Coronavirus (2021) thread

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GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 76.2% / 57.4% V 76.1 / 56.9%

BURY 77.7% / 57.6% V 77.7% / 57.4%

MANCHESTER 60.4% / 37.5% V 60.2% / 37.0%

OLDHAM 72.1% / 54.2% V 72.0% / 53.8%

ROCHDALE 73.8% / 53.6% V 73.8% / 53.5%

SALFORD 67.4 % / 44.8% V 67.2% / 44.6%

STOCKPORT 82.0% / 61.3% V 81.9% / 61.1%

TAMESIDE 77.3% / 58.4% V 77.2% / 57.7%

TRAFFORD 79.7% / 58.8% V 79.3% / 58.4%

WIGAN 81.1% / 60.8% V 81.1% / 60.5%





Trafford and Tameside up by 0.8% the best and Rochdale miles behind on just 0,1%
 
Manchester33 said:
By the end of July I'd be utterly shocked if our cases aren't reducing quickly.
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I hope you're right. But with cases rising exponentially now, doubling every ~10 days, no signs of a slowdown, and further restrictions promised to be lifted, it seems pretty unlikely to me. I'd give it less than 50:50 that it's peaked by then given where we are today. But all is very uncertain.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


I don't know if anyone here follows Andrew Lilico on twitter or other platforms, he works for the daily telegraph which isn't usually my cup of tea but he has his say on Covid, restrictions, modelling all of which I see as balanced and fair.

Which is why I've linked to this thread.

I think his opinion here will be shared by many throughout the country, but may be seen as controversial. He's basically suggesting that if by opening up fully as we intend, and the NHS gets as busy or even busier than January but crucially *still able to cope* then it's a price worth paying to go ahead with the open up and get this over with in the summer.

Probably akin to Boris's original "like ripping off a plaster" comment back in March of 2020, but this being now and not then.

Is he right? I can go along with what he's suggesting and his reasoning behind it.

He's since followed it up with a comment saying that it's better to have an end with horror, than a horror without end.
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I could take most of the argument until the last sentence when Lilico comes out with some shite about a “horror without end”. It’s a good job we don’t have any wars when having to wear a mask in Tesco’s is described as a never ending horror. What a snowflake.
 
Del_Bosque said:
Yea I pretty much agree with him, follow him on twitter myself nice to get a balanced view with a few others on there.

End of the day the NHS exists to serve the population of the UK, not the other way around.

And I say that as someone who's used it plenty of times and it's saved my life.

The first doses of the initial vac roll out will be nigh on complete in 2 weeks, if we can't unlock then in the middle of summer when can we.
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The NHS is there for the whole population at the point of need. That’s to provide the range of Heakth services and not just be a dustbin for Covid.

I’m hoping we are good shape to open up the range of industry and society from the 19th July but this Lilico geezer hasn’t added anything new IMHO.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


I don't know if anyone here follows Andrew Lilico on twitter or other platforms, he works for the daily telegraph which isn't usually my cup of tea but he has his say on Covid, restrictions, modelling all of which I see as balanced and fair.

Which is why I've linked to this thread.

I think his opinion here will be shared by many throughout the country, but may be seen as controversial. He's basically suggesting that if by opening up fully as we intend, and the NHS gets as busy or even busier than January but crucially *still able to cope* then it's a price worth paying to go ahead with the open up and get this over with in the summer.

Probably akin to Boris's original "like ripping off a plaster" comment back in March of 2020, but this being now and not then.

Is he right? I can go along with what he's suggesting and his reasoning behind it.

He's since followed it up with a comment saying that it's better to have an end with horror, than a horror without end.
Click to expand...

It ends when we get a variant-specific booster vaccine. If we don't then the global delta wave will spawn new strains that will undermine our immunity, and it will go on.

For me, debates about lockdown are now over for the UK because vaccination rates have slowed so much. There's no point buying time if you have no weapon to use.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I hope you're right. But with cases rising exponentially now, doubling every ~10 days, no signs of a slowdown, and further restrictions promised to be lifted, it seems pretty unlikely to me. I'd give it less than 50:50 that it's peaked by then given where we are today. But all is very uncertain.
Click to expand...
Well, we know that over 30% of cases are in children now. With schools set to break up for summer that spread should reduce. There will also be fewer tests taken (kids take them 2x weekly now) so more asymptomatic cases will go unaccounted - not that that's a good thing, but may reduce numbers. As Ayrshire Blue said, it will be good to see what happens in Scotland as they're already broken up for summer.

Obviously, this could be offset by nightclubs, bars and restaurants lifting restrictions, but a lot of people in the lower age brackets are getting vaccinated now, so by the 19th, we'll have better immunity than today. I don't think you can compare either to schools as well. People will still only really go on nights out on Fri/Sat, numbers throughout the rest of the week will be similar to what they are today. I don't think that's comparable to schools with 1k+ children attending for 6 hours 5 days per week. We'll also see more people getting their second jab which will hugely reduce the number of people going to hospital.

Obviously, all of this is complete guesswork on my part. It's not scientific, it's just my view.

The only thing I am certain of though, is that the vaccines have worked, and 100k cases per day wouldn't be anything like as scary as it would have been last year.
 
Manchester33 said:
Well, we know that over 30% of cases are in children now. With schools set to break up for summer that spread should reduce. There will also be fewer tests taken (kids take them 2x weekly now) so more asymptomatic cases will go unaccounted - not that that's a good thing, but may reduce numbers. As Ayrshire Blue said, it will be good to see what happens in Scotland as they're already broken up for summer.

Obviously, this could be offset by nightclubs, bars and restaurants lifting restrictions, but a lot of people in the lower age brackets are getting vaccinated now, so by the 19th, we'll have better immunity than today. I don't think you can compare either to schools as well. People will still only really go on nights out on Fri/Sat, numbers throughout the rest of the week will be similar to what they are today. I don't think that's comparable to schools with 1k+ children attending for 6 hours 5 days per week. We'll also see more people getting their second jab which will hugely reduce the number of people going to hospital.

Obviously, all of this is complete guesswork on my part. It's not scientific, it's just my view.

The only thing I am certain of though, is that the vaccines have worked, and 100k cases per day wouldn't be anything like as scary as it would have been last year.
Click to expand...
We need to know at what point we will reach herd immunity (at least for the Delta variant). With so many being vaccinated (or infected) we must be approaching that situation. The experts must have modelled it.
Presumably they don't want to publicise this information because last time the concept of "herd immunity" went down like a lead balloon but this country is in a different (better) place now. Sadly that's not true for the rest of the world.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
We need to know at what point we will reach herd immunity (at least for the Delta variant). With so many being vaccinated (or infected) we must be approaching that situation. The experts must have modelled it.
Presumably they don't want to publicise this information because last time the concept of "herd immunity" went down like a lead balloon but this country is in a different (better) place now. Sadly that's not true for the rest of the world.
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Well, over 80% of the adult population has antibodies now. So that's a great start.

I think, in terms of full immunity (or good immunity as it will never be perfect) we're probably around 40-50% of the total population (being very conservative). I remember last year, the experts were saying around 60% immunity would be enough to break the chain and really slow down COVID, whereas it would fail to continue spreading when it reached 80%.

As we aren't vaccinating kids yet (something which I'm still unsure is a good idea), I don't see how we'll get to that 80% figure anytime soon. Apparently 40%+ of school children have antibodies today, so 2 in 5.

(worth mentioning again that these are all figures I've heard on the radio or seen on TV - I haven't fact-checked any of it and there's potential it could all be bollocks).
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
We need to know at what point we will reach herd immunity (at least for the Delta variant). With so many being vaccinated (or infected) we must be approaching that situation. The experts must have modelled it.
Presumably they don't want to publicise this information because last time the concept of "herd immunity" went down like a lead balloon but this country is in a different (better) place now. Sadly that's not true for the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

The experts modelling has been out for some time. Many posters on here don't like the results.

Anyway, it's all in here.

Enjoy!

www.gov.uk

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 3 June 2021

Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
Interesting thread on the rate of hospitalisations, which it's very encouraging to see have dropped substantially over the past few weeks from ~4% to ~1.5% of cases.

This modeller thinks that's about the floor. I've no idea 'cos I haven't a clue what's driving it.

Regardless, at current rates, we'll be up near 100,000 daily cases by July 19th relaxation, so any good news needs to be welcomed.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
Interesting thread on the rate of hospitalisations, which it's very encouraging to see have dropped substantially over the past few weeks from ~4% to ~1.5% of cases.

This modeller thinks that's about the floor. I've no idea 'cos I haven't a clue what's driving it.

Regardless, at current rates, we'll be up near 100,000 daily cases nothing new by July 19th relaxation, so any good news needs to be welcomed.

Click to expand...


I created a version of that chart few days back so nothing new, in fact I had a better chart as mine was lagged 10 day hospitalisation rates. Probably a few people on here don't believe the stats I produce but they are just morons. Like I said we should have opened up on 21st June all the maths said nothing bad was going to happen and guess what it hasn't. All the SAGE model look really poorly fitted and overpredicted by a mile, questions need to be asked why. So all this delay has done is cost the tax pay £30 billion quid. Shocking decision
 
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