's been a lot.
 
I don't think it could have been prevented ultimately, but delayed somewhat which would have provided us more time to get more doses in arms and people protected thus lessening the effects.

Not shutting off India at least 2-3 weeks earlier than we did will go down as one of the most major fuck ups yet, and there's been a lot.
Exactly.
 
Vaccines definitely seem to be the way out of this but currently the Pfizer supply isn’t great with the Moderna supply even worse. Meanwhile there are millions of doses of AZ sitting around in fridges and freezers only being used for second doses.
Perhaps they should properly explain the risks and then offer it to anyone who wants it?
Also looks like the single shot Jannsen will be here in July but, like AZ, not to be given to the under 40’s. It’ll be good for difficult to reach groups as you only have to find them once but not much else, sadly.
 
Vaccines definitely seem to be the way out of this but currently the Pfizer supply isn’t great with the Moderna supply even worse. Meanwhile there are millions of doses of AZ sitting around in fridges and freezers only being used for second doses.
Perhaps they should properly explain the risks and then offer it to anyone who wants it?
Also looks like the single shot Jannsen will be here in July but, like AZ, not to be given to the under 40’s. It’ll be good for difficult to reach groups as you only have to find them once but not much else, sadly.
Im far from being an expert in Vaccine manufacturing. But isnt it possible for other companies to make the Pfiezer and Moderna vaccine under license. And if not why not.
 
England hospital data is OK today too.

88 admissions - actually down from 90 last week.

24 of those are from the NW - up on last weeks 19 but down on 31 yesterday.

England patients are down too - by 3 - to 742. That is down 7 on last week. It fell by 8 last Thursday.
Yet, coming back from a restaurant tonight (full, great to see) all I heard on the news was a line that "cases up by 20%, hospital admissions up by 20%, deaths up as well, prepare for bad news and lockdown".
 
Just been offered appt for my second jab. I was already really feeling positive about the vaccine now, never more so. Still, that is tempered with the reality that the long term health cost for many survivors is upsetting, and going largely unnoticed.

I've got off lightly, but still am carrying a handful of very minor issues.

A lot of people out there are already affected by a lot of small health issues. Unvaccinated people spreading COVID would make life worse for a lot of people. And there's nothing like the minor benefits of good health to make you feel ok about things. I think 40 sths are going to feel it hard, because you are at that point where, it's very noticable that the regeneration of health slows down to a crawl. I am pretty much persuaded that COVID is therefore likely to effectively age some people prematurely. Fuck that shit.

It's not perfect, but this stuff needs to be dealt with as quickly and effectively as possible.
67% more transmissible than the variant from Kent. Fuck.

(PHE report).
Yeah. This is how it's going to go. We've done a reasonable job in reshaping the conditions to favour the the really virulent variants. As long as they aren't any more harmful or unstable, we're really just crossing an almost inevitable hump in the road.

The final, long term answer might well be a dummy COVID virus that spreads harmlessly in humans and animals. Because it's either that, vaccines that are much more effective in preventing transmission. Or genuinely closed borders, a working track and trace that can swoop down on new variants.

I mean, a real working track and trace, like Germany HAD, before they lost focus.

And then there are the measures they would need to ensure they could eradicate it. Which could look something like house arrest.

Anyone fancy that? Not the politicians. No chance. It's the kind of thing that would poll like enforced beatings for sickly children, until it became a thing, at which point, people would accept it - as they did lockdown. But there's no chance we'd get to that point, because we can just play this game of keeping enough people out of hospital that an excruciatingly slow progression towards normal life continues until the event of another heavy outbreak that threatens tens of thousands of lives, by which point, people will have been out and about for long enough to be ok with a period lockdown again when polled, and politicians will gladly take that as an easy choice and undemanding option that they can't really screw up or fail to deliver on.

Damn, it appears my cynicism has never faded, and I just stopped thinking or reading about it all for a few months to sort myself out.

I think I'll go back to that.
 
I’ve said here that I’m strongly in support of vaccines but wouldn’t back mandatory vaccinations. I’m starting to change that view as it’s clear it’s the only way out of this.

If they brought in a policy of mandatory vaccinations of everyone 16+ I’d probably back it.
 
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