Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Marvin said:
The fear with omicron is that the mutations in the spike protein will lead to vaccine evasion (and increased transmission).

What if the Chinese CoronaVac vaccine remains effective? It is a whole virus inactivated vaccine and should be less effected by changes in the spike protein.

Its rgearded as a very effective vaccine. For example, in Chile 75% of their vaccinations have been completed with CoronaVac. I am wondering how this performs against Omicron.

In the media they talk about vaccine evasion due to spike mutation but they forget that there are whole virus vaccines too. The South Africans must have thought about this option. So must the manufacturers of Coronavac. The UK and Europe have their own whole virus inactivated vaccines (Valneva) but I don't think it was as effective in trials.

You would think there would be some discussion about this, and some questions asked. But no.
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Isn't it proven that Omicron has some evasion of natural previous infection immunity which would suggest inactivated vaccine will have issues?
 
grunge said:
Isn't it proven that Omicron has some evasion of natural previous infection immunity which would suggest inactivated vaccine will have issues?
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Not necessarily, we still need to view this in the context of what is considered evasion, is that not getting COVID at all or is it just having mild symptoms?

If you catch this variant and only have mild symptoms then did the vaccine work? Arguably the answer to that is yes however certainly from a vaccine efficacy reporting point of view the vaccine has failed.

The only thing we're really interested in is serious disease and hospitalisations. Anecdotal evidence so far shows that Omicron does not cause serious disease in vaccinated people.

As with all previous strains of COVID though it has the real potential to become an even greater threat to the unvaccinated, and that potentially may include the previously infected too but it's far too early.
 
New data shows GSK-vir antibody treatment works against all omicron mutations..
 
grunge said:
Isn't it proven that Omicron has some evasion of natural previous infection immunity which would suggest inactivated vaccine will have issues?
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An inactivated vaccine should create antibodies over a whole genome rather than a small subset. There's an argument to suggest that the spike gene would not be well conserved (contrary to what was first suggested).
 
Marvin said:
An inactivated vaccine should create antibodies over a whole genome rather than a small subset. There's an argument to suggest that the spike gene would not be well conserved (contrary to what was first suggested).
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Yes, It would produce the same antibodies as natural infection, Which is the point I was making :) Omicron is proven ( granted we still need a lot more info ) to be have some evasion over previous natural infection which would mean it would have the same evasion over any inactivated virus vaccine.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Omicron has 'substantial' ability to evade immunity from previous coronavirus infection

Researchers at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) warn their finding has important public health implications.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
New data on UK spread. Bad news I'm afraid.

Looking increasingly likely the rate of increase here is similar to South Africa.

On Saturday, omicron was 2% of all UK cases ie ~1000, and doubling every 3 days. So likely ~2,000 today.



The data is apparently from UKHSA, but only published weekly, so this is an unpublished preview from someone who looks to be a very reputable source.

Data is from SGTF (spike gene target failure) from standard pcr tests. PCR tests for three targets in the covid genome and reports positive if any two are found. The omicron spike gene is mutated at the target sequence, so you only ever get two. So looking at the number of SGTF PCR tests gives a good proxy for omicron without doing the full sequencing, and is probably the best way to monitor initial spread.

The variant looks to be escaping immunity from infection, but no evidence it's causing more severe disease in the vaccinated, thankfully, and good reasons to believe vaccinating still effective vs severe disease.

Please, get your jab booked TODAY if you're eligible for first, second or booster.
 
inbetween said:
Not necessarily, we still need to view this in the context of what is considered evasion, is that not getting COVID at all or is it just having mild symptoms?

If you catch this variant and only have mild symptoms then did the vaccine work? Arguably the answer to that is yes however certainly from a vaccine efficacy reporting point of view the vaccine has failed.

The only thing we're really interested in is serious disease and hospitalisations. Anecdotal evidence so far shows that Omicron does not cause serious disease in vaccinated people.

As with all previous strains of COVID though it has the real potential to become an even greater threat to the unvaccinated, and that potentially may include the previously infected too but it's far too early.
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Agreed, We need a ton more data for it and that will arrive soon enough. Its certainly proven though to evade immunity in respect to infection and transmission.

This week will be key for information from SA if the standard week delay from infection to hospitalisation holds out we'll see a large spike in hospitalisations this week to match the wave of infections. That being said, SA has natural data biases due to average age being so low but we should still get a good idea this week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
New data on UK spread. Bad news I'm afraid.

Looking increasingly likely the rate of increase here is similar to South Africa.

On Saturday, omicron was 2% of all UK cases ie ~1000, and doubling every 3 days. So likely ~2,000 today.



The data is apparently from UKHSA, but only published weekly, so this is an unpublished preview from someone who looks to be a very reputable source.

Data is from SGTF (spike gene target failure) from standard pcr tests. PCR tests for three targets in the covid genome and reports positive if any two are found. The omicron spike gene is mutated at the target sequence, so you only ever get two. So looking at the number of SGTF PCR tests gives a good proxy for omicron without doing the full sequencing, and is probably the best way to monitor initial spread.

The variant looks to be escaping immunity from infection, but no evidence it's causing more severe disease in the vaccinated, thankfully, and good reasons to believe vaccinating still effective vs severe disease.

Please, get your jab booked TODAY if you're eligible for first, second or booster.
Click to expand...

On this note, does anyone know when the 3 month thing kicks in? Its still limiting me to 6 months.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
New data on UK spread. Bad news I'm afraid.

Looking increasingly likely the rate of increase here is similar to South Africa.

On Saturday, omicron was 2% of all UK cases ie ~1000, and doubling every 3 days. So likely ~2,000 today.



The data is apparently from UKHSA, but only published weekly, so this is an unpublished preview from someone who looks to be a very reputable source.

Data is from SGTF (spike gene target failure) from standard pcr tests. PCR tests for three targets in the covid genome and reports positive if any two are found. The omicron spike gene is mutated at the target sequence, so you only ever get two. So looking at the number of SGTF PCR tests gives a good proxy for omicron without doing the full sequencing, and is probably the best way to monitor initial spread.

The variant looks to be escaping immunity from infection, but no evidence it's causing more severe disease in the vaccinated, thankfully, and good reasons to believe vaccinating still effective vs severe disease.

Please, get your jab booked TODAY if you're eligible for first, second or booster.
Click to expand...


It’s not bad news if the infection is leading to minor illness, as seems the case right now.

Not once have we ever been told a vaccine will stop us catching covid and not once have we been told having a vaccine will stop us transmitting.

We have been told that the virus will be with us forever, will constantly mutate and that we will have to learn to live with it by way of vaccination.

So yes, get your vaccines. Have your booster, I have and will continue to do so but I also want to get on with life and I want everyone else to get on with their lives.
 
blueinsa said:
It’s not bad news if the infection is leading to minor illness, as seems the case right now.

Not once have we ever been told a vaccine will stop us catching covid and not once have we been told having a vaccine will stop us transmitting.

We have been told that the virus will be with us forever, will constantly mutate and that we will have to learn to live with it by way of vaccination.

So yes, get your vaccines. Have your booster, I have and will continue to do so but I also want to get on with life and I want everyone else to get on with their lives.
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Pretty much this.

I think we can all agree that Zero Covid isn't a realistic possibility and the main job of the vaccine is to protect against serious illness & hospitalizations.

Admittedly a more transmissible virus will more than likely lead to a rise in deaths/admissions just due to the amount of unvaccinated but bar turning them away at the door I'm not sure what you can do about that...

I imagine most cases will be Omicron soon regardless just due to it's novelty. In 3 to 6 months there'll be another one.
 
blueinsa said:
It’s not bad news if the infection is leading to minor illness, as seems the case right now.
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There's anecdotal evidence that infections are milder in adults, and anecdotal evidence they're more severe in children.

The adult evidence is probably skewed by a young population in SA, and a population that is largely vaccinated or prior infected compared to when the delta wave hit there.

Most experts seem to think its too early to judge severity. It would be very unwise to assume its milder at this point, I think.

On the paeds position, we just have to hope it's some statistical work in small numbers.

Regardless, it would have to be much, much milder to avoid a significant wave of hospital admissions with this growth rate. Given the rate if growth of hospitalisation in Gauteng, this doesn't appear at all likely, though not beyond the realm of possibility.

John burn murdoch did a good thread on this.

 
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