Coronavirus (2021) thread

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What is the balance of risk between protecting the population against serious illness and distributing a none-sterilising 'leaky' vaccine?
 
Bluewonder said:
We didn't have vaccines for Spanish Flu and the reality is that there is 20% fewer people in hospital than there was 6 weeks ago. As I said earlier, this is political and nothing else.
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And estimates for Spanish Flu deaths range between 225,000 deaths to as many as 300,000 in the UK. This at a time when the population was smaller and people travelled much less.

Without the vaccines and restrictions we’d be looking at that number now for
Covid.
 
Bluewonder said:
We didn't have vaccines for Spanish Flu and the reality is that there is 20% fewer people in hospital than there was 6 weeks ago. As I said earlier, this is political and nothing else.
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Why ? what does it achieve for Johnson politically. Do you think it will make him popular ?
 
Mr Coopz said:
If continuous booster shots can’t prevent the need for restrictions or even possibly a lockdown in a more extreme scenario what hope do we even have ? People keep saying “stop fretting, it won’t be forever” but seemingly nothing we do is good enough in the long run. Hospitals eventually get overwhelmed regardless and we’re back into a depressing rut again. The virus has no boiological reasoning or pressure to lessen its lethality so we’re just stuck as we are pretending that everything will be okay when seemingly it won’t. Wish I could just disappear until this thing stops in its tracks and then reappear all of a sudden back into a better world.
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This is now the bit where the people who haven’t been vaccinated get blamed.
 
Bluewonder said:
A number of his own MPs have accused him of diversionary tactics as he is on the ropes with this Christmas party fiasco. I think that says it all.
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grunge said:
It gets the Christmas party story out of the press which is a story that could get him kicked out of power.
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No ,it won’t. In fact it will make them harder to shake off as the hypocrisy calls will increase. Especially from those in his party that are against restrictions.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
its a strange day

the prime minister apologises for a party at number 10 , he says and claims never happened.

the WHO say the vaccines offer protection against the new variant and that the new variant is less severe than previous variants but apparently the pm is going to announce more restrictions.
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Are you suggesting a variant that is less severe (this is opinion not fact, yet) will not lead to a substantial increase on deaths not overwhelm the NHS?
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Sums up the nonsense the scientists are spouting. Lauding their boosters and confirming it's a lesser variant and then advocating restrictions. Go unpick their logic.
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You don't need to be a scientist to explain the logic of that. If a weaker virus infects more people, we could end up with more people becoming seriously ill, going to hospital and dying.
 
Octavian said:
And estimates for Spanish Flu deaths range between 225,000 deaths to as many as 300,000 in the UK. This at a time when the population was smaller and people travelled much less.

Without the vaccines and restrictions we’d be looking at that number now for
Covid.
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If Covid-19 developed in 1919 would it have passed by now? Were Delta and Omicron inevitable or are they man-made (indirectly!)?
 
blueparrot said:
No ,it won’t. In fact it will make them harder to shake off as the hypocrisy calls will increase. Especially from those in his party that are against restrictions.
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Exactly. The public are livid with them for the party and this will only double up with the frustrations felt at further restrictions. The government would be better placed stating we were well over the worst of it to deliver good news to the public.
 
Marvin said:
If Covid-19 developed in 1919 would it have passed by now? Were Delta and Omicron inevitable or are they man-made (indirectly!)?
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I’m not a qualified expert here but I doubt it would have passed yet. It’s another highly contagious virus that just so happens to affect the old rather than young, when Sp Flu was the other way around. We’ve probably got another couple of years at least until it’s out of the news.

But we should be super thankful for the vaccines as without them life would be totally bleak.

Variants are totally natural and happen all the time with viruses, the Spanish Flu weakened itself to survive in the end and went into the normal flu circulation.
 
Octavian said:
And estimates for Spanish Flu deaths range between 225,000 deaths to as many as 300,000 in the UK. This at a time when the population was smaller and people travelled much less.

Without the vaccines and restrictions we’d be looking at that number now for
Covid.
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A middle-ground estimate of Spanish Flu mortality is 50m. That's 2.5% of the global population at the time.

The official Covid deaths are 5.3m, that is 0.06% of the global population. I suspect the Covid deaths are underestimated but you can see that Spanish Flu was magnitudes worse.

Also, we have vaccines so the point is moot.
 
Manc in London said:
You don't need to be a scientist to explain the logic of that. If a weaker virus infects more people, we could end up with more people becoming seriously ill, going to hospital and dying.
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Exactly. If it puts, say, 1% of those infected in hospital as opposed to 2% for Delta (which would obviously be good news in terms of severity) but cases triple in number to 150,000 Onicron per day from 50,000 Delta, then that leads to 50% more hospital admissions per day.
 
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