Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[Cityfan]

A family friend died last week in hospital of lung cancer. But whilst in there he tested positive for COVID. Now will be listed as a COVID stat?

If he dies within 28 days of his first Covid test he will definitely be recorded in that figure. That is not the final figure given by the ONS which records death certificate data. What is recorded there will depend on what the doctors attending thought what happened and how important the contributing factors were.
He may have Covid listed as the main cause of death with lung cancer contributing , he may have lung cancer listed as the main cause with covid contributing. If he had no clinical features of Covid whasoever but was tested positive on a screening test or if he had had mild covid but had obviously recovered from it but had problems from the lung cancer it might not be listed.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Great stuff. Their lockdown seems to be doing fuck all mind, given they started before we did. Look at the <60s numbers!

 

[Cityfan]

That's good news. There were several inconclusive trials, but its use had recently been approved following the REMAP CAP trial and it is being used so it is very good news that the evidence is supported by another major trial.

 

[Ban-jani]

Yes as I understand it.

"Died of any cause within 28 days of a positive test" is the standard reported statistic.

Of course, there will be people like your family friend who sadly die of other causes and make an overcount.

Equally, there will be some people who are never tested and die, or die beyond 28 days, and cause an undercount.

Overall, the "within 28 days" seems to be a reasonable compromise whilst giving a simple and consistent statistic.

Overall excess deaths and deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate are two other measures which are broadly consistent.

What about the report that said lockdown measures are killing 2 people for every 3 that die of Covid?

Excess deaths cannot be used to count Covid imo, there’s loads of cases of the above and people not receiving vital care for other reasons and lockdown debilitating health generally.

I am not for a minute posting an anti lockdown message here, it’s the best of a bad situation with cases and deaths so high, I just don’t think excess deaths should be the measure.

 

[feedthegoat27]

If that is something which happens I guess the government would have to take that into account and would announce how something like a vaccine passport would work. That said anyone thinking of booking a holiday abroad at the moment needs to give their heads a wobble

Should give their head a wobble because.....reasons?

Lot of people are looking ahead to 2022, if someone spots something they fancy and want to stick a deposit down on, why the fuck shouldn't they?

Hell, if someone see's something they fancy for this June and they wanna take a punt on it then good for them, I'm sure they are aware of the various eventualities and as long as they book with a reputable operator then the 'risk' is low.

Do you show this much disdain towards people who are booking to see their favourite bands either later this year or next year?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

What about the report that said lockdown measures are killing 2 people for every 3 that die of Covid?

Excess deaths cannot be used to count Covid imo, there’s loads of cases of the above and people not receiving vital care for other reasons and lockdown debilitating health generally.

I am not for a minute posting an anti lockdown message here, it’s the best of a bad situation with cases and deaths so high, I just don’t think excess deaths should be the measure.

Yeah, I don't think there is a single measure. They all tell you slightly different things, but are pretty consistent AFAICT.

I'm not familiar with the report you mention and I'm pretty certain there evidence is that lockdown isn't killing many people at all, maybe even reducing deaths other than COVID net. It's just shit, rather than net lethal (yet - longer term might be another matter). Anyway, if you know what the report is, drop a link in.

 

[Ban-jani]

Yeah, I don't think there is a single measure. They all tell you slightly different things, but are pretty consistent AFAICT.

I'm not familiar with the report you mention and I'm pretty certain there evidence is that lockdown isn't killing many people at all, maybe even reducing deaths other than COVID net. It's just shit, rather than net lethal (yet - longer term might be another matter). Anyway, if you know what the report is, drop a link in.

Lockdown 'killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus' at peak of outbreak​

Estimates show 16,000 people died through missed medical care by May 1, while virus killed 25,000 in same period

Source: ONS

This was first lockdown mind you, hopefully they’ve improved since we’ve got used to lockdowns now?

 

[Berts Neck]

How many people do you think are included in the death figures because they were knocked over by a bus a week after testing positive for Covid? Do you think it is more or less than the number of people who are excluded from the death figures because their test was more than a month before they lost their life?

I think the experts have said that excess deaths is the best indicator of Covid mortality so I understand we’ve done terribly on that score too, despite the heroic efforts of the NHS.

As far as I understand, and please correct me if I am wrong. A death certificate will record the cause of death whether it is Covid, Cancer or trauma from a bus accident at the time of death. The NHS stats relate to any death within 28 days of diagnosis of Covid . I assume Covid is now a notifiable disease and statisticians correlate the number of people who have been notified as having Covid,and then look at death certificates for those dying within 28 days of receiving that notification. If you believe the two to be identical so be it. I just suggested the two may not be the same.Personally I would prefer to look at the numbers of deaths actually certified as Covid, because if you get better and still die of it four weeks,six weeks later, it is still Covid on the death certificate. If you die of something else, it is recorded as such, like bus trauma.

 

[Healdplace]

That is nice to see the data from Israel. Very encouraging.

Especially as GM is the UK epicentre right now.

Relatively speaking.

Not a great day today - especially if you live in Bolton or Stockport.

Big rises here and both too close for comfort to the total in Manchester - which was itself down and low at 139.

Bolton was only 4 behind it at 135!

Bolton and Stockport between them accounted for half the 183 rise in GM - which is well over half the NW rise itself. And the NW rise was the most in England.

One day' numbers and it could easily flip tomorrow but today all but demolished the 11 month long Pop Score lead Stockport has held over Trafford - which also rose by 50% and was pipped to lowest numbers by Rochdale.

Every GM borough today was between Rochdale's 60 - and Manchester's 139 - the smallest spread in quite some time.

So not by any means disaster but undoubtedly it is now a trend that the NW is contributing the most positive cases and GM more than its share of them.

Hopefully just lagging behind the rest and not in real trouble. Just doing the least well in the improvement race.

Though it had the least room for big falls that Merseyside and the South East did. So things might change in coming days.