Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Well that’s me isolating, just developed a cough today, did a lateral flow and it’s positive. Going to go to do a PCR now
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The doubling time of the variant since first identified in the UK has been consistently just 40 hours.

This is quite astonishingly fast. Every day the data is reported, I expect it to flatten off. Every day it continues.

View attachment 31712

I would still expect this to flatten as people become more cautious.

Still too early to say anything much on severity, I think.
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Impressive in one sense.
 
Marvin said:
Impressive in one sense.
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well we really wont have to wait long for solid data!.

does raise a question of whether we will have mini waves within a wave as it infects whole areas so quickly that it burns its self out in a couple of days in each area then waves back in again a few weeks later.
 
North West and Greater Manchester numbers today have fallen a lot. Very strange.

Zoe shows exactly the same by the way with numbers falling past 48 hours so much North West is now below every other region in England and only Scotland ahead of it. And only just.

In the real cases over the past 48 hours North West has fallen much as Zoe predicted from 6004 Saturday to 4428 yesterday & 3317 today. That is down from 4261 last Monday.

Meanwhile London has gone 8537 Saturday to 9969 yesterday & 11,791 today.

That is one of the highest ever regional totals in the pandemic. Not sure there were ever any higher.

It seems little doubt where Omicron is most active right now.
 
Is this sense of panic only in the UK or is it replicated across the globe ? Saw an interview this morning on tv with a doctor in South Africa she was very calm and not in hysteria mode .
 
kippaxwarrior said:
My son's class have been told they had to go home this morning as one child has tested positive. Can't go back in for ten days which means he has to go back for day before breaking up for Christmas.

Had to go and get a test at a walk in centre this afternoon and him and his mum have had to as well. We all found out tomorrow
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The schools situation is a farce. Same up here where they have to isolate if anyone in their class tests positive. Why are PCR tests no longer considered good enough? The teachers union encouraged the government to close schools early but Jason Leitch is of the opinion kids have missed too much school already so they're staying open, meaning thousands of kids/parents/teachers will be forced to isolate over Christmas despite nobody in their own households having any symptoms or being positive themselves. Ridiculous situation.

Considering taking own kid out early OR if it comes to it, ignoring isolation requirements if daily Lateral Flow tests come back clear and there's no symptoms. Seems too needlessly harsh for them to miss Christmas, again, when the government have done bugger all to help the situation.

Vaccines available? Nope.
Better ventilation in schools? Nope.

But just go, right in amongst this 'tidal wave of infections', and forget Christmas because someone you don't even speak to tests positive. Having a laugh.
 
grunge said:
Hmm, Looks like Excess deaths are spiking in SA that do not match the Hospitalisations numbers being reported. Its the latest Data they have released. only 2 data points to go on so nothing concrete.

www.bloomberg.com

Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Week ending

21st Nov = 1091 Excess deaths.
28th Nov = 2076 Excess deaths.

Also for reference there excess official Covid count is 90k, but excess deaths are at 275,000 over the pandemic.


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1639413773944.png

looks fine in the epicentre
 
Every single GM borough is down both day to day and week to week. Very unusual lately.

Most places fall quite a lot too.

Have to wonder if this is a test issue - hopefully not - and the fact it mirrors Zoe is certainly a good sign.

Mondays are usually lowish but as you see that is not true everywhere today. Especially in the south.

Am I cynical in thinking if it was the North West just under 12,000 cases not London we would be in special measure lockdown locally.

But 3317 NW v 11,791 is very unexpected and you have to be a little suspicious. As though Lomdon has been well ahead of North West for a time now this gap looks unexpectedly huge.
 
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North West tests are actually up on yesterday - from 108,673 to 122,427 - though down from 131,099 Saturday AND 136,055 last week.

London on the same three days 163,963 today V 158,407 yesterday & 186,293 Saturday and 210,793 last Monday when London had just 6333 cases.

So positivity there well up and Omicron must surely have become very prevalent there over the past 7 days.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
The schools situation is a farce. Same up here where they have to isolate if anyone in their class tests positive. Why are PCR tests no longer considered good enough? The teachers union encouraged the government to close schools early but Jason Leitch is of the opinion kids have missed too much school already so they're staying open, meaning thousands of kids/parents/teachers will be forced to isolate over Christmas despite nobody in their own households having any symptoms or being positive themselves. Ridiculous situation.

Considering taking own kid out early OR if it comes to it, ignoring isolation requirements if daily Lateral Flow tests come back clear and there's no symptoms. Seems too needlessly harsh for them to miss Christmas, again, when the government have done bugger all to help the situation.

Vaccines available? Nope.
Better ventilation in schools? Nope.

But just go, right in amongst this 'tidal wave of infections', and forget Christmas because someone you don't even speak to tests positive. Having a laugh.
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Just don’t pay any attention unless they are ill, it’s simple.
 
grunge said:
Hmm, Looks like Excess deaths are spiking in SA that do not match the Hospitalisations numbers being reported. Its the latest Data they have released. only 2 data points to go on so nothing concrete.

www.bloomberg.com

Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Week ending

21st Nov = 1091 Excess deaths.
28th Nov = 2076 Excess deaths.

Also for reference there excess official Covid count is 90k, but excess deaths are at 275,000 over the pandemic.


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We have to be very careful here because vaccination rates in SA are very low and healthcare standards aren't the best. It's therefore acceptable to assume that any variant of COVID would cause some level of relatively increased deaths compared to a similar infection wave here.

Initial reports of milder symptoms from Omicron are anecdotally only really seen in vaccinated or previously infected people which is to be expected. So really what we're seeing is exactly what's been predicted and that is new variants will tend to be milder but only because our immunity is making it so.

The only difference from Delta for most double jabbed and boosted people is they might get symptoms. However, this time around there's a stronger chance for the majority that symptoms will be short-lived and won't be serious enough to put them in hospital.

The greatest threat posed here is still that the increased transmissibility worsens things considerably for the unvaccinated.
 
Sajid Javid said the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections is around 200,000.
 
inbetween said:
We have to be very careful here because vaccination rates in SA are very low and healthcare standards aren't the best. It's therefore acceptable to assume that any variant of COVID would cause some level of relatively increased deaths compared to a similar infection wave here.

Initial reports of milder symptoms from Omicron are anecdotally only really seen in vaccinated or previously infected people which is to be expected. So really what we're seeing is exactly what's been predicted and that is new variants will tend to be milder but only because our immunity is making it so.

The only difference from Delta for most double jabbed and boosted people is they might get symptoms. However, this time around there's a strong chance for the majority that symptoms will be short-lived and won't be serious enough to put them in hospital.

The greatest threat posed here is that the increased transmissibility worsens things considerably for the unvaccinated.
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Have to consider an older population in the UK too, hence more considered vulnerable in that regard despite being vaccinated.
 
inbetween said:
We have to be very careful here because vaccination rates in SA are very low and healthcare standards aren't the best. It's therefore acceptable to assume that any variant of COVID would cause some level of relatively increased deaths compared to a similar infection wave here.

Initial reports of milder symptoms from Omicron are anecdotally only really seen in vaccinated or previously infected people which is to be expected. So really what we're seeing is exactly what's been predicted and that is new variants will tend to be milder but only because our immunity is making it so.

The only difference from Delta for most double jabbed and boosted people is they might get symptoms. However, this time around there's a stronger chance for the majority that symptoms will be short-lived and won't be serious enough to put them in hospital.

The greatest threat posed here is still that the increased transmissibility worsens things considerably for the unvaccinated.
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Agreed, still a lot of data needed. and only 2 datapoints being available as well as 2 weeks lag isn't helping.

As BerkshireBlue pointed out. GT's excess deaths were not showing anything and they were 1st to be hit. and also have the highest vaccination rates in SA so could be a good sign.

the speed its travelling we're not going to have to wait long to know here.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Just don’t pay any attention unless they are ill, it’s simple.
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I'm sure most people would do just that and wouldn't pay a seconds thought to it, I just find that stance a bit difficult given we've stuck by pretty much everything for nearly 2 years now..a leap to ignoring rules in place is a bit more difficult in that sense ha.

But yeah, given how ridiculous the situation is and weighing up the risk/benefit I am likely to do just that, and sure others will be in a similar position.
 
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