Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Please do not argue over my posts. I said earlier I was fine with what was being said as I had posted a lot tonight. But I also explained why I did so.

The numbers today were rather significant as they showed a major change linked to what we have been talking about here all day.They told us a lot about what was happening right now in the UK.

Hence I posted them here where everyone was today.

I also pointed out that I did so only as others were posting data in here too - such as the South Africa numbers and grphs over the last page in fact. Just taken from Twitter threads.

And noted that I saw that all being posted in here and felt that gave me leeway today though admitted I maybe overdid it a bit.

But now I just wonder what actually constitutes data.

I have not bothered posting any more tonight on the other thread as everyone was in here anyway and I am not going to become the centre of a fight over all this.

But I would like it clarifying what is regarded as data that should not go in here and only be on the other thread and what is data that is OK to post in here.

I have not posted here any of the charts I used to do on the other thread. With GM cases per borough and Pop Scores etc. Just crucial case numbers to try to show where Omicron is regionally in the UK today. And a summary of the hospital changes over the past weekend as the government admitted that there were now Omicron cases going into hospital and this is the key to what Christmas will be like for us all if this changes rapidly as it might

So the data here is pretty important at this point as we try to work out how serious the variant is to health. Why is posting South African numbers on that OK in here but our own numbers not? That confuses me.

If I make a graph out of it and post it on Twitter then link to that Twitter thread into here is that OK? As others have done so without comment.

Or should that be on the other thread too?

Just seeking clarity before I post again. That is all
 
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With the UK calling it 200k cases per day and with it doubling every 2/3 days, am I correct in saying we could have herd immunity while we've still got turkey and pickles in the fridge?
www.independent.co.uk

UK omicron cases running at 200,000 a day, Sajid Javid says

It comes as the NHS’ Covid alert level was raised to four, the highest possible level
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
www.theguardian.com

Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK, says scientist

Prof Neil Ferguson says coronavirus variant likely to be dominant strain in the UK before Christmas
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Healdplace said:
Please do not argue over my posts. I said earlier I was fine with what was being said as I had posted a lot tonight. But I also explained why I did so.

The numbers today were rather significant as they showed a major change linked to what we have been talking about here all day.They told us a lot about what was happening right now in the UK.

Hence I posted them here where everyone was today.

I also pointed out that I did so only as others were posting data in here too - such as the South Africa numbers and grphs over the last page in fact. Just taken from Twitter threads.

And noted that I saw that all being posted in here and felt that gave me leeway today And now I just wonder what actually constitutes data.

I have not bothered posting any more tonight as I am not going to become the centre of a fight over all this.

But I would like clarifying what is regarded as data that should not go in here only the other thread and what is data that is OK to post in here. I have not posted any of the charts I usedto do on the other thread in here. With GM cases and Pop Scores etc. Just crucial cases to try to show where Omicron is in the UK today. And a summary of the hospital changes over the past weekend as the government admitted that there were now Omicron cases going into hospital so the data here is pretty important at this point as we try to woerk out how eious the variant is to health.


If I make a graph out of it and post it on Twitter then link to that Twitter thread in here is that OK? As others have without comment.

Or shiuld that be on the other thread too?

Just seeking clarity. That is all
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I think I can add some clarity.

For several months, lockdown had ended, most were vaccinated and being offered the booster. There was no real “news” on covid and the vast majority of people stopped clicking on this thread as it contained very little discussion and every page generally had 5-8 posts from yourself which stated all of the data for every borough in the NW.

I myself and many others just scrolled on through to see if there was any actual news (rather than acres and acres of tables for stuff no one cared that strongly about) every single day. That’s why a data thread made sense, you could go through your cathartic process of posting the numbers and those inclined to read them could do so at their leisure and others would be free to come in here to shout at anti-vaxxers and discuss the wider pandemic


Now obviously everything is in a state of flux, the RSA numbers are important because it’s the first place dealing with Omicron and people want to see how it is coping and how severe this variant is. That doesn’t mean this thread is ready for 50% of the posts within it telling me the numbers in extreme detail for Ramsbottom against Chorley.

If you could post your numbers on Twitter and link one tweet a day on here I’m sure no one would mind, no. But I don’t think we’re ready for 15 posts a day with the minutiae of every NHS Trust just yet.
 
A bit of context for the NHS, as these figures are rarely/never reported. They are for the region of England I live in.

% of beds occupied by covid positive patients. 5.4%
11200 beds of which 610 are covid patients.
total bed occupancy. 93%
critical care beds occupied. 290
critical care beds occupied by Covid positive patients. 80
610 beds occupied by C-19 patients of which 294 were diagnosed whilst inpatients.
390 patients on mechanical ventilation, 76 of which are covid positive.
oxygen beds available 10000. 450 covid positive patients and 9000 not.

Now, admittedly these figures could certainly be better, but are they the figures that mean plans b and c need to be even thought about, let alone implemented?
Apologies for posting in 2 threads but I thought it was interesting enough for both.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
A bit of context for the NHS, as these figures are rarely/never reported. They are for the region of England I live in.

% of beds occupied by covid positive patients. 5.4%
11200 beds of which 610 are covid patients.
total bed occupancy. 93%
critical care beds occupied. 290
critical care beds occupied by Covid positive patients. 80
610 beds occupied by C-19 patients of which 294 were diagnosed whilst inpatients.
390 patients on mechanical ventilation, 76 of which are covid positive.
oxygen beds available 10000. 450 covid positive patients and 9000 not.

Now, admittedly these figures could certainly be better, but are they the figures that mean plans b and c need to be even thought about, let alone implemented?
Apologies for posting in 2 threads but I thought it was interesting enough for both.
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Careful. A poster from near Bury will be onto you shortly. ;-)
 
davealvers said:
Apparently not

Click to expand...

Ah those modelling predictions.
That said BA.1 is the strain of Omicron with the S gene drop out. There is another BA.2 that doesn't have the S gene drop out.
The ONS prediction from real-world HSA DNA sequenced tests will be published later on in the week to data up to the previous Friday. We will no for sure then.
 
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Gaylord du Bois said:
With the UK calling it 200k cases per day and with it doubling every 2/3 days, am I correct in saying we could have herd immunity while we've still got turkey and pickles in the fridge?
www.independent.co.uk

UK omicron cases running at 200,000 a day, Sajid Javid says

It comes as the NHS’ Covid alert level was raised to four, the highest possible level
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
www.theguardian.com

Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK, says scientist

Prof Neil Ferguson says coronavirus variant likely to be dominant strain in the UK before Christmas
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Its not doing anything like that.
200k was the prediction of the LSHTM model.
Not real world data. Which is:
news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK reports another 1,576 cases of Omicron variant as 54,661 coronavirus infections recorded in last 24 hours

It comes after the first death of a patient with Omicron in the UK was confirmed by Boris Johnson.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
1576 actuals
1576 x 2.5(ish) = 3968 if Zoe/React prediction multiplier is correct.
This quadruples every week if doubling time is 3.5 days.
Only out by a factor of -9.5 from model to actuals.
 
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Healdplace said:
North West and Greater Manchester numbers today have fallen a lot. Very strange.

Zoe shows exactly the same by the way with numbers falling past 48 hours so much North West is now below every other region in England and only Scotland ahead of it. And only just.

In the real cases over the past 48 hours North West has fallen much as Zoe predicted from 6004 Saturday to 4428 yesterday & 3317 today. That is down from 4261 last Monday.

Meanwhile London has gone 8537 Saturday to 9969 yesterday & 11,791 today.

That is one of the highest ever regional totals in the pandemic. Not sure there were ever any higher.

It seems little doubt where Omicron is most active right now.
Click to expand...

Healdplace said:
Every single GM borough is down both day to day and week to week. Very unusual lately.

Most places fall quite a lot too.

Have to wonder if this is a test issue - hopefully not - and the fact it mirrors Zoe is certainly a good sign.

Mondays are usually lowish but as you see that is not true everywhere today. Especially in the south.

Am I cynical in thinking if it was the North West just under 12,000 cases not London we would be in special measure lockdown locally.

But 3317 NW v 11,791 is very unexpected and you have to be a little suspicious. As though Lomdon has been well ahead of North West for a time now this gap looks unexpectedly huge.
Click to expand...

Healdplace said:
North West tests are actually up on yesterday - from 108,673 to 122,427 - though down from 131,099 Saturday AND 136,055 last week.

London on the same three days 163,963 today V 158,407 yesterday & 186,293 Saturday and 210,793 last Monday when London had just 6333 cases.

So positivity there well up and Omicron must surely have become very prevalent there over the past 7 days.
Click to expand...

Healdplace said:
Just another quick comment on todays remarkable numbers. Most of the other regions outside the south fell big today too.

Aside from London up 1800, South East was up 1800, South West up 1200 and East up 1000.

So all and more of the England rise was in the southern regions and the rest of England is actually well down on last week. West Midlands is actually down below 2000. Very low here. And is less than half what it was on Saturday.

Not sure if this supports a data issue in the midlands and north regions over past two days or is a real difference as the southern regions have been well ahead for a week or two now - at least since Omicron was even a word let alone a factor we knew about.

But the gulf today is enough to be suspicious. Though Gov UK make no reference to it as they usually do when one is identified.
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Ok, sure we are all bored of the arguing, however just to prove my point here are 4 posts that have no reason to be in this thread that were posted earlier.

I have no issue with basic info that needs to be discussed.
 
grunge said:
Apologies to Hammocity for talking so bluntly. Obviously im sorry for his loss and I apologise for not acknowledging that earlier.

Of course it should go down as a Covid death. If someone has 2/3 weeks left and they last only a few days or 1 week because they catch Covid then Covid is a significant contributing factor to there death. How sick they are before this point is not really relevant at all to the diagnosis. Even if it was just the final nudge.

If someone has Covid and happens to get hit by a bus. then obviously they are not a Covid death.

There have been strict guidelines set up by the WHO since early days to say what is/is not a Covid death.

Click to expand...
Just seen this, no apologies required, you made some salient points, appreciated.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
A bit of context for the NHS, as these figures are rarely/never reported. They are for the region of England I live in.

% of beds occupied by covid positive patients. 5.4%
11200 beds of which 610 are covid patients.
total bed occupancy. 93%
critical care beds occupied. 290
critical care beds occupied by Covid positive patients. 80
610 beds occupied by C-19 patients of which 294 were diagnosed whilst inpatients.
390 patients on mechanical ventilation, 76 of which are covid positive.
oxygen beds available 10000. 450 covid positive patients and 9000 not.

Now, admittedly these figures could certainly be better, but are they the figures that mean plans b and c need to be even thought about, let alone implemented?
Apologies for posting in 2 threads but I thought it was interesting enough for both.
Click to expand...
This is NOT the Covid data thread. Rules are rules, do not post this kind of data in here.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Ok, sure we are all bored of the arguing, however just to prove my point here are 4 posts that have no reason to be in this thread that were posted earlier.

I have no issue with basic info that needs to be discussed.
Click to expand...
Well done in posting them again

We just need a male poster period thread now
 
Felt dodgy yesterday, got up for work and feel worse so done at home NHS Antigen covid test which has come back positive.
I have to self isolate but I also need to do a PCR test. There's a test centre 5 minutes away from me. Am I allowed to go to this test centre?

Apologies for my ignorance on this. I suppose I should really know exactly what to do.
 
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