Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Im sorry, but how do you see 4000 admissions on a daily basis after the vaccination programme we have had? That doesn't add up to me?

It's simply the current ratio we see: hospitalisations are running at ~4% of cases right now (with a lag).

How much that changes I guess depends on how the current ones are spread by age and vaccination status.

 

[Healdplace]

I agree - I'm not arguing that we're in the same position that we were in January.

But equally 4,000 daily admissions would scupper many other NHS activities, delay cancer care etc etc.

Vaccination is far more effective.

Schools breaking up should help too (hopefully we'll see Scotland slow or dip in a week or two) as it breaks many chains of infection. We should vaccinate the 12-17yos to halt the wave, and to stop September resurgence.

I do agree that if we reach that kind of number it will stress the NHS. Though probably better to do that in mid Summer than mid Winter. Also possibly a factor in getting this variant's wave over with here and now.

And I totally agree on the vaccinations IF they can demonstrate there is no serious risk to children in doing so. The AZ not for young uns strategy has spooked many parents. So they will need convincing.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data

Deary me - if you thought the Wales data was bad.

5 deaths - was 1 last week

2969 cases - was 1129 last week

7.3% positivity - was 3.4% last week

170 in hospital - was 171 yeterday & 133 last week

18 icu ventilators - was 18 yesterday & 15 last week


That is a very scary near tripling in the week.

But hospital numbers not as yet really changing. Though the lag means they unfortunately probably will.

Zoe got this right earlier if you look back an hour or so to my post.

It is indeed 2 or 3 times more than the NW now.

Perhaps we should send extra vaccines there urgently. They are behind on those numbers and it seems to be showing.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

It's simply the current ratio we see: hospitalisations are running at ~4% of cases right now (with a lag).

How much that changes I guess depends on how the current ones are spread by age and vaccination status.

we were at 10k positive tests a day a week ago, 4% would mean hospitalisation would be 400, currently its 220. So its more like 2%, So actually its more like 2000 admissions imo.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Where do we stand on getting Covid more than once? Is it common? Is it as severe the second time around?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Scotland data

Deary me

5 deaths - was 1 last week

2969 cases - was 1129 last week

7.3% positivity - was 3.4% last week

170 in hospital - was 171 yeterday & 133 last week

18 icu ventilators - was 18 yesterday & 15 last week


That is a very scary near tripling in the week.

Zoe got this right earlier if you look back and hour or so to my post.

It is indeed 2 or 3 times ,ore than the NW now.

I wonder if Burnham will mention this ? Sturgeon was very dismissive and unpleasant when she was asked about what he said?

 

[SWP's back]

I thought we all knew that vaccines don't stop cases, just lessen severity and hospitalisations? Am I missing something here?

Yes. They do stop cases also.

 

[M18CTID]

We will never get rid of covid19 , Like Sars and murs it will be here for ever , hopefully it will just mutate until its no longer a big threat.

What's poor Olly got to do with this?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So actually its more like 2000 admissions imo.

Here's cases/20 (so 5%) lagged by 10 days alongside hospitalisations actuals:



From here



I've not looked at the data directly myself, could be that your 2% is more reasonable, but it would still be a problem even then.

Of course, dependent on which people are getting hospitalised, that % could fall.

 

[grunge]

we were at 10k positive tests a day a week ago, 4% would mean hospitalisation would be 400, currently its 220. So its more like 2%, So actually its more like 2000 admissions imo.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

2 weeks ago we were at 7500/7600.
3 weeks at 6k

Unless things have changed with Delta its 2nd week things deteriorate.