Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SWP's back]

A few weeks ago I do recall SAGE predicting we’d be hitting 100k cases and this was dismissed as ‘scaremongering’ - I do get some of their predictions seem way off the mark but not always.

They said it in July, referring to Delta in October.

 

[The blue phantom]

This is absolutely insane. Journo had a chat with a SAGE modeller on twitter and I can't get my head around his admission that essentially they only do scary models because there's no point doing encouraging models as they're not asked to. Genuinely mad.

 

[mosssideblue]

Forget long and draining episodes. This is all at once.

For the original virus we had Wuhan as our guide. The rest of the world saw Alpha in the UK, then we had Delta in India. Now we look at South Africa. The peak is awfully high, but thereafter it crashes. The scale of serious illness an order of magnitude less than we have seen before. But this arrives all at once.

Hope this isn't a stupid question, but are you saying all new cases are Omicron and there is no longer a Delta variant about?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

They said it in July, referring to Delta in October.

yep bang on, it certainly wasnt about this winter. They hadnt run their modelling scenarios for this winter as they could only predict with any certainty 8 weeks ahead. As it was they couldnt even do that.

 

[meltonblue]

And this too -

 

[Cheesy]

It's disturbing.

It's bollocks.

As ever though, you chose to believe it because it suits you.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Hope this isn't a stupid question, but are you saying all new cases are Omicron and there is no longer a Delta variant about?

Delta will still be circulating at the moment but I imagine will be replaced by omicron as the dominant strain. There is the possibility you could catch both at the same time. Get vaccinated.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

A few weeks ago I do recall SAGE predicting we’d be hitting 100k cases and this was dismissed as ‘scaremongering’ - I do get some of their predictions seem way off the mark but not always.

It was early september I think and they were predicting it for mid Oct. Cases topped out at 50k on average a week.

 

[paulchapo]

Given sufficient time, I'm sure the Pharma's could provide a more effective vaccine, capable of being easily adapted to meet new demands. The reality is we needed a neigh on immediate flash to bang solution to get some effectiveness into people's arms. Time for them was never a luxury.

Grandstanding or not, their respective Governments feel it necessary and we need to respect that.

The problem is if you keep hammering home to people that if you do X,Y,Z then we can live a normal life but then you start lockdowns again even the most pro policy people will lose heart and faith.

We haven't got a choice but to respect it they're not letting us in, not that France or Germany are on my to visit lists anyway

 

[Bluewonder]

For who's benefit?

I said innumerate. The implication there is simply incompetence.

Or perhaps they like their influence and fame/money it brings them.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

I think there is a misunderstanding of the job that modellers have, modellers aren't there to express models that make the media or us feel warm inside. If a variant is milder then as the guy has said there's nothing whatsoever to see here and nothing to do so what's the point in modelling it?

They will model worst case scenarios because that informs the government on what action is needed, they need to know this because how can you plan otherwise? If Omicron turns out to be the same as Delta then that shows that they need X doctors, X capacity or else we can't cope and so we need X restrictions to help it. They then model the impact of those restrictions which gives you something resembling a plan.

However, what is the action needed if Omicron turned out to not cause any problems at all, the answer is no actions at all so what's the point in modelling it? It isn't like we're arguing to shrink health capacity if the severity of Omicron turned out to be milder, if that was the case then optimistic models would be very useful.

It needs to be remembered that the government doesn't just take a model and use that to decide if we go into lockdown or not. If that was true then at 90,000 cases per day (the highest ever) we'd be in total lockdown right now but we aren't.

So wrong. The point of modelling is to predict the likely truth. Sure you can do worst case best stuff but it's the likely outcome is what you are interested in. The MPs want to know the likely scenario as they don't want to blow £30+ billion on a lockdown that isn't needed. It also makes a mockery of all the press the SAGE models get.

 

[Bluewonder]

That is the same thing, expressed in a different way.

 

[paulchapo]

It's bollocks.

As ever though, you chose to believe it because it suits you.

As you choose to believe what you believe because it suits you. So who's right and who's wrong?

 

[twosips]

Just tested positive. Gutted. Xmas cancelled.

 

[Octavian]

I think they give particularly gloomy predictions because if it goes tits up, they don’t want to be blamed. When I was in business my mantra was under promise, over deliver.

 

[Octavian]

Just tested positive. Gutted. Xmas cancelled.

Sorry fella, that’s a real shame.

Try and think of the positives in life.

Hope you get a mild dose of the bastard.

 

[mexico1970]

Just tested positive. Gutted. Xmas cancelled.

I have had this thing for 2 weeks now and am just getting out of the woods, couldn't get my booster because I have been ill with it. Really hoping you're one of those without full blown symptoms mate, be safe and keep well pal.

 

[Gabriel]

My Mum hasn't had her booster. She fell between the cracks. There will be a lot like her. SHe is in a care home. What happens when all her carers (and visitors) get ill. Multiply this thousands of times and this is where we will have problems. Any respiratory illness is serious for some.

I spoke to someone this morning whose aged mother is in the same situation. There just aren’t the staff to get the boosters into care homes, yet young people who are in considerably less danger are queuing for hours because of Government messaging.

Countries ignored Israel’s warning and let their guard down.

 

[blueinsa]

Zee Germans now copying Le Frenche in banning UK travellers.

What the fuck is that going to achieve at this point?

Political point scoring, that’s all it is.

 

[BobKowalski]

I think there is a misunderstanding of the job that modellers have, modellers aren't there to express models that make the media or us feel warm inside. If a variant is milder then as the guy has said there's nothing whatsoever to see here and nothing to do so what's the point in modelling it?

They will model worst case scenarios because that informs the government on what action is needed, they need to know this because how can you plan otherwise? If Omicron turns out to be the same as Delta then that shows that they need X doctors, X capacity or else we can't cope and so we need X restrictions to help it. They then model the impact of those restrictions which gives you something resembling a plan.

However, what is the action needed if Omicron turned out to not cause any problems at all, the answer is no actions at all so what's the point in modelling it? It isn't like we're arguing to shrink health capacity if the severity of Omicron turned out to be milder, if that was the case then optimistic models would be very useful.

It needs to be remembered that the government doesn't just take a model and use that to decide if we go into lockdown or not. If that was true then at 90,000 cases per day (the highest ever) we'd be in total lockdown right now but we aren't.

Yep. Zero point in modelling a scenario where everyone is skipping around and plaiting daisy chains into each others hair. You model varying worst case scenarios, see how reality matches against them and keep one step ahead with appropriate measures to stem or head off the worst case materialising.

I get that everyone is twitchy, but selling the public fantasy scenarios to make everyone feel better isn’t going to help in the long run.