Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BerkshireBlue]

Nah mate, no apology needed, they're extremely effective. Remarkable actually and 2 doses in particular are where we need to get to. We really need everyone to get vaccinated as quickly as possible and I can't wait to get my first dose in a couple of weeks time.

I'm only correcting Berkshire blue that the variants haven't had any impact on them (which they have), and that nobody is in hospital who's had the vaccine (which they are, even if low numbers), that was all.

Your data shows an efficacy of 92% which is exactly the same as the stated efficacy. No impact so correct yourself please

 

[PinkFinal]

Belgium's Van Ranst: Covid scientist targeted by a far-right sniper

Many scientists have come under attack in the pandemic, but Marc Van Ranst's family are in a safe house.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Marvin]

Except they haven't had any impact

Not true. This is from a Director of Public Health and is exactly the problem.

"If the variant spreads and becomes even more, it may mutate again and the big concern is that vaccines won’t work. We really want to get people tested and isolated if they’ve got the virus, stop the spread so that we can make sure the vaccination programme works."

A summary of the mutations and the effect each has on the antibody reactions can be found here:

http://sars2.cvr.gla.ac.uk/cog-uk/

And it has citations so if you want to check the veracity of the data you can.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE DATA:

THE BIGGEST DAILY RISE YET UNFORTUNATELY

Estimated Cases up `1375 in 24 hours from 6798 to 8173

Ongoing symptomatic infections up a new high in 24 hours of 8289 also from 74, 771 to 83, 060

These numbers are still escalating day by day and not showing any sign of slowing down.


And NORTH WEST Is back up above Scotland as the worst region in the UK.



GM DATA ON ZOE

Bolton FALLS today into the lowest watch zone on 1946 - from 3053 yesterday.


Nearly all GM are boroughs ahead of it now.


Bury has risen again to 8826 from 7779. Well clear as highest.


Trafford back up to 6090 from the 4000s two days ago - though Tameside is likely above it but has dropped into the 11,000s with not enough local data to guarantee accuracy so as always not counted by Zoe).


Rochdale shoots up again to 5052 from 3496

Manchester also shoots up a lot from 2820 to 5038. Now way over the Bolton number.

Oldham falls a bit to 4278 from 4375.

Wigan rises again to 3781 from 2779


Only the oter two boroughs are actually down in the same lowest watch zone as Bolton' on Zoe now.


Stockport - has a fall into the lowest watch zone on 1990 from 2521 yesterday - and just above

Bolton now on just 1946 well down again as it has been falling day by day.

Salford - bafflingly given its big numbers in real cases is still showing as only just in the lowest watch zone edging up slightly to 1314 from 1269.

Indeed the only THREE GM Boroughs in the lowest watch zone - the 1000s - Bolton, Salford and Stockport had between them 363 of GMs 945 cases yesterday.

But these are large populated boroughs so cases pro rata to population are expected to be high.

Not sure it explains though why Bolton and Salford have the two highest Pop Scores in GM right now (which evens out population numbers) at 309 and 187 - and Stockport is up by a huge 93 points in 7 days to 147.

So I am a little cautious of the Zoe numbers still.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

And 4 weeks if you live in Bolton apparently? They have the Pfizer supply. Can't keep it more than 31 days after removing from deep freeze so some is going to early 2nd vaccinations according to reports.

Which is absolute madness, if true. Up until 2 weeks ago Pfizer could only be kept in a fridge for 5 days (in reality for paharmacies and GP surgeries that was 3 and a half day) so the idea they have to vaccinate ‘out of cohort’ to not waste vaccine, is preposterous. Not only that, all the evidence seems to be that the double jab gap is most effective at 11-12 weeks.
Finally, there really isn't a river of vaccine at the minute so giving as many people as possible one shot is infinitely preferable to giving people in Bolton 2 in a month.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

ZOE DATA:

THE BIGGEST DAILY RISE YET UNFORTUNATELY

Estimated Cases up `1375 in 24 hours from 6798 to 8173

Ongoing symptomatic infections up a new high in 24 hours of 8289 also from 74, 771 to 83, 060

These numbers are still escalating day by day and not showing any sign of slowing down.


And NORTH WEST Is back up above Scotland as the worst region in the UK.



GM DATA ON ZOE

Bolton FALLS today into the lowest watch zone on 1946 - from 3053 yesterday.


Nearly all GM are boroughs ahead of it now.


Bury has risen again to 8826 from 7779. Well clear as highest.


Trafford back up to 6090 from the 4000s 8000s two days ago - though Tameside is likely above it but has dropped into the 11,000s with not enough local data to guarantee accuracy so as always not counted by Zoe).


Rochdale shoots up again to 5052 from 3496

Manchester also shoots up a lot from 2820 to 5038. Now way over the Bolton number.

Oldham falls a bit to 4278 from 4375.

Wigan rises again to 3781 from 2779


Only the rest are actually down in thw same loest watch zone as Bolton's 1946 on Zoe now.


Stockport - though - has a fall into the lowest watchzone and just above Bolton on 1990 from 2521 yesterday.

Salford - bafflingly given its big numbers in real cases is still showing as only just in the lowest watch zone edging up slightlt to 1314 from 1269.

Indeed the only THREE GM Boroughs in the lowest watch zone - the 1000s - Bolton, Salford and Stockport had between them 363 of GMs 945 cases yesterday.

But these are large populated boroughs so cases pro rata to population are epected to be high.

Not sure it explains though why Bolton and Salford have the two highest Pop Scores in GM right now (which eves out population numbers) at 309 and 187 - and Stockport i up 93 points in 7 days to 147.

I expect very low deaths today, which is THE key metric.

 

[True_Blue69]

ZOE DATA:

THE BIGGEST DAILY RISE YET UNFORTUNATELY

Estimated Cases up `1375 in 24 hours from 6798 to 8173

Ongoing symptomatic infections up a new high in 24 hours of 8289 also from 74, 771 to 83, 060

These numbers are still escalating day by day and not showing any sign of slowing down.


And NORTH WEST Is back up above Scotland as the worst region in the UK.



GM DATA ON ZOE

Bolton FALLS today into the lowest watch zone on 1946 - from 3053 yesterday.


Nearly all GM are boroughs ahead of it now.


Bury has risen again to 8826 from 7779. Well clear as highest.


Trafford back up to 6090 from the 4000s two days ago - though Tameside is likely above it but has dropped into the 11,000s with not enough local data to guarantee accuracy so as always not counted by Zoe).


Rochdale shoots up again to 5052 from 3496

Manchester also shoots up a lot from 2820 to 5038. Now way over the Bolton number.

Oldham falls a bit to 4278 from 4375.

Wigan rises again to 3781 from 2779


Only the oter two are actually down in thr same loest watch zone as Bolton' on Zoe now.


Stockport - though - has a fall into the lowest watch zone on 1990 from 2521 yesterday - and just above

Bolton on 1946 well down again as it has been falling day by day.

Salford - bafflingly given its big numbers in real cases is still showing as only just in the lowest watch zone edging up slightly to 1314 from 1269.

Indeed the only THREE GM Boroughs in the lowest watch zone - the 1000s - Bolton, Salford and Stockport had between them 363 of GMs 945 cases yesterday.

But these are large populated boroughs so cases pro rata to population are epected to be high.

Not sure it explains though why Bolton and Salford have the two highest Pop Scores in GM right now (which evens out population numbers) at 309 and 187 - and Stockport is up by a huge 93 points in 7 days to 147.

Hopefully a lot of people with hayfever reporting symptoms. Has been massively exaggerated the figures on Zoe recently, most are obviously turning out to not be covid.

 

[Healdplace]

DE

I expect very low deaths today, which is THE key metric.

Deaths versus cases in this wave are totally different as was shown by lots of evidence I posted from all 4 nations in here yesterday comparing the December Kent wave with the current Indian wave.

Deaths AND hospitalisations as those posts showed utterly different then and now and fairly obviously the vaccines are the key reason why.

BUT - and it is a big but - hospital data and deaths always lag cases and these case numbers are now exponentially rising at a level even much bigger than last week.

I hope the link is indeed broken and stays broken between cases and hospital numbers and death. If it is we are coming out of this in relative comfort over coming weeks.

However, it is simply too early to say that with assurance just yet.

 

[BlueHammer85]

DE


Deaths versus cases in this wave are totally different as was shown by lots of evidence I posted from all 4 nations in here yesterday comparing the December Kent wave with the current Indian wave.

Deaths AND hospitalisations as those posts showed utterly different then and now and fairly obviously the vaccines are the key reason why.

BUT - and it is a big but - hospital data and deaths always lag cases and these case numbers are now exponentially rising at a level even much bigger than last week.

I hope the link is indeed broken and stays broken between cases and hospital numbers and death. If it is we are coming out of this in relative comfort over coming weeks.

However, it is simply too early to say that with assurance just yet.

it’s mad how people don’t seem to realise deaths occur about 3-4 weeks after infection.

If cases are rising rapidly but deaths low. That’s now. But 3-4 weeks would give us the real picture.

 

[BlueHammer85]

One of the Goverments proposals- keep people working from home but allow them to go pubs/club and mingle!

 

[Healdplace]

Other ZOE data

Preston on 8256 is only just behind Bury as worst in NW.

West Lancahire up to 5126 in the upper watch zones too.


Zoe are actually not a lot of help in the current mess as hardly anyone in East Lancahire contributes and they are unable to pot any numbers for the most impacted places in the UK - East Lancashire - Blackburn. Burnley. Hyndburn. Rossendale etc.

So without that data NW Is skewed to places that are almost certainly not in the top 3 or 4 most infected even in the NW let alone the UK.

More of Yorkshire is turning red too - in the high 3000s upwards. So it does seem to have started to spread there.

Sunderland is riing up and up too - now on 5903. Explaining why the NE cases of around 60 a day have quickly vanihed in recent days.

In Scotland Perth and Kinross at 7213 is peaking the highest.

Luton at 5201 is highest down south and more little vlobs are appearing and places like Southwark closing in on such scores.

Bedford os part of a larg areas round there now in watch zones on 4223

However, the big surprise - explaining a spike in numbers there lately is Teignbridge in the South West.

A large swathe aound popular hoplidy spots such as Dawlish is now in higher watch zones on 3339

 

[Healdplace]

it’s mad how people don’t seem to realise deaths occur about 3-4 weeks after infection.

If cases are rising rapidly but deaths low. That’s now. But 3-4 weeks would give us the real picture.

Exactly I think when I keep saying - as do the experts - it is too early to call - this is not a mantra - it is a reality.

We will not know what the doubling of cases in the past few days will actually do in hospitals and deaths before we are due to open up. That is a fact. Not a cop out.

I do not really see much alternative now but to a delay of maybe a few weeks to see where we are for sure. Though the likelihood that would play well is small so who knows. I think they will hold out hoping it still can be done. Or in some form at least.

I am still optimistic the chain will hold and we will get there without a major wave.

But it is a big risk to just hope it will right now.

It is a tricky time to make these decisions. And one that could have been averted with more decisive action over INdia travel. Which I suspect they know well enough to be having a hard time deciding to be cautious and fess up why that is now necessary.

They would regain a lot of trust if they were straight with the public fessed up and said but we can still do this with your support.

Would love to be surprised that this is what they will do.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

But you did about 5 posts back when you called my post wrong. Again this data is showing the great efficacy of the vaccine. So unless you want to give me evidence the vaccine is not working against the variants then I presume you're wrong.

But he’s not said anything like the vaccine isn’t working against the variants. He was correcting one of your multiple incorrect statements like “The fact is non of these variants are denting the vaccines at the moment”… and another one was “Every single case of the current hospitalisations haven't had a jab.”

You’re reaching for sensationalist statements and presenting them as fact, that are unfortunately non-factual. If you’d said “these variants are only having a small impact on the vaccines” and “most of the current hospitalisations haven’t had the jab”, you’d be right. But being nearly right isn’t being right.

Then when you’re being presented with data to show you’re wrong you say they are wrong because they don’t prove something that neither they or you originally even said.

I've noticed a lot of this going on in this thread recently.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Exactly I think when I keep saying - as do the experts - it is too early to call - this is not a mantra - it is a reality.

We will; not know what the doubling of cases in the past few days will actually do in hospitals and deaths before we are due to open up. That is a fact. Not a cop out.

I do not really see ,uch alternative now bit to a delay of maybe 3 weeks to see where we are

I am still optimistic the chain will hold and we will get there. But it is a big risk to just hope it will right now.

I’m optimistic
The vaccines are going great and seem to be really keeping levels down.

but that news headline the other day with zero deaths when cases were increasing from around 2000-3000 was so silly and so many people were celebrating it like it was all over.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Exactly I think when I keep saying - as do the experts - it is too early to call - this is not a mantra - it is a reality.

We will; not know what the doubling of cases in the past few days will actually do in hospitals and deaths before we are due to open up. That is a fact. Not a cop out.

I do not really see ,uch alternative now bit to a delay of maybe 3 weeks to see where we are

I am still optimistic the chain will hold and we will get there. But it is a big risk to just hope it will right now.

Although SAGE reported that the average time, for hospitalised patients, between symptom onset and death was 12 days in wave 1 and 7 days in wave 2. Assuming that still holds true the Bolton hospitalisations and death data are very encouraging in suggesting that the link with cases and deaths has indeed been broken.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

But he’s not said anything like the vaccine isn’t working against the variants. He was correcting one of your multiple incorrect statements like “The fact is non of these variants are denting the vaccines at the moment”… and another one was “Every single case of the current hospitalisations haven't had a jab.”

You’re reaching for sensationalist statements and presenting them as fact, that are unfortunately non-factual. If you’d said “these variants are only having a small impact on the vaccines” and “most of the current hospitalisations haven’t had the jab”, you’d be right. But being nearly right isn’t being right.

Then when you’re being presented with data to show you’re wrong you say they are wrong because they don’t prove something that neither they or you originally even said.

I've noticed a lot of this going on in this thread recently.

He posted proof and data that the vaccines aren't denting hospitalisations. So reread the facts he posted

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Professor Jason Leitch from Scotland was on the news earlier saying that although not definite it would appear that the vaccines were loosening the chain between cases and hospitalisations.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

But he’s not said anything like the vaccine isn’t working against the variants. He was correcting one of your multiple incorrect statements like “The fact is non of these variants are denting the vaccines at the moment”… and another one was “Every single case of the current hospitalisations haven't had a jab.”

You’re reaching for sensationalist statements and presenting them as fact, that are unfortunately non-factual. If you’d said “these variants are only having a small impact on the vaccines” and “most of the current hospitalisations haven’t had the jab”, you’d be right. But being nearly right isn’t being right.

Then when you’re being presented with data to show you’re wrong you say they are wrong because they don’t prove something that neither they or you originally even said.

I've noticed a lot of this going on in this thread recently.

Second Covid-19 jabs ‘to be sped up for over 40s’ | LBC

People over the age of 40 are set to be offered their second Covid-19 jab after eight weeks instead of 12 to help keep the country on the roadmap out of lockdown.

www.lbc.co.uk

7 people hospitalised at the end of May, 0 from June at the moment. Nothing I've posted is incorrect

 

[Healdplace]

I’m optimistic
The vaccines are going great and seem to be really keeping levels down.

but that news headline the other day with zero deaths when cases were increasing from around 2000-3000 was so silly and so many people were celebrating it like it was all over.

The media being silly. I would never have thought it.

Once - long time ago - a story I had told a journalist in an interview about my then fiance and myself being on his motorbike on a long trek on a motorwaywas inexplicably made into a tiny promotional TV ad for the publication carrying that story. I had no idea until seeing it on air one night that they were even doing this.

We both laughed out loud at the idea let alone the ad itself. It bore about as much resemblance to the story as does the zero death numbers on one day to where we might be a month from now. Almost every single fact was changed to jazz up the ad. But when I questioned that it was not remotely accurate I was told - 'no, but it will still get people buying and reading the story.'

That was decades ago and the media have not changed for the better sadly. All about getting attention to sell their wares and presentation over facts.

I just got used to it and stayed away from the media and do not trust them as a source on this pandemic for sure as there is always an agenda.

 

[mancity1]

What does everyone make of these Fauci emails that have been released? Surprised they haven’t been discussed on here. Potential cover up regarding a lab creating the virus and evidence from other countries that Hydroxychloroquine is effective yet he chose to say it wasn’t are 2 of the it’s people are talking about. All seems very dodgy.

I breached the subject briefly on the US Politics thread (perhaps not the most appropriate thread) but the jury is well and truly out IMO however it does require further investigation in so far as we need a full and thorough explanation into the origins of Covid for many good reasons least of all how to respond better to the next covid outbreak and learn from our mistakes this time around.

Fauci denied emphatically the funds from virus experimentation in Wuhan Labs came originally from the same institute funded under Obama and Trump.

There is mounting evidence this is not the case but as to Fauci's knowledge at the time the paper trail and the money trail still needs further investigation as to Fauci's knowledge and involvement.

He is on the record stating masks are ineffective and then stating the reverse months on and while this is not evidence he is corrupt he has been an influential figure in the US response to Covid.

There is little doubt Wuhan were involved in virus creation and to say it could not have leaked into the community given a number of employees reported being sick in Oct / Nov 2019 and the statements supporting a lab leak have been covered up by the CCP even to the point where the WHO suggest the lab leak deserves more scrutiny and cannot be ruled out now contrary to earlier views that is was " highly unlikely if nigh impossible " and it originated from animal to human transmission created in nature as such.

Given Fauci's connection to Wuhan it seems at least plausible that he knew more than he was letting on.

Given that many members of the CCP deny that the 1988 massacre even took place its no surprise they would deny any responsibility as to the origins of the Wuhan Flu that has strengthened their position in terms of World Power significantly.