Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Full GM details:


Total cases 1541- DOWN 65 on Yesterday - from NW fall of 302. So well below the 50% par of around 151 - which is npt a good day here by recent standards.

Wk to wk UP 200 when the NW rose by 460, So GM is up but by just under the 50% of 230.

Not a disaster but an OK day at best in GM county.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 127 / UP 11 / UP 6

BURY 105/ UP 17 / DOWN 4

MANCHESTER 378 / DOWN 69 / UP 43

OLDHAM 109 / DOWN 13 / UP 16

ROCHDALE 96 / DOWN 20 / UP 17

SALFORD 199 / UP 41 / UP 62

STOCKPORT 101 / DOWN 20 / UP 8

TAMESIDE 108 / DOWN 20 / UP 10

TRAFFORD 96 / DOWN 33 / UP 16

WIGAN 222 / UP 41 / UP 29




Pretty mixed day here and at 96 the biggest 'low' score since last Winter.

Not a good day for Salford or Wigan or Manchester - although the latter fell quite a bit daily and was a bit of an improvement on degrees of badness.


The rest really only up a little which kept GM just about on track.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 595, Rochdale 609, Oldham 635, Bury 636, Stockport 638, Trafford 659, Bolton 735, Salford 970. Wigan 1128, Manchester 2319.



Manchester, Salford and Wigan all rising and Salford closing in on foyr figure weekly numbers to join the other twp.

These three well ahead of the rest.

Oldham, Bury and Stockport separated by 3 cases

Just avoided everyone going over 600 today though probably only delayed by a day.
 
I've been following the numbers in my local council area (SE'ish), a month ago we were 30 cases in 7 days, it's now 130, highest since early March, the numbers are still relatively small though, they were at over 1300 at the peak in early January.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 420 / 344 / UP 76 Testing positive 11.0%

Salford 375 / 336 / UP 39 Testing positive 10.3%

Wigan 343 / 283 / UP 60 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 333 / 332 / UP 1 Testing positive 10.3%

Trafford 277 / 224 / UP 48 Testing positive 7.9%

Rochdale 274 / 230 / UP 44 Testing positive 10.6 %

Oldham 268 / 195 / UP 73 Testing positive 10.6%

Tameside 262 / 199 / UP 63 Testing positive 8.9%

Bolton 255 / 276 / DOWN 21 Testing positive 11.5%

Stockport 217 / 208 / UP 9 Testing positive 8.0%


Manchester way ahead of everyone and over 400 not far off where Bolton was 5 or 6 weeks ago at the height of the arrival of the new variant. Salford not far behind.

Wigan accelerating above Bury which is showing signs of stability and like Stockport only up single figures.

Stockport and Bolton now the two best and oth rose by just 2 today.

Trafford's high numbers remain worse than Stockport and it lost another big chunk of its lead on overall Pop Score.

Stockport now on 8049 and Trafford rose by 6 pop score pointa more than Stockport taking it to 7951 cutting its lead over Stockport below 100 to just 98. It was double that 2 weeks ago.

However, Bolton still has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 453.

But Manchester joined them as the second borough to emter into the 11K club on 11, 037

Rochdale on 10, 587 and Oldham 10, 579 remain locked tight together.

Salford are on 10, 321 and Bury just behind on 10, 274.

So only 4 boroughs now sub 10,000.

Wigan's dire run took it up by 68 - worst on the day to 9951 and sadly look certain to now enter the 10K club tomorrow.

That will leave just Stockport and Trafford well below and Tameside on 8912 close to entering the 9000 club but the 10K is weeks away.
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 75.3% / 55.0 % V 75.2 / 54.6%

BURY 76.7% / 55.5% V 76.5% / 55.4%

MANCHESTER 58.4% / 35.4% V 58.2% / 35.1%

OLDHAM 71.0% / 52.8% V 70.8% / 52.6%

ROCHDALE 72.9% / 51.6% V 72.7% / 51.5%

SALFORD 65.5 % / 43.5% V 65.1% / 43.3%

STOCKPORT 80.5% / 59.5% V 80.4% / 59.3%

TAMESIDE 76.0% / 56.3% V 75.6% / 56.1%

TRAFFORD 77.5% / 56.8% V 77.1% / 56.5%

WIGAN 79.6% / 58.9% V 79.3% / 58.5%



Trafford and Wigan did the most today. Wigan close to joining Stockport on over 80% of locals having had one dose.

Manchester still well behind and not really catching up,
 
Congratulations to Cuba for developing two new vaccines to be exported to Venezuela and Iran.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


Not bothering with the age stats of Scottish cases today, but of the 3000 cases less than 50 are in the over 65 age category. So I'll leave it at that with positive news from Bolton following on from Healdplace's encouraging stats.
Click to expand...

Yep. As concerning as the Scottish figures look in terms of increase in cases in pure numbers, the pattern with this variant seems to be that it rips through, peaks, and then starts to drop in a much shorter period of time than the previous waves. And it's infecting mainly younger people which is resulting in a lower percentage of serious illness and deaths. That's clearly down to the vaccine rollout. Another poster stated that it's Covid's last hurrah in the UK and he/she is probably right. I don't think we'll ever see "Zero Covid" but unless a vaccine resistant variant comes along, we've definitely seen off the worst of this virus in this country and lockdowns are a thing of the past IMO.
 
M18CTID said:
Yep. As concerning as the Scottish figures look in terms of increase in cases in pure numbers, the pattern with this variant seems to be that it rips through, peaks, and then starts to drop in a much shorter period of time than the previous waves. And it's infecting mainly younger people which is resulting in a lower percentage of serious illness and deaths. That's clearly down to the vaccine rollout. Another poster stated that it's Covid's last hurrah in the UK and he/she is probably right. I don't think we'll ever see "Zero Covid" but unless a vaccine resistant variant comes along, we've definitely seen off the worst of this virus in this country and lockdowns are a thing of the past IMO.
Click to expand...
There are 2 factors: escape mutation vs vaccine development. How they interact will determine what happens.

You can follow vaccine development but escape mutation? I reckon some people know but it's not talked about.. We must know by now how optimised the spike protein is to the receptor and what various mutations will do, and how likely they are. And we must also know what mutations it would take to KO the remaining neutralising antibody reactions, and what effect that has on how contagious it is. You can find protein structure from its sequence, and you know your antibody structure. Model the interactions between antibodies and mutated forms of the protein etc. The interactions between antibodies and proteins are electrostatic and van der waals forces. You model them. You know all the parameters. I am sure it's possible.
 
Ric said:
Tidied this up now, but let’s knock the conspiracy theory stuff on the head please. There are plenty of other platforms for you to spread those views, so let’s try and keep this discussion sensible. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Ric. Your mask is slipping. You’re clearly an integral cog in the Deep state machine, suppressing the truth in favour of maintaining an oppressed status quo, all the while making yourself rich off @tolmie's hairdoo updates.
 


Ivermectin data, looking like there is some very good results starting to show. Meta study rather than double blind but this is a peer reviewed paper using data from lots of other trials.

-Probably helps reduce deaths by 62%
-Possibly reduces transmission by 86%

Not had chance to watch the whole thing.
 
Marvin said:
Here's HealdPlace data presented graphically comparing cases rates per capita vs vaccination.

It shows a clear correlation between the case rate and vaccination rate. That is good. It is what you would expect.

View attachment 19995
Click to expand...
Thank you very much. I would not have had a clue how to do that and like alkmost everything else happening it shows the story quite clearly I have been arguing only in words.

Although cases are rising it matters fairly little as the vaccinations are winning and hospitalisations and death are reduced to a smaller and smaller fraction of the past waves as you increase the numbers with some degree of immunity - primarily via vaccination but also through the young people catching it and developing antibodies.

Neither means this is over. As is said repeatedly because it is the big truth right now - until we vaccinate the planet OR seal the UK off from all nations not yet more or less fully vaccinated until they get there (which we never will) the risk remains of a vaccine evading variant spreading that really sets us back. Probably not forever but by many months.

We will defeat that too but at the price of another lock down and tweaking of the vaccines for boosters as we will be doing for some time now anyway in precautionary mode.

But unless and until one of those emerges or we have the stupidity to lay down the welcome mat if it appear elsewhere in the world and not here then as I said yesterday paraphrasing Churchill after the Battle of Britain.

We may be at the beginning of the end if the above does not happen in the coming months and we rake up vaccinations in poorer nations.

Or at the end of the beggining if we do not and allow the opportunity for the virus to regain the lead.

We are 2-1 up with either the final whistle, extra time or penalties looming in the near to mid future.

We should see this out. But do we pull everyone back and defend or go all out for one more goal to make the result safe.

Not an easy option and depends who is manager and their track record in these situations.

The unexpected can always happen. Look at the two goalkeepers scoring critical goals in the final seconds that changed everything over the past month or so.

But as the saying goes in aviation - there are old pilots and there are bold pilots but there are not many old, bold pilots. So the path we tread is not a given right now. We can only do what seems most sensible and hope. But we are on track. No question of that imo.
 
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Healdplace said:
Thank you very much. I would not have had a clue how to do that and like alkmost everything else happening it shows the story quite clearly I have been arguing only in words.

Although cases are rising it matters fairly little as the vaccinations are winning and hospitalisations and death are reduced to a smaller and smaller fraction of the past waves as you increase the numbers with some degree of immunity - primarily via vaccination but also through the young people catching it and developing antibodies.

Neither means this is over. As is said repeatedly because it is the big truth right now - until we vaccinate the planet OR seal the UK off from all nations not yet more or less fully vaccinated until they get there (which we never will) the risk remains of a vaccine evading variant spreading that really sets us back. Probably not forever but by many months.

We will defeat that too but at the price of another lock down and tweaking of the vaccines for boosters as we will be doing for some time now anyway in precautionary mode.

But unless and until one of those emerges or we have the stupidity to lay down the welcome mat if it appear elsewhere in the world and not here then as I said yesterday paraphrasing Churchill after the Battle of Britain.

We may be at the beginning of the end if the above does not happen in the coming months and we rake up vaccinations in poorer nations.

Or at the end of the beggining if we do not and allow the opportunity for the virus to regain the lead.

We are 2-1 up with either the final whistle, extra time or penalties looming in the near to mid future.

We should see this out. But do we pull everyone back and defend or go all out for one more goal to make the result safe.

Not an easy option and depends who is manager and their track record in these situations.

The unexpected can always happen. Look at the two goalkeepers scoring critical goals in the final seconds that changed everything over the past month or so.

But as the saying goes in aviation - there are old pilots and there are bold pilots but there are not many old, bold pilots. So the path we tread is not a given right now. We can only do what seems most sensible and hope. But we are on track. No question of that imo.
Click to expand...
Great post but the problem is we've got a fucking clown instead of a manager, and a team of clowns on the bench with him. Last time we went 1-0 up he substituted the goalkeeper and didn't replace him until we went 2-1 down.
 
By the way did anyone see the feature length Horizon on the BBC this week about the year long race to create the vaccines?

It came over as being surprisingly negative on the AZ vaccine and left you with the final word of it being stopped from being used in one country because it did not work. I expected a coda but there was none.

This seemed very strange as up to the last 10 minutes or so it had charted well the different vaccines across the world and the race to get them out. And the problems and successes.

The numbers we are seeing here seem not to suggest that sense of negativity for AZ. But as a science led programme (well sort of - not always - I was involved in one show many years ago and that was not so much about sciece as pseudoscience) you expect balance.

If any of our scientists in here saw it was I getting the wrong impression on their take on AZ? Mihht have been as I was half awake.
 
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