Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Wales vaccination update:

655. 419 first doses given - 26, 659 yesterday - up from 24. 784 day before

3687 second doses given - 196 yesterday - down from 699
 
I just hope these improvements don't mean that we'll open up too soon again - we need to learn from our mistakes ans see this out, no matter how frustrating it might be! Otherwise we'll be opening the cycle all over again!
 
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

1612958938924.png

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...

Just as an aside on the dangers of ascribing causation to correlation, we can note that the falling trend here almost exactly coincides with City's winning run, which started on Dec 19th vs Southampton. And I don't think there's a correlation there! Nevertheless, it does look very hopeful.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...
this is great, but sadly barely visible in all settings deaths.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Update on the age range seen in hospital deaths. We should expect to see the numbers of older people falling as the vaccination programme takes effect.

View attachment 10185

Red dots are individual days data, blue line is a weekly moving average. The vaccination programme started 8th Dec.

It's now *very* clear that deaths in over 80s are falling consistently as a proportion of the total. I've had a look back at the first wave peak and this effect wasn't evident then, which implies something is different now.

So I think this is now pretty compelling evidence that we are seeing the vaccine having an effect on deaths in the UK, though not definitive by any means. At some point this trend should stop as the vaccinations of younger cohorts come through.

Data is here, using day of death. Final day is cut off as the numbers are so small, and the last few days will be revised quite a bit yet, so subject to future change.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
Click to expand...
That is good news and matches the impressions I have been posting from the England hospital deaths every day for the past week or so when this effect started to become apparent in the numbers there.

Being the largest single day figure it is the most instructive - limited as it is given the large age ranges offered.

Always good to see reassurance that what we hoped for and appeared to be starting to see is - with the caveat you rightly apply - potentially happening.

What will be interesting to see is if the Scottish decision to vaccinate care homes first will reveal that over 80s deaths there fell before they did in England.

Certainly the high out of hospital numbers we are getting from England still imply that might be a factor.
 
shemnel said:
this is great, but sadly barely visible in all settings deaths.
Click to expand...

I've not looked at that data - my guess was that variation in care home outbreaks would mask a vaccine effect. Was it you that posted the visualisation of that data a few days ago?
 
paulchapo said:
I'm trying, I really am trying to keep positive but I have reached real low points just recently. This announcement overnight that anyone lying about where they've travelled from can be imprisoned for TEN years astonished me. How can this be possible without parliamentary discussion and a vote? Yet all over the country pandemic or not kids are stabbing and killing one another and I don't see such a huge response to stop that.

It's the constant lies and shifting of the goalposts too. Just six weeks, just three months, just until we have a vaccine, just until the vulnerable are vaccinated, now it's when EVERYONE is vaccinated and as if that's not enough it's now when the whole world is vaccinated. It's like psychological torture.
Click to expand...
I think we thought the spike protein would be conserved but it has not been so. The situation is not so bad. We can get rid of 99% of the current virus but its not clear how well we can keep in check the variants. We don't know how effective our vaccines are against them, and which we will end up using, and we don't know how quickly it's going to evolve. I think the uncertainty means we are likely to be in lockdown longer than we might have expected until it is clear how we can control the variants.
It is more important than ever to take the vaccines as it seems background transmission is likely to continue
 
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