Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

270 cases in Scotland today

5 are aged 65+
35 are aged 45-64


108 are aged 25-44
122 are aged 0-24

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[twosips]

Just came to post that too. Amazing news and shows that while yes, we should be concerned about this new variant, it doesn't mean we should be worried. We just need to get as many jabs into arms as possible and we're good to go.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Good news but Indian B.1.617.2 is the variant of concern not B.1.617.1. It is unlikely that B.1.617.2 will be a lot worse though.

Agreed - but iirc the B.1.617.1. is here too (in much lower numbers) but there were concerns surrounding it having similar mutation to the SA variant and might have posed a problem for vaccine efficacy. I know b.1.167.2. Is the VOC and the dominant one here but hopefully the confidence in vaccine efficacy against it holds up, should know soon I guess?

 

[splinter]

Wow..outstanding figures

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2802 - much closer to the real cases today.

North West now up to the dark pink zone with Scotland, Yorkshire and London.

And predicted symptomatic cases up 877 on yesterday to 32, 541.

NORTH WEST NUMBERS

(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)

BOLTON 1209 / 4267 V 1295 / 4571 Down a bit but in second tier of infection along with neighbour Chorley which is a bit lower on 377 / 3252

That 4267 is the number to watch. It has to fall a lot. Indeed to go off watch list it has to go below 1000 - as do the places below here.

OLDHAM 430 / 1837 v 263 / 1978 - high numbers but its cases are still in single figures. Was lowest in GM today.

STOCKPORT 373 / 1290 v 394 / 1364 - a small fall day today but still over the 1000 so still on the watch list.

MANCHESTER 657 / 1204 v 309 / 566 - Big rise matching cases that came today hours after Zoe made this prediction from its data reported to the app. Enough to take Manchester alongside Stockport on the lower levels of the watch zone. Though rising where Stockport numbers are falling.


Other GM Areas

BURY 29/ 152 v 29 / 156 - still very low and very little change

ROCHDALE 32 / 147 v 31 / 144 - like Bury doing well - tiny increase

SALFORD 158 / 624 v 168 / 666 - happily a small fall.

TAMESIDE 38 / 170 v 46 / 207 - Also falling so good to see

TRAFFORD 101 / 433 v 105 / 449 - Another small daily fall.

WIGAN 121 / 374 v 127 / 391 - watching closely given proximity to Bolton but numbers edging down is good.


Fylde (Blackpool) is on 172 / 2188 V 178 / 2259 small fall on the Fylde.


~
So only Manchester was the real concern today with the big rise that was reflected perfectly hours later in its actual case numbers.

 

[unicorn]

Yes these are cases rising and not deaths and it will probably take a lot more cases to create 100 deaths now than was true in January. But we have to act swiftly and stop the exponential rise in numbers and the hints of spread in GM - but we have an edge here. We have the time to squash this we would not have had in January. But we need yo act not just debate.

Based on known evidence about mortality rates, approximately how many cases in a younger (unvaccinated) population would it take to produce 100 deaths. Presumably well over 10,000 ?

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 58 to 215 v 224

London down 48 to 229 v 252 - nothing worrying here as yet

South East UP 111 to 230 v 195

South West UP 32 to 111 v 120







MIDLANDS

East UP 13 to 187 v 257 - nice fall wk to wk

West down 49 to 164 v 179 Midlands had a good day.



NORTH

North East up 32 to 108 v 97 - up slightly and nearly lost lowest cases to the south west


Yorkshire down 9 to 333 v 406 (Down, doing better than the North West and miles behind now)




NORTH WEST UP 178 to 578 v 371. Huge rise on day and week to week and top scorers in the UK by a whopping 245. We know why.


GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 117 day to day to 365 - largest total in weeks. From NW rise of 178

Up 173 week to week. Vast majority of the NW rise of 207.

 

[shemnel]

Based on known evidence about mortality rates, approximately how many cases in a younger (unvaccinated) population would it take to produce 100 deaths. Presumably well over 10,000 ?

looking at officially recorded data only, in England only;

there are 1,288,186 covid cases < 30 yrs.
there are 231 covid deaths < 30 yrs

this means the IFR on known cases is ~0.018 %

known cases is surely nowhere near the real cases, especially in the younger population. I would bet it's double at the very least.

a 'positive' that predominantly younger folks are getting it is that it translates into far less deaths further down the line, with zero vaccination.

(upping that to < 40 yrs = 0.04%. Again only recorded cases, which will be a large under estimate.)

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

we are going to have a big 3rd wave from this week on and the vaccines will be tested to the max
the 21st of june open the flood gates is not going to happen because next week and the week after cases will be high sadly the deaths will be up again could even be in tripple numbers each day

Fucking hell didn’t know Chris Whitty was on blue moon.