Johnny Mars Bar
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Anyone else really weirded out by how perfectly spherical Javid's head is?
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Healdplace
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AZ study shows that a third dose given 6 months on from second one does boost protection further.
Boosts protection against all current variants including Delta.
But Oxford study adds it is not clear immunity wanes enough after 6 months that a third dose this winter is needed. And that it would be morally wrong to prioritise that over AZ being gven to vaccinate the parts of the world still needing first and second doses and so in more need than the UK.
Caveat - small numbers of people in the test almost self evidently. As we only started vaccinating anywhere 6 months ago so real world data on this is still some way from being clear outside the early tests.
Boosts protection against all current variants including Delta.
But Oxford study adds it is not clear immunity wanes enough after 6 months that a third dose this winter is needed. And that it would be morally wrong to prioritise that over AZ being gven to vaccinate the parts of the world still needing first and second doses and so in more need than the UK.
Caveat - small numbers of people in the test almost self evidently. As we only started vaccinating anywhere 6 months ago so real world data on this is still some way from being clear outside the early tests.
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Rascal
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if you are aged 18-34 manchester uni are researching covid 19 vaccine equity
have your say by doing the survey, only takes a few minutes
cheers
roubaixtuesday
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I think we should allow their vaccination. Need to stop mass school outbreaks.
The Light Was Yellow Sir
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We don’t have mass school outbreaks, we have mass school isolations (9000 positive cases, 250000 isolating), so we just need to stop counting positive tests as cases.
roubaixtuesday
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(1) We do
In the most recent four week period there were 97 confirmed covid-19 outbreaks in primary and secondary schools
Covid-19: Delta variant is now UK’s most dominant strain and spreading through schools
The delta covid-19 variant (B.1.617.2), which was first detected in India, has overtaken the alpha variant, better known as the UK or Kent variant (B.1.1.7), to make it the most dominant strain circulating in the UK, Public Health England has said. This is a concern because there is evidence...
and
(2) Without the isolating, we would likely have many more and worse.
Healdplace
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Scotland data
YIKES!
O deaths - was 0 last week (Monday data often is recall)
3285 cases - new record high in the pandemic - was 1250 last week
12.6% positivity - was 7.2% last week - big jumps here
202 patients - up 6 on yesterday - was 158 last week
20 ventilated icu - up 3 on yesterday - was 14 last week
These numbers are still rising and still not clear what is caused by backlog as that data issue in labs they have been reporting for days is still being 'investigated' so presumably ongoing.
IF this were caused by the backlog then it would mitigate things somewhat.
YIKES!
O deaths - was 0 last week (Monday data often is recall)
3285 cases - new record high in the pandemic - was 1250 last week
12.6% positivity - was 7.2% last week - big jumps here
202 patients - up 6 on yesterday - was 158 last week
20 ventilated icu - up 3 on yesterday - was 14 last week
These numbers are still rising and still not clear what is caused by backlog as that data issue in labs they have been reporting for days is still being 'investigated' so presumably ongoing.
IF this were caused by the backlog then it would mitigate things somewhat.
Gaylord du Bois
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My daughters place still getting false positives. It's there 7th to date. The previous ones, 3 both times, had them down as outbreaks.
The person testing positive this time is in their 90s. It's their second positive test this year. Been double jabbed hardly leaves their room and has no visitors!
Definitely some cross contamination happening somewhere.
The person testing positive this time is in their 90s. It's their second positive test this year. Been double jabbed hardly leaves their room and has no visitors!
Definitely some cross contamination happening somewhere.
The Light Was Yellow Sir
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A Covid outbreak is defined as 2 cases in the same environment in the space of 14 days. 97 outbreaks could therefore equate to less than 200 confirmed cases. I cannot see point 2 in the article, although that’s likely reader error on my part….(1) We do
In the most recent four week period there were 97 confirmed covid-19 outbreaks in primary and secondary schools
Covid-19: Delta variant is now UK’s most dominant strain and spreading through schools
The delta covid-19 variant (B.1.617.2), which was first detected in India, has overtaken the alpha variant, better known as the UK or Kent variant (B.1.1.7), to make it the most dominant strain circulating in the UK, Public Health England has said. This is a concern because there is evidence...www.bmj.com
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(2) Without the isolating, we would likely have many more and worse.
roubaixtuesday
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Nah, that was 'cos it's nothing more than my own opinionated ravings. Which is why I put the reference under point (1), not point 2.
Opinionated ravings nothwithstanding, I very much look forward for your rationale for why isolating wouldn't mitigate further spread.
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER WEEKEND
More details to come:
SATURDAY 18 with 10 from the North West - last Saturday was 9 with 7. wk before 12 with 2
SUNDAY 1 with 0 from NW - last Sunday was 2 with 0, wk before, wk befre 2 with 1 NW
MONDAY 2 with 2 from NW - last week 0 with 0, wk before 2 with 1 NW
More details to come:
SATURDAY 18 with 10 from the North West - last Saturday was 9 with 7. wk before 12 with 2
SUNDAY 1 with 0 from NW - last Sunday was 2 with 0, wk before, wk befre 2 with 1 NW
MONDAY 2 with 2 from NW - last week 0 with 0, wk before 2 with 1 NW
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS SATURDAY
The 18 deaths are a little worrying as 5 of them were in the previous 24 hours on 25 June. 2 from NW, two from Midlands and 1 from London
This is the highest number for the past 24 hours since 22 April.
Also 24 June added 10 - taking the 2 day total to 12. - the first double figure add on for any day since 25 April. Seven of those were from the NW,1 from Yorkshire, I Midlands and 1 London.
The other NW death was the only one on 23 June. So All 10 were in the 72 hours up to Saturday.
The other 2 deaths wer earlier in the year so probably outside the range to be counted. These were both in the South East in February and April.
1 death was aged 20 - 39, 2 deaths aged 40 - 59, 6 aged 60 - 79 and 9 aged 80 PLUS
The NW deaths were 2 in Manchester and 1 each in East Lancashire, Lancashire. Pennine Acute, Salford, St Helens, Stockport and Wigan.
The 18 deaths are a little worrying as 5 of them were in the previous 24 hours on 25 June. 2 from NW, two from Midlands and 1 from London
This is the highest number for the past 24 hours since 22 April.
Also 24 June added 10 - taking the 2 day total to 12. - the first double figure add on for any day since 25 April. Seven of those were from the NW,1 from Yorkshire, I Midlands and 1 London.
The other NW death was the only one on 23 June. So All 10 were in the 72 hours up to Saturday.
The other 2 deaths wer earlier in the year so probably outside the range to be counted. These were both in the South East in February and April.
1 death was aged 20 - 39, 2 deaths aged 40 - 59, 6 aged 60 - 79 and 9 aged 80 PLUS
The NW deaths were 2 in Manchester and 1 each in East Lancashire, Lancashire. Pennine Acute, Salford, St Helens, Stockport and Wigan.
roubaixtuesday
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No idea what's driving it (supply, demand, logistics...?) but our vaccination rate seems to be falling right now.
Continental Europe seems to be quite a bit ahead, and even India looks set to overtake us per capita.
Hopefully we can turn it around for a final push.
Continental Europe seems to be quite a bit ahead, and even India looks set to overtake us per capita.
Hopefully we can turn it around for a final push.
Gremlin
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Might be a combination of running out of people to give the AZ jab to (as it is only used in the over 40s and most are double vaccinated now) and supply constraint on the Pfizer/Moderna jabs.
Gray
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Perhaps it is the hoards returning from their London jaunt that have caused the increase. Nicola should have forbid them from going, thank god she told us Mancs to stay away from her homeland.
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS SUNDAY
The single death was from 25 June and in Birmingham. They were aged 80 +
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS MONDAY
The two deaths today were both in the North West, one on Friday and the other on Saturday.
One was aged 40 - 59, the other ages 60 - 79.
One was in Manchester Royal and the other in Salford Royal.
Although the really big numbers were on Saturday and the two following days were encouraging - so overall not a really worrying total - it is hard to be sure as weekend registering of deaths is always low especially in the North West,
As we stand that new high of 12 on 24 June is still at 12 after another 2 days. But being weekend days we will have to see what its 5 day total is tomorrow when numbers will be more normal than Mondays are.
Similarly the 5 we started out with on 25 June are still only at 7 after 3 days and the same caveat here.
I think these numbers are obviously slowly rising and are, of course, from weeks ago when they likely caught Covid in the EARLY days of the rise then only in the North West.
The regional distribution of the deaths versus the cases show these deaths are not from people who caught it in the last week or two.
It remains to be seen how high the numbers will go as we see the impact of the now double numbers in the NW AND the rising numbers in all other regions.
We are a few weeks away from seeing the degree of that consequence only that it will be a bigger number than now.
I think it is safe to predict the vaccines will assure it is not hundreds of daily deaths at the peak of this wave.
But right now I am not sure it will stay under three figures at its peak.
Let us hope so as this will factor in to how many people will be in hospital to trigger these deaths and taking up icu beds and that is really the scenario we need to stay as low as possible in order to safely open up.
Still optimistic. But it is not assured how high we will go. Just that in coming weeks we will go higher even given how much the vaccines are undeniably helping in a big way.
This virus will always find victims sadly.
The single death was from 25 June and in Birmingham. They were aged 80 +
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS MONDAY
The two deaths today were both in the North West, one on Friday and the other on Saturday.
One was aged 40 - 59, the other ages 60 - 79.
One was in Manchester Royal and the other in Salford Royal.
Although the really big numbers were on Saturday and the two following days were encouraging - so overall not a really worrying total - it is hard to be sure as weekend registering of deaths is always low especially in the North West,
As we stand that new high of 12 on 24 June is still at 12 after another 2 days. But being weekend days we will have to see what its 5 day total is tomorrow when numbers will be more normal than Mondays are.
Similarly the 5 we started out with on 25 June are still only at 7 after 3 days and the same caveat here.
I think these numbers are obviously slowly rising and are, of course, from weeks ago when they likely caught Covid in the EARLY days of the rise then only in the North West.
The regional distribution of the deaths versus the cases show these deaths are not from people who caught it in the last week or two.
It remains to be seen how high the numbers will go as we see the impact of the now double numbers in the NW AND the rising numbers in all other regions.
We are a few weeks away from seeing the degree of that consequence only that it will be a bigger number than now.
I think it is safe to predict the vaccines will assure it is not hundreds of daily deaths at the peak of this wave.
But right now I am not sure it will stay under three figures at its peak.
Let us hope so as this will factor in to how many people will be in hospital to trigger these deaths and taking up icu beds and that is really the scenario we need to stay as low as possible in order to safely open up.
Still optimistic. But it is not assured how high we will go. Just that in coming weeks we will go higher even given how much the vaccines are undeniably helping in a big way.
This virus will always find victims sadly.
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ayrshire_blue
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Scotlands 3285 cases
67 people aged over 65
565 people aged 45-64
1153 people aged 25-44
601 aged 20-24
422 aged 15-19
459 aged 0-14
*******************
No deaths announced due to Sunday data
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17k first doses
12k second doses
Case rates will soon catch up with vaccinations at this rate such is the massive increase in one and deceleration in the other. Sadly the wrong way round.
Also not clear if these cases are catch up cases but sadly I believe from the way it's worded that this total number of cases are actually minus some numbers so the catch up is still to come, will take us to an outrageous amount of cases if not already there. Other might people might perceive the wording differently re catch ups but that's how I read it anyway.
67 people aged over 65
565 people aged 45-64
1153 people aged 25-44
601 aged 20-24
422 aged 15-19
459 aged 0-14
*******************
No deaths announced due to Sunday data
*******************
17k first doses
12k second doses
Case rates will soon catch up with vaccinations at this rate such is the massive increase in one and deceleration in the other. Sadly the wrong way round.
Also not clear if these cases are catch up cases but sadly I believe from the way it's worded that this total number of cases are actually minus some numbers so the catch up is still to come, will take us to an outrageous amount of cases if not already there. Other might people might perceive the wording differently re catch ups but that's how I read it anyway.
Healdplace
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Northern Ireland data
0 deaths - was 0 last week
211 cases - was 133 last week
11.1% positivity - was 7.3% last week
1600 rolling 7 day cases total - was 1064 last week
4 care home outbreaks - was 3 last week
16 patients - was 16 last week
2 ventilated - was 0 last week
As you see N Ireland is following the pattern in the rest of the UK now. Rsing cases, Fast rising positivity as the Delta variant hits and - most worrying Care Home Outbreaks starrting to rise again from 2 two weeks ago to 3 last week and now 4.
And most worrying of all the ventulators that have proudly stood at zero for a few weeks now are on the rise.
I suspect caused by the care home outbreaks as that has doubled the number of over 80s testing positive over the weekend. All be it from a single figure base.
Not good news obviously. But as with everywhere whilst we have a rising epiemic it is could be a lot worse than it is in the numbers that matter. And would be without the vaccination progress,
0 deaths - was 0 last week
211 cases - was 133 last week
11.1% positivity - was 7.3% last week
1600 rolling 7 day cases total - was 1064 last week
4 care home outbreaks - was 3 last week
16 patients - was 16 last week
2 ventilated - was 0 last week
As you see N Ireland is following the pattern in the rest of the UK now. Rsing cases, Fast rising positivity as the Delta variant hits and - most worrying Care Home Outbreaks starrting to rise again from 2 two weeks ago to 3 last week and now 4.
And most worrying of all the ventulators that have proudly stood at zero for a few weeks now are on the rise.
I suspect caused by the care home outbreaks as that has doubled the number of over 80s testing positive over the weekend. All be it from a single figure base.
Not good news obviously. But as with everywhere whilst we have a rising epiemic it is could be a lot worse than it is in the numbers that matter. And would be without the vaccination progress,
Healdplace
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Northern Ireland weekly cases by age range:
0 - 19 (606) 38.0%
20 - 39 ( 599) 37.5%
40 - 59 ( 318) 19.9%
60 - 79 ( 65) 4.1%
80 PLUS (9) 0.5%
You can see what I meant above - after weeks of numbers showing a RISING percentage of under 40s - it got over 80% at one point - these are still the highest - especially school age as you see - but the % has slowly inched down to 75% - still by far the most.
The middle aged group (40 - 59) first inched up as I suspect more got double jabbed and returned to less shielding and inevitably some caught it as we knew they would even if vaccinated. That is now almost 20%
And the bigger concern is the over 60s as these have risen notably from under 3% to now 4.6%
The difference remains huge and crucial to why we will still get out of this with fewer deaths and hispitalisations.
But care homes rear their heads again as the issue - because if cases start rising there as hints suggest so in N Ireland - we need to find the reason. Is it unvaccinated staff or visitors - as we assume all residents should be jabbed or offered jabs - whatever we need to keep a close watch on these vulnerable kocations to identify what is happening.
Of course to add one BIG caveat I mentioned yesterday on statistics.
We are talkingabout 9 over 80s in all of Northern Ireland testing positive in the past week.
You increase that by 2 to 11 and it seems a huge rise perentage wise.
So sensible not to get too worried over watching percetages inch up. Low numbers can exaggerate the significance.
The trend not the actual numbers will be more telling.
0 - 19 (606) 38.0%
20 - 39 ( 599) 37.5%
40 - 59 ( 318) 19.9%
60 - 79 ( 65) 4.1%
80 PLUS (9) 0.5%
You can see what I meant above - after weeks of numbers showing a RISING percentage of under 40s - it got over 80% at one point - these are still the highest - especially school age as you see - but the % has slowly inched down to 75% - still by far the most.
The middle aged group (40 - 59) first inched up as I suspect more got double jabbed and returned to less shielding and inevitably some caught it as we knew they would even if vaccinated. That is now almost 20%
And the bigger concern is the over 60s as these have risen notably from under 3% to now 4.6%
The difference remains huge and crucial to why we will still get out of this with fewer deaths and hispitalisations.
But care homes rear their heads again as the issue - because if cases start rising there as hints suggest so in N Ireland - we need to find the reason. Is it unvaccinated staff or visitors - as we assume all residents should be jabbed or offered jabs - whatever we need to keep a close watch on these vulnerable kocations to identify what is happening.
Of course to add one BIG caveat I mentioned yesterday on statistics.
We are talkingabout 9 over 80s in all of Northern Ireland testing positive in the past week.
You increase that by 2 to 11 and it seems a huge rise perentage wise.
So sensible not to get too worried over watching percetages inch up. Low numbers can exaggerate the significance.
The trend not the actual numbers will be more telling.
Healdplace
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So today there were 2 deaths with out of hospital England to add. Last week it was 2 and became 6.
Cases from the three nations today are a new high of 4166.
Last week it was 1867 - so more than doubled wk to wk.
Last week England added 8766 to that 1867 making a total of 10, 633.
We might see above 20,000 today if England double - especially if that England data problem yesterday results in add ons today.
Fingers crossed but Zoe has been over 20 K now for several days and I suspect they are just a few days ahead of the curve.
Cases from the three nations today are a new high of 4166.
Last week it was 1867 - so more than doubled wk to wk.
Last week England added 8766 to that 1867 making a total of 10, 633.
We might see above 20,000 today if England double - especially if that England data problem yesterday results in add ons today.
Fingers crossed but Zoe has been over 20 K now for several days and I suspect they are just a few days ahead of the curve.
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