Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


365 cases today - up 117 on day. Biggest rise in weeks. From 578 North West cases.




Bolton - unfortunately huge rise - of 65 - biggest daily rise yet - to 189 - up a giant 128 on last week. Tripled in 7 days. Pop score rise today was 66 - biggest by anyone in GM for over 3 months


Manchester also shoots up 35 to 71 which is biggest rise and highest number in a while here too. Up 38 from last week. Hope it is a blip and not the start of another Bolton. To have done as badly as Bolton today Manchester would have had to score 350 cases.


Wigan up 5 on day to 23 - which is up 7 wk to wk. Numbers are escalating a bit too but not yet overly so.

Stockport on 19 for third straight day which is up 6 on last week. Also dicing with going out of control but not yet taking off . Like Wigan could tip either way.

Rochdale up 3 on 13 - which is down 5 week to week.

Salford down 1 to 12 which is down 6 on last week. Rochdale & Salford doing fine for now.

Trafford up 3 to 11 - up 6 wk to wk.

Tameside up 4 also on 11 which is up 1 wk to wk

Bury up 6 to also be on 11 which is up 5 wk to wk.


And that leaves just one borough in single figures today:-


Oldham down 1 to 7 - which is 5 down wk to wk.



Weekly total cases:-


Bolton tops 750 weekly cases and keeps climbing and Manchester up big too.

Bury - still easily in the lead.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now four over 100 and Stockport only just missed making it five.

Bury 45, Oldham 59, Salford 73, Trafford 75, Tameside 78, Stockport 99, Rochdale 107, Wigan 112, Manchester 270, Bolton 751.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Im 43 and I have serious reservations about taking it, is anyone else in any doubt?

Not being funny but don’t be a half wit.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Not being funny but don’t be a half wit.

Half wit would be an improvement.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Nearly 800 new cases of Indian variant are confirmed

Britain has seen a sharp rise in the number of confirmed cases of the B1617.2 coronavirus variant first found in India, Public Health England said on Thursday, with the total now at 1,313.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 261 / 108 / UP 153 Testing positive 9.5%

Manchester 49 / 35 / UP 14 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 48 / 38 / UP 10 Testing positive 9.7%

Tameside 34 / 20 UP 14 Testing positive 8.2

Wigan 34 / 26 / UP 8 Testing positive 8.9%

Stockport 33 / 27 / UP 6 Testing positive 7.2%

Trafford 31 / 38 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 7.1 %

Salford 28 / 32 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 25 / 26 DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.8%

Bury 23 / 22 / UP 1 Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton still climbing miles above the rest 212 ahead of second - this gap is increasing every day which is awful news for Bolton but good news for GM that nobody is emulating its rise yet. Though Manchester is the most likely based on its big jump up today. For now never seen a top pop score this far away from the rest.

Stockport is just going up slightly and went up a ranking in the numbers today as most places are now inching up.

Wigan is a bit like Stockport as in August when Bolton last saw a big number rise. Fingers crossed there is no cross contamination this time around.

Oldham and Bury are still top of the tree and doing well right now.

But Trafford has slowly reasserted itself to slip down the table.

Remember going down in this table is good not bad!

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I'll put this here as it's more widely read than the vaccine thread.

I've just updated the MyGP app as I've read that from Monday it will show your vaccination status once you have had both shots. There is a new section at the top of the first page called MyGP TICKet that does exactly that. I had my second shot on the 3rd and it won't show mine yet though. This might be because it takes 10 days before you are classed as 'fully baked' or maybe it will be from Monday, the official start date.

This will definitely be useful for foreign holidays soon and maybe for things like large events once everyone has been offered a vaccine.

 

[True_Blue69]

Yes these are cases rising and not deaths and it will probably take a lot more cases to create 100 deaths now than was true in January. But we have to act swiftly and stop the exponential rise in numbers and the hints of spread in GM - but we have an edge here. We have the time to squash this we would not have had in January. But we need yo act not just debate.

The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, are people forgetting this? Cases are practically irrelevant providing the vaccine works.

 

[True_Blue69]

Agreed. And thank you. But as I have said before targeted messaging is needed and more than ever right now.

Invulnerability is for myth and Superman not those saying too risky to have this vaccine.

Things like the 45% of deaths today under 60 need stressing to make that point.

And unfortunately I fear we have to rethink refusing to be vaccinated not having any material consequences too. Keep it a choice. Do not impose. But there have to be consequences from saying no in order to change enough minds.

45% of what though? Use the actual number rather than a high percentage which is bound to cause alarm. If you say 5 people under 60 have died today, it tells the true story.

 

[blueparrot]

45% of what though? Use the actual number rather than a high percentage which is bound to cause alarm. If you say 5 people under 60 have died today, it tells the true story.

I agree, and surely the %age of deaths under 60 going up is a good thing, as it must means the vaccinations in older people are cutting the deaths of the older age groups.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

looking at officially recorded data only, in England only;

there are 1,288,186 covid cases < 30 yrs.
there are 231 covid deaths < 30 yrs

this means the IFR on known cases is ~0.018 %

known cases is surely nowhere near the real cases, especially in the younger population. I would bet it's double at the very least.

a 'positive' that predominantly younger folks are getting it is that it translates into far less deaths further down the line, with zero vaccination.

(upping that to < 40 yrs = 0.04%. Again only recorded cases, which will be a large under estimate.)

And that’s people who died with Covid, not necessarily from Covid, which takes the IFR even lower.