Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Thank you very much. I would not have had a clue how to do that and like alkmost everything else happening it shows the story quite clearly I have been arguing only in words.

Although cases are rising it matters fairly little as the vaccinations are winning and hospitalisations and death are reduced to a smaller and smaller fraction of the past waves as you increase the numbers with some degree of immunity - primarily via vaccination but also through the young people catching it and developing antibodies.

Neither means this is over. As is said repeatedly because it is the big truth right now - until we vaccinate the planet OR seal the UK off from all nations not yet more or less fully vaccinated until they get there (which we never will) the risk remains of a vaccine evading variant spreading that really sets us back. Probably not forever but by many months.

We will defeat that too but at the price of another lock down and tweaking of the vaccines for boosters as we will be doing for some time now anyway in precautionary mode.

But unless and until one of those emerges or we have the stupidity to lay down the welcome mat if it appear elsewhere in the world and not here then as I said yesterday paraphrasing Churchill after the Battle of Britain.

We may be at the beginning of the end if the above does not happen in the coming months and we rake up vaccinations in poorer nations.

Or at the end of the beggining if we do not and allow the opportunity for the virus to regain the lead.

We are 2-1 up with either the final whistle, extra time or penalties looming in the near to mid future.

We should see this out. But do we pull everyone back and defend or go all out for one more goal to make the result safe.

Not an easy option and depends who is manager and their track record in these situations.

The unexpected can always happen. Look at the two goalkeepers scoring critical goals in the final seconds that changed everything over the past month or so.

But as the saying goes in aviation - there are old pilots and there are bold pilots but there are not many old, bold pilots. So the path we tread is not a given right now. We can only do what seems most sensible and hope. But we are on track. No question of that imo.
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I wonder if the Government has modelled the risk of a more serious vaccine-beating mutation emerging. This must be the most crucial question every country faces at the moment. I don't know if it is even possible to predict this because presumably mutations are random. But someone, somewhere, must have an idea of the potential threat.
 
Keith Moncrieff said:
Looks like they’re messing around with vaccinations
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From the article:

So far, just over 3% of the adult population has been fully vaccinated and about 25% of Australians have received a first dose

That's a very low figure and I've no idea if how much of it is down to low take-up or slow rollout but there was a suggestion on here that being a country that has had such low numbers of Covid cases compared to other nations, some may be lured into a false sense of security and think that they don't need the vaccine. This could be a major problem for Australia going forward because while a cluster of several dozen cases can be brought under control, it only needs one asymptomatic carrier infected with the Delta variant being in a crowded place for it to become a super-spreader event. And given that so few Australians have had Covid and they're miles behind many other countries on vaccinations, there's no herd immunity for the virus to come up against.
 
Latest data on Covid antibody positivity measured from healthy blood donors in England by age ranges.

Levels achieved by both vaccination / or catching Covid I presume.

Numbers still rising weekly.

AGE // % ANTIBODYS THIS WEEK - UP FROM SEVEN DAYS BEFORE


30 - 39 // 68% (up from 57.5%)

40 - 49 // 93.3% (up from 90%)

50- 59 // 98.5% (up from 98.3%)

60 - 69 // 98.6% (up from 98.4%)

70 - 84 // 98.8% (up from 98.3%)

Looks more good news. But I will let the experts comment.
 
grunge said:


Ivermectin data, looking like there is some very good results starting to show. Meta study rather than double blind but this is a peer reviewed paper using data from lots of other trials.

-Probably helps reduce deaths by 62%
-Possibly reduces transmission by 86%

Not had chance to watch the whole thing.
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He's been banging on about the benefits of Ivermectin for months
 
Really good thread (and linked reports) from PHE scientist.



Around half of over 50s hospitalisations and deaths are in the fully vaccinated.

This does *not* mean vaccines aren't effective; most of this population is now fully vaccinated, so your personal risk is much lower if vaccinated.

But it does illustrate that many, even most, of those worst affected in this wave are not vaccine refusing idiots, but rather innocent victims of a deadly disease.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Really good thread (and linked reports) from PHE scientist.



Around half of over 50s hospitalisations and deaths are in the fully vaccinated.

This does *not* mean vaccines aren't effective; most of this population is now fully vaccinated, so your personal risk is much lower if vaccinated.

But it does illustrate that many, even most, of those worst affected in this wave are not vaccine refusing idiots, but rather innocent victims of a deadly disease.
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If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
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That data on the 50 deaths in double vaccinated people aged over 50 - nearly half of all deaths - will be wildly misused as it will forget one key thing,

The 50 come from a tiny percentage of all the cases testing positive for Delta now. Indeed they are in the hundreds versus the tens of thousands of younger people catching it.

So yes that creates a much higher death rate in the over 50s - as in those almost certainly with co morbidities that have always stacked the decks against older ages - BUT it also misses the fact that the actual number would have been far far more had the vaccines not worked. Certainly 500 not 50. Quite possibly even more.

You can make it say look half of those who died were double vaccinated or the vaccine saved 90% of those who would have died.

And which you argue will be down to what you want the numbers to prove.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
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Agree re. disproportionate effect on unvaxxed.

The 98% figure, whilst very encouraging, is almost certainly not representative of the whole population. It's taken from blood donors, who are probably far more likely to be vaccinated than the general populace. That's because they're self selecting people who are concerned about public health.
 
Manc in London said:
They are indeed but Covid will likely make it's way into their country in a significant way some time in the future. I guess it depends on how many are vaccinated by the time they open their borders. I was reading an article the other day about the Australian government being concerned that take up of the vaccine may not be as high as they want as many have not been ill themselves or witnessed it's impact on their families and communities. Maybe this could happen in other countries such as NZ.
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I think the Kiwis will get more Covid but they responded a lot better than most in the first wave and do have demographic advantages (discussed on here in the past).
 
Weekly ONS data on Covid prevalence numbers over past week

Scotland unsurprisingly worst at one in 220 - three times last weeks 1 in 600

England next at one in 440 but only up from 1 in 520 so nothing like as steep a rise.

N Ireland has improved at one in 720 from 1 in 610

And Wales has doubled at one in 830 from last week's 1 in 1500

No real surprises given the daily cases being reported but interesting that the nations are at different stages.
 
Wales data:

1 death - was 0 last week

336 cases - was 163 last week

2.0% positivity - was 1.2% last week

42 patients - down 2 - was 44 last week

1 ventilated - down 2 - was 1 last week
 
Mark Drakeford briefing on Wales data. No changes to restrictions for next three weeks.

The Delta variant wave is being driven by children and young people.

The peak in hospitalisation numbers and deaths in Wales not expected until August if previous wave patterns folllowed.

But - he adds - Wales best in UK vaccination numbers might make a difference as the cases in Wales are following the pattern seen in England being driven by the unvaccinated younger age groups.

According to Swansea University who are modelling the wave for Wales cases expected to peak in Wales in late July - a couple of weeks after the most impacted areas in England and Scotland which are ahead of the curve elsewhwere.

102,000 cases of Delta now tracked in England and it is between 40 and 80% more infective.

About 1100 in Wales. Up from 500 last Friday.

97% of new cases in the hot spot of North Wales are now Delta.

15 people have been admitted to hospital in Wales with Delta as of now.

Whilst 'fortunately' numbers are low Drakeford adds 'we should be prepared to see them rise.'

The Wales positivity rate overall was 2.7% yesterday but is 7.2% in Flintshire the worst effected of the 4 North Wales coast regions where numbers are highest,
 
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I would add it is not a coincidence that both the South West coastal resorts and the North Wales ones have seen a big rise in cases and Dalta arriving after a period of hot sunny weather with the message being to holiday at home in the UK this Summer.
 
UK air passengers 2019: 142m
New Zealand: 18m

And that will actually be weighted in favour if New Zealand because you don't take ferries or the cross channel tunnel to New Zealand. Plus a huge proportion of its traffic will be with Australia who are virus-free (largely).
 
So in summary Matt Hancock has wasted tax payers money, left care homes exposed and has now been caught red handed breaking HIS own fucking covid rules.
Surely he must now resign?, really hope this idiot gets his comeuppance.
 
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