Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I remember, and it might even have been on here, reading someone explain Covid as being like a piece of string with a series of knots tied into it. The analogy was that if you tied a balloon to one end of the string and let go it would start to pull the knots up one by one. So the first to rise represented case numbers the second one along was people going into hospital, the 3rd as people got really sick was the number being put onto ventilators and then finally the last knot to lift up was deaths.
I think where we are at now is that we've caught the balloon and dragged it back down again which means the knots are pretty much flat on the floor again. The vaccines are pieces of sticky tape placed on the string between the case numbers and hospitalisations, hospitalisations and ventilators and again between ventilators and deaths. We've let the balloon go again which has increased the cases but we are waiting to see whether the sticky tape holds! The problem is, this new variant has put more helium into the balloon than we'd hoped so we aren't sure yet if the tape is strong enough!
 
paulchapo said:
I was in Chester yesterday and it was absolutely rammed. No social distancing, queues for ice cream, food, pubs and all in close proximity. Pavements packed, riverboats too. If that has been replicated around the country in the hot weather then if hospitalisations and deaths don't rocket it should be a good sign
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Yep, yet some are saying how unbearable this lockdown is - we're pretty much back to norm as it is.
 


Recommend this thread for anyone who can't understand why although there isn't a problem right now, there is serious potential to be in the future.

On current trends, we will reach 50,000 daily cases by end of July. 2,500 admissions per day.

Circumstances such as weather and possible vaccine acceleration might slow it down, but for balance, equally the sheer rate of transmission of this Delta variant may speed it up.

Things look fine now, and might look fine on June 21st, but the foundations are there for huge problems in a few of months time.

This isn't meant to be a scaremongering thread, and it isn't set in stone. I'd really recommend reading it and trying to understand it.
 
Marvin said:
There's another factor which you are not considering but that is important. A spreading variant that does not cause serious illness/hospitalisation is still a problem because it is continually mutating. There are about 7-8 mutations already that have been identified since the Indian variant has been in the UK, some of them at locations such as 484 which contributed to the SA variant escaping the Astrazeneca vaccine.

When are the GSK/Valneva vaccines due? What is their manufacturing capability, distribution likely to be.

At the moment our vaccines are effective but we can see that they will have a limited shelf-life. What we do depends on some variables which we don't know but I assume SAGE have a better handle on them.
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Where are you getting the info from that says these are better at handling the variants than other vaccines? currently no variant has come close to skipping immunity. some have a slight better resistance to antibodies but currently the TCell immunity is solid by all accounts.


this is ( apparently ) someone that works for one of the big Bio firms ( Moderna I think ) on the vaccine team. they tweet a lot about the vaccine and how its working.
 
The way the media manipulated the zero deaths number yesterday was very noticeable.

Every week they say things like - there were only 6 deaths today BUT deaths are always low after the weekend so this is not really accurate because....But suddenly this 0 mattered more.

It is not. It was an inevitability almost given recent low numbers and the double whammy of both a weekend AND a bank holiday Monday where registration was delayed.

Obviously it will be up a bit today. Hopefully not by much. But if it is say 10 - are they going to go into hysterics or point out why? As in the missing ones not registered over the weekend.

What matters most is the trend not any single day numbers.

There are atually some small signs of a slight uptick in deaths this week in England hospitals but I have said nothing as it will not be clear until we get two or three days of data catching up the missing data over the long weekend.

The one truth is that deaths have essentially plateaued But then that is kind of inevitable when you get anywhere near zero. You cannot go below that for fairly obvious reasons.

And in truth yesterday was 1 death reported and why that one hospital death reported was removed is unclear. It was from just 24 hours before so was not an old one double counted as is the usual reason or is out of date as from months ago. This was neither.
 
Healdplace said:
The way the media manipulated the zero deaths number yesterday was very noticeable.

Every week they say things like - there were only 6 deaths today BUT deaths are always low after the weekend so this is not really accurate because....But suddenly this 0 mattered more.

It is not. It was an inevitability almost given recent low numbers and the double whammy of both a weekend AND a bank holiday Monday where registration was delayed.

Obviously it will be up a bit today. Hopefully not by much. But if it is say 10 - are they going to go into hysterics or point out why? As in the missing ones not registered over the weekend.

What matters most is the trend not any single day numbers.

There are atually some small signs of a slight uptick in deaths this week in England hospitals but I have said nothing as it will not be clear until we get two or three days of data catching up the missing data over the long weekend.

The one truth is that deaths have essentially plateaued But then that is kind of inevitable when you get anywhere near zero. You cannot go below that for fairly obvious reasons.

And in truth yesterday was 1 death reported and why that one hospital death reported was removed is unclear. It was from just 24 hours before so was not an old one double counted as is the usual reason or is out of date as from months ago. This was neither.
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"Are they going to go into hysterics" . I think we all know the answer to that.

Notable exception - Dr Chris Smith on the late night Colin Murray programme (Radio 5 Mondays, midnight) is an exemplar of how to explain things without hysterics.
 
Wales data

NB: THIS COVERS TWO DAYS - MONDAY & TUESDAY - BECAUSE OF THE BANK HOLIDAY

THE VERSUS IS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS LAST WEEK NOT JUST LAST WEDNESDAYS REPORT

0 deaths - was 1 last week

83 cases - was 47 last week

0,9% positivity - was 0.4% last week

More concerningly the number of ventilator patients in Wales has risen from 1 to 5 - edging up every couple of days.

Though patient numbers FELL in most recent data and are at just 17 in hospital in all of Wales with Covid. Though that data is up to last Friday.


Wales numbers are slightly up week to week when you compare like to like. The NW variant cases seems to be starting to take a bit of a hold across the borders from England at very low numbers so far thankfully.
 
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Zoe App news!

Let us hope they are wrong today.

Predicting another big rise.

Cases from 4527 up by the biggest rise in months 1188 to 5715. Would be biggest numbers in months and really create a feeling we might be heading rowards third wave. In cases only at present

Symptomatic reported Covid also jumped up by 6328 in one day to 64. 993 - again the biggest jump I can recall in 5 months following Zoe numbers daily.

We need to hope this is not mirrored in real data.

Scotland is shown as driving this by becoming the top part of the UK in the upper dark red zone.

North West is up too and so is the Midlands.

Even the South East rises a category.

This is not good news from Zoe.
 
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Zoe now shows a wall of pink or red watch zones from Southport and surrounds on the west coast - unbroken heading east through West Lancashire (up in the high 3000s) - across the entirity of Greater Manchester - unfortunately as I feared yesterday - EVERY one of the 10 GM boroughs now in the watch zones - and over the border into Yorkshire via Huddersfield,Leeds and Barnsley to the outskirts of Doncaster.
 
Healdplace said:
The way the media manipulated the zero deaths number yesterday was very noticeable.

Every week they say things like - there were only 6 deaths today BUT deaths are always low after the weekend so this is not really accurate because....But suddenly this 0 mattered more.

It is not. It was an inevitability almost given recent low numbers and the double whammy of both a weekend AND a bank holiday Monday where registration was delayed.

Obviously it will be up a bit today. Hopefully not by much. But if it is say 10 - are they going to go into hysterics or point out why? As in the missing ones not registered over the weekend.

What matters most is the trend not any single day numbers.

There are atually some small signs of a slight uptick in deaths this week in England hospitals but I have said nothing as it will not be clear until we get two or three days of data catching up the missing data over the long weekend.

The one truth is that deaths have essentially plateaued But then that is kind of inevitable when you get anywhere near zero. You cannot go below that for fairly obvious reasons.

And in truth yesterday was 1 death reported and why that one hospital death reported was removed is unclear. It was from just 24 hours before so was not an old one double counted as is the usual reason or is out of date as from months ago. This was neither.
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I’d imagine deaths reported today will be between 20-30, which will be reported as a 100-200% rise from Wednesday to Wednesday. It will, of course, be flat week on week but I suspect we know what a disaster it will be portrayed as.....
 
Bolton btw is the second LOWEST in GM (only Salford less in Zoe numbers - though both in the lowest watch zone in the 1000s).

Every other borough is in higher watch zones.

Trafford the worst in the 8000s - though Tameside is likely above it (being shown as in the 13,000s but not enough data to guarantee accuracy).

Bury next (in the 6000s) Oldham (in the 4000s)

Manchester and Rochdale (in the 3000s)

The lowest two boroughs of the other 8 are Wigan and Stockport (in the 2000s).


The good news is they are two of the best vaccinated boroughs in the NW (see the vaccination data posted for all GM in here last night) and the only two in GM with over half the population vaccinated with both doses.

Happily I suspect that is not a coincidence and is likely showing the way out and explains the plans announced to speed up 18 and over vaccinations from now on.
 
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Out of curiosity, how does this Zoe app come to these numbers? People reporting any kind of symptoms that may or may not end up being covid?
 
True_Blue69 said:
Out of curiosity, how does this Zoe app come to these numbers? People reporting any kind of symptoms that may or may not end up being covid?
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Yes but the questions asked are cross referenced to suggest a covid infection and ask you to get tested.
 
grunge said:
Where are you getting the info from that says these are better at handling the variants than other vaccines? currently no variant has come close to skipping immunity. some have a slight better resistance to antibodies but currently the TCell immunity is solid by all accounts.


this is ( apparently ) someone that works for one of the big Bio firms ( Moderna I think ) on the vaccine team. they tweet a lot about the vaccine and how its working.
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The first article below was published in Nature yesterday.

Harvey, W.T., Carabelli, A.M., Jackson, B. et al. SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape. Nat Rev Microbiol (2021).

Huang, B. et al. Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 501Y.V2 by human antisera elicited by both inactivated BBIBP-CorV and recombinant dimeric RBD ZF2001 vaccines.

The following link is to research which concluded that a "two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant."

Madhi, S. A. et al. Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant. N. Engl. J. Med.
 
My 26 year old daughter has just had her invitation for her first shot of Pfizer. Irlam Leisure Centre next week.

They are definitely speeding up vaccinations.
 
Scotland data UP and away sadly.

1 death - was 0 last week

677 cases - was 546 last week

2.8% positivity - was 2.1% last week

Positivity rising now is showing the rise is real not just more testing.

114 in hospital - up 8 in 24 hours and 16 on last week

10 ventilated ICU - same as yesterday - was 6 last week
 
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