The Light Was Yellow Sir
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Population about 6 times as big as ours suggests they’re not far from where we are. Their ICU admissions are a massive outlier though, which looks a bit odd.
COVID Data Thread
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Healdplace
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WALES DATA
10 deaths - was 2 last week
21,279 cases - was 5929 last week
26% positivity - was 16% last week
531 patients (latest as of Saturday) - was 454 last week
33 ventilated (as of Saturday) - was 32 last week
Cases rocketting up, patients rising moderately, but ventilators not by much.
Same pattern as rest of UK
10 deaths - was 2 last week
21,279 cases - was 5929 last week
26% positivity - was 16% last week
531 patients (latest as of Saturday) - was 454 last week
33 ventilated (as of Saturday) - was 32 last week
Cases rocketting up, patients rising moderately, but ventilators not by much.
Same pattern as rest of UK
The main trust you refer to, which has been on the BBC and a lot on local news, is the Morecambe Bay Trust, which is Lancaster, Kendal & Barrow.
Just anecdotally, I have a minor day surgery operation in one of those hospitals on Monday, and it has not been cancelled (yet). In fact i was only put forward for surgery for the first time in early December, had to fight them not to have it the same week, arranged it for mid Jan and had it brought forward to the 10th Jan only a few days ago. I was told there is zero waiting list for minor orthopedic procedures at the moment (in that trust). The load on hospitals is not uniform within the hospital, the trust, the region or the country!
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS
THESE COVER 5 DAYS OVER THE HOLIDAYS 1 - 5 JANUARY
TOTAL: - 372 WITH 66 FROM NORTH WEST.
NOT REALLY POSSIBLE TO COMPARE WITH LAST WEEK AS THERE WERE ZERO REPORTS ON 25 & 26 DEC AND A BIG CATCH UP NUMBER (317) ON 30 DEC OUTSIDE THE COMPARISON PERIOD.
BUT IT WAS 196 PLUS WHATEVER SHARE OF THAT 317 WOULD HAVE IN A NORMAL WEEK BEEN REPORTED EARLIER.
AN EASIER COMPARISON IS FOR THE 5 DAYS IN THE TWO 'NORMAL' WEEKS BEFORE
THESE WERE (18 - 22 DEC) AND (11 - 15 DEC)
THOSE NUMBERS WERE 388 WITH 54 NORTH WEST & 378 WITH 60 NORTH WEST
As you can see THE most notable thing is deaths being pretty flat but with the contribution from the North West going up.
There is certainly no dramatic rise in deaths visible since Omicron arrived. Though 28 December does have 101 deaths and was at that point at 5 days - though how much that was impacted by catch up and abnormal reporting patterns (as it is still 101 now three days on) is tough to call.
The last few days though do show the hint of an increase and all the as yet uncompleted totals for Jan 1 onward ARE above last week a little.
So I suspect a rise in coming weeks is inevitable and just how much of one is the only question when cases filter through. As of now it is not dramatic. But that could change.
THESE COVER 5 DAYS OVER THE HOLIDAYS 1 - 5 JANUARY
TOTAL: - 372 WITH 66 FROM NORTH WEST.
NOT REALLY POSSIBLE TO COMPARE WITH LAST WEEK AS THERE WERE ZERO REPORTS ON 25 & 26 DEC AND A BIG CATCH UP NUMBER (317) ON 30 DEC OUTSIDE THE COMPARISON PERIOD.
BUT IT WAS 196 PLUS WHATEVER SHARE OF THAT 317 WOULD HAVE IN A NORMAL WEEK BEEN REPORTED EARLIER.
AN EASIER COMPARISON IS FOR THE 5 DAYS IN THE TWO 'NORMAL' WEEKS BEFORE
THESE WERE (18 - 22 DEC) AND (11 - 15 DEC)
THOSE NUMBERS WERE 388 WITH 54 NORTH WEST & 378 WITH 60 NORTH WEST
As you can see THE most notable thing is deaths being pretty flat but with the contribution from the North West going up.
There is certainly no dramatic rise in deaths visible since Omicron arrived. Though 28 December does have 101 deaths and was at that point at 5 days - though how much that was impacted by catch up and abnormal reporting patterns (as it is still 101 now three days on) is tough to call.
The last few days though do show the hint of an increase and all the as yet uncompleted totals for Jan 1 onward ARE above last week a little.
So I suspect a rise in coming weeks is inevitable and just how much of one is the only question when cases filter through. As of now it is not dramatic. But that could change.
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Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL ACROSS ALL DATES :- 1 - 5 JANUARY
By Region:
East 42, London 75. Midlands 61, NE & Yorkshire 43, North West 66, South East 59, South West 26
Most by trust:
13 Barking, Mid & South Essex 12
NORTH WEST TRUSTS:-
11 in Manchester, 10 in Liverpool, 9 in Wigan, 7 in Bolton, 6 in Mid Cheshire. 4 each in Salford & Warrington, 3 in Tameside, 2 each in East Lancashire, Morecambe, Pennine Acute, St Helens & Stockport AND 1 each in Southport & Wirral
By Age:-
0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (13), 40 - 59 (37), 60 - 79 (141), 80 PLUS (180)
By Region:
East 42, London 75. Midlands 61, NE & Yorkshire 43, North West 66, South East 59, South West 26
Most by trust:
13 Barking, Mid & South Essex 12
NORTH WEST TRUSTS:-
11 in Manchester, 10 in Liverpool, 9 in Wigan, 7 in Bolton, 6 in Mid Cheshire. 4 each in Salford & Warrington, 3 in Tameside, 2 each in East Lancashire, Morecambe, Pennine Acute, St Helens & Stockport AND 1 each in Southport & Wirral
By Age:-
0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (13), 40 - 59 (37), 60 - 79 (141), 80 PLUS (180)
kaz7
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The figure for the week ending 31 December was up from 2.3 million in the week to 23 December. It marked the highest number since comparable figures began in autumn 2020.
news.sky.com
COVID-19: Estimated 3.7 million people in UK had coronavirus in week ending 31 December, says ONS
An estimated one in 15 people in England had COVID in the week up to 31 December - the equivalent to 3,270,800 people. In Scotland and Wales, an estimated one in 20 people had the virus, while in Northern Ireland the figure was one in 25.
Healdplace
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SCOTLAND DATA
5 deaths - was 3 last week
16,103 cases - was 15,849 last week
26,9% positivity - was 28.9% last week
1223 patients - was 1147 yesterday & 679 last week
42 ventilated icu - was 42 yesterday & 36 last week
Local experts suggesting there are signs the cases in Scotland may be peaking.
Patients near dobled in a week but ventilated up by 16% only - much as we have seen in England.
5 deaths - was 3 last week
16,103 cases - was 15,849 last week
26,9% positivity - was 28.9% last week
1223 patients - was 1147 yesterday & 679 last week
42 ventilated icu - was 42 yesterday & 36 last week
Local experts suggesting there are signs the cases in Scotland may be peaking.
Patients near dobled in a week but ventilated up by 16% only - much as we have seen in England.
Healdplace
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334 all settings deaths
316 in England - was 38 last week - but VERY misleading as explained in the England Hospital data earlier - 5 days data is included. So not a straight comparison
Hope the media notice
194,747 cases
150,232 in England - up 1507 on yesterday's 148,725 & up 11,945 on last week's 138,287
Certainly not jumping up a lot now. We my be approaching the ceiling hopefully.
316 in England - was 38 last week - but VERY misleading as explained in the England Hospital data earlier - 5 days data is included. So not a straight comparison
Hope the media notice
194,747 cases
150,232 in England - up 1507 on yesterday's 148,725 & up 11,945 on last week's 138,287
Certainly not jumping up a lot now. We my be approaching the ceiling hopefully.
Healdplace
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NORTHERN IRELAND CASES BY AGE TODAY FROM THE 50,250 OVER PAST 7 DAYS
THE OVER 60s ARE CREEPING UP AND THE OVER 80s HAVE QUADRUPLED OVER CHRISTMAS.
THE REASON IS OBVIOUS AS I HAVE BEEN POSTING HERE OVER PAST FEW DAYS> THE CARE HOME OUTBREAK IS RAPIDLY SPREADING - PRESUMABLY FROM FAMILY VISITS OVER THE PAST FORTNIGHT.
STILL THE LOWEST TWO GROUPS BUT AS A PERCENTAGE ARE WELL UP ON WHERE THEY WERE - FROM BELOW 5% to APPROACHING 9% IN TWO WEEKS.
THE GENERATIONL MIXING OF THE HOLIDAYS WAS ALWAYS GOING TO TEST HOW OMICRON BEHAVES IN THE OLDER MORE VULNERABLE AGES. HOPEFULLY IT HOLDS UP BUT WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT FOR SURE.
AND IS THIS SAME PATTERN HAPPENING IN THE OTHER THREE NATIONS TOO - As WE ONLY HAVE NI PROVIDING GOOD DATA ON THIS DAY TO DAY?
BlueAnorak
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New Year & Bank Holiday deaths catch up day it would appear
Healdplace
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In essence, yes.
See my post earlier this afternoon about the England hospital deaths as to why they are what the are.
There were several days catch up from England . Always the biggest number when that happens.
The deaths trend IS slightly up though over past 2 weeks as that post earlier also explains. But only very modestly. And not close to reflecting the cases or even the increase in patients over the period.
Healdplace
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ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES
Numbers in the North West way down and a bit puzzling. After 8 of the 10 boroughs over 1000 yesterday only Manchester was today. Not sure what is happenning.
REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO
LONDON 22,558 - UP from 21,527 V 22,727 - Back on top and very flat still not really falling at all
SOUTH EAST 20,806 - UP from 18,532 V 19, 849 - Also back over NW and pretty flat over the week
NORTH WEST 19,756 - DOWN from 29,360 V 23,842
North West has very surprising 10K fall to be even well down on last week. Hard to trust these numbers tbh. Might be a big correction tomorrow.
WEST MIDLANDS 18,006 - UP from 13,520 V 12,927 - highest ever total here
EAST 15,142 - DOWN from 15,163 V 16,995 - another down week to week
YORKSHIRE 15,127 - UP from 14,590 V 13,345 - creeping up just as Zoe predicts
EAST MIDLANDS 14,331 - UP from 13,175 V 11,721
SOUTH WEST 10,99 - DOWN from 11, 770 V 10,227
NORTH EAST 9909 - DOWN from 10,252 V 5247
Numbers in the North West way down and a bit puzzling. After 8 of the 10 boroughs over 1000 yesterday only Manchester was today. Not sure what is happenning.
REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO
LONDON 22,558 - UP from 21,527 V 22,727 - Back on top and very flat still not really falling at all
SOUTH EAST 20,806 - UP from 18,532 V 19, 849 - Also back over NW and pretty flat over the week
NORTH WEST 19,756 - DOWN from 29,360 V 23,842
North West has very surprising 10K fall to be even well down on last week. Hard to trust these numbers tbh. Might be a big correction tomorrow.
WEST MIDLANDS 18,006 - UP from 13,520 V 12,927 - highest ever total here
EAST 15,142 - DOWN from 15,163 V 16,995 - another down week to week
YORKSHIRE 15,127 - UP from 14,590 V 13,345 - creeping up just as Zoe predicts
EAST MIDLANDS 14,331 - UP from 13,175 V 11,721
SOUTH WEST 10,99 - DOWN from 11, 770 V 10,227
NORTH EAST 9909 - DOWN from 10,252 V 5247
Healdplace
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GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY
TOTAL 7030
DOWN by 5048 from 12,078 yesterday
A very unexpected large drop that puts in question either yesterday's very hgh data or today's numbers they are so far apart. Those 500 Pop Scores looked very suspiciously high just as some tday look suspiciously low and I suspect this is simply the course correction on those way too high numbers and tomorow will see GM back up around 24/25K where it likely was all 3 days but for testing vagaries.
NW Total 19,756
DOWN from 29, 360 yesterday by 9604
GM 35.6% of the NW total today. Well below the 41% of recent days
Week to week NW was down 4196 & Greater Manchester was down by 2545 of that which is 60.7% of that fall. Well over expectation.
NO RECORDS SET TODAY - AFTER 8 OF THE 10 BOROUGHS OVER 1000 YESTERDAY - TODAY JUST MANCHESTER.
MANCHESTER 1229 - DOWN 587 on day & 854 on week - Pop Score 222 (POP 24,526)
WIGAN 934 - DOWN 231 on day & 301 on week - Pop Score 283 (POP 24,583
STOCKPORT 931 - DOWN 299 on day & 256 on week - Pop Score 316 (POP 23,902) fell less than most and topped it with the only Pop Score over 300 today and so top scored. Lost huge numbers back to Bolton too. Will be in the 24K club tomorrow with most of GM.
SALFORD 724 - DOWN 614 on day & 219 on week - Pop Score 276 (POP 25,655) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic.
TAMESIDE 648 - DOWN 521 on day & UP 551 on week. Pop Score 286 (POP 24,405)
TRAFFORD 612 - DOWN 239 on day & DOWN 210 on week - Pop Score 258 (POP 24,623) Better day here - lowest score in GM but highest ever lowest score!
BOLTON 558 - DOWN 716 on day & 16 on week - Pop Score 193 *- POP 22,919) * Lowest Pop Score in GM both today and across the pandemic - TOOK BACK 123 from Stockport today to go back to 983 ahead! Something was wrong in either Bolton too high or Stockport too low on the numbers over recent days.As those 100 Pop Score gains by SK for 3 days looked well dodgy.
ROCHDALE 483 - DOWN 492 on day & 186 on week. Pop Score 216 (POP 24,414)
OLDHAM 473 - DOWN 712 on day & 291 on week - Pop Score 198. Just enough to enter the 24K club - at just 105 ahead could actually take over from Stockport as the challenger to Bolton for lowest Pop Score across the pandemic as early as tomorrow after not that long ago fighting Rochdale for being the highest! (POP 24,007)
BURY 438 DOWN 627 on day & DOWN 90 on week. Pop Score 230 (POP 24,311)
TOTAL 7030
DOWN by 5048 from 12,078 yesterday
A very unexpected large drop that puts in question either yesterday's very hgh data or today's numbers they are so far apart. Those 500 Pop Scores looked very suspiciously high just as some tday look suspiciously low and I suspect this is simply the course correction on those way too high numbers and tomorow will see GM back up around 24/25K where it likely was all 3 days but for testing vagaries.
NW Total 19,756
DOWN from 29, 360 yesterday by 9604
GM 35.6% of the NW total today. Well below the 41% of recent days
Week to week NW was down 4196 & Greater Manchester was down by 2545 of that which is 60.7% of that fall. Well over expectation.
NO RECORDS SET TODAY - AFTER 8 OF THE 10 BOROUGHS OVER 1000 YESTERDAY - TODAY JUST MANCHESTER.
MANCHESTER 1229 - DOWN 587 on day & 854 on week - Pop Score 222 (POP 24,526)
WIGAN 934 - DOWN 231 on day & 301 on week - Pop Score 283 (POP 24,583
STOCKPORT 931 - DOWN 299 on day & 256 on week - Pop Score 316 (POP 23,902) fell less than most and topped it with the only Pop Score over 300 today and so top scored. Lost huge numbers back to Bolton too. Will be in the 24K club tomorrow with most of GM.
SALFORD 724 - DOWN 614 on day & 219 on week - Pop Score 276 (POP 25,655) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic.
TAMESIDE 648 - DOWN 521 on day & UP 551 on week. Pop Score 286 (POP 24,405)
TRAFFORD 612 - DOWN 239 on day & DOWN 210 on week - Pop Score 258 (POP 24,623) Better day here - lowest score in GM but highest ever lowest score!
BOLTON 558 - DOWN 716 on day & 16 on week - Pop Score 193 *- POP 22,919) * Lowest Pop Score in GM both today and across the pandemic - TOOK BACK 123 from Stockport today to go back to 983 ahead! Something was wrong in either Bolton too high or Stockport too low on the numbers over recent days.As those 100 Pop Score gains by SK for 3 days looked well dodgy.
ROCHDALE 483 - DOWN 492 on day & 186 on week. Pop Score 216 (POP 24,414)
OLDHAM 473 - DOWN 712 on day & 291 on week - Pop Score 198. Just enough to enter the 24K club - at just 105 ahead could actually take over from Stockport as the challenger to Bolton for lowest Pop Score across the pandemic as early as tomorrow after not that long ago fighting Rochdale for being the highest! (POP 24,007)
BURY 438 DOWN 627 on day & DOWN 90 on week. Pop Score 230 (POP 24,311)
Healdplace
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Northern Ireland numbers today over past 7 days. 0 - 19 up nearly 100 all the rest down.
Total for week down by 980 to 49,270
Total for week down by 980 to 49,270
Healdplace
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Sorry, had a busy day.
Quick UK numbers: (v last wk in brackets)
SCOTLAND 18 deaths (9) // 11,360 cases (16,857) // 23.1% positivity (27.1%) // 1267 patients (810) // 43 ventilated (34)
N IRELAND 4 deaths (3) // 6877 cases (4701) // 49,270 weekly cases (31,643) // 179 care home outbreaks (97) // 404 patients (303) // 24 ventilated (26)
WALES 6 deaths (3) // 9213 cases (21,051) // 702 patients (509) // 40 ventilated (35)
Quick UK numbers: (v last wk in brackets)
SCOTLAND 18 deaths (9) // 11,360 cases (16,857) // 23.1% positivity (27.1%) // 1267 patients (810) // 43 ventilated (34)
N IRELAND 4 deaths (3) // 6877 cases (4701) // 49,270 weekly cases (31,643) // 179 care home outbreaks (97) // 404 patients (303) // 24 ventilated (26)
WALES 6 deaths (3) // 9213 cases (21,051) // 702 patients (509) // 40 ventilated (35)
Healdplace
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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY
PATIENTS & VENTILATORS
ENGLAND 16,058 & 762 (Up 399 & Down 7) AND 762 (Down 7)
UK TOTAL 18,431 (up today by 469) AND 869 (Down today by 2)
PATIENTS & VENTILATORS
ENGLAND 16,058 & 762 (Up 399 & Down 7) AND 762 (Down 7)
UK TOTAL 18,431 (up today by 469) AND 869 (Down today by 2)
Can only speak from my own experience obviously, but my job involves working with the public in Oldham and it has absolutely ripped through the community here in the last week or so.
Healdplace
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Thank you. Todays numbers confirm that a bout Oldham. But not alone. GM is Covid central right now. Running a bit behind today as been busy with work. But am catching up.
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY
177 with 40 North West - NO easy comparison but 2 weeks ago was 101 with 15 NW
Hard to know how much is impacted by the distortion created by catch up still over the long holidays. May be next week before we through this impact and can really tell.
But I think there is evidence that deaths are now clearly rising as cases are reaching older patients. Not yet at worrying numbers and certainly nothing like V last January. But noticeable uptick over past 2 weeks.
JAN 1 has 99 deaths at 5 days and the the three days following it are ALL in the 80s already - even 4 Jan after just 2 days on 81. This is the highest day 2 total in a very long time.
4 March was the last time it was higher.
If we are now rising at that stage of the then falling Winter wave we will not peak for another 6 weeks. Let us hope this time Omicron burns through faster.
REGIONS TODAY:- NW was the worst
East 9, London 32, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 26, North West 40, Soith East 23, South West 14
Most by trust:
16 in London North West
NW Trusts:-
10 in Liverpool, 6 each in North Lancashire & Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), 3 each in Bolton & East Lancashire 2 each in Salford & Southport AND 1 each in Blackpool, Chester, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, St Helens, Stockport & Wigan.
By Age:-
20 - 39 (5) 40 - 59 (28), 60 - 79 (74), 80 PLUS (70)
177 with 40 North West - NO easy comparison but 2 weeks ago was 101 with 15 NW
Hard to know how much is impacted by the distortion created by catch up still over the long holidays. May be next week before we through this impact and can really tell.
But I think there is evidence that deaths are now clearly rising as cases are reaching older patients. Not yet at worrying numbers and certainly nothing like V last January. But noticeable uptick over past 2 weeks.
JAN 1 has 99 deaths at 5 days and the the three days following it are ALL in the 80s already - even 4 Jan after just 2 days on 81. This is the highest day 2 total in a very long time.
4 March was the last time it was higher.
If we are now rising at that stage of the then falling Winter wave we will not peak for another 6 weeks. Let us hope this time Omicron burns through faster.
REGIONS TODAY:- NW was the worst
East 9, London 32, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 26, North West 40, Soith East 23, South West 14
Most by trust:
16 in London North West
NW Trusts:-
10 in Liverpool, 6 each in North Lancashire & Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), 3 each in Bolton & East Lancashire 2 each in Salford & Southport AND 1 each in Blackpool, Chester, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, St Helens, Stockport & Wigan.
By Age:-
20 - 39 (5) 40 - 59 (28), 60 - 79 (74), 80 PLUS (70)
Healdplace
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS
HERE IS THE WEEKLY DAY TO DAY TOTALS AT 5 DAYS FOR THE LATEST WEEK (26 DEC - 01 JAN)
76 - 81 - 101 - 55 - 42 - 57 - 99 = TOTAL OF 511
The previous week total was 433 and the week before 508 - though the first one was low due to Christmas and was likel nearer 480 +
Of the next week which will not be complete yet for another 7 days the total is already at this VERY early stage on 282.
For comoparison the exact same days at this point for that week which eded on 508 total just before Christmas stood at this point on 199 (V that 282) - so unless things change the coming week is on course for at least 600 I would say.That would be the highest in 8 weeks.
HERE IS THE WEEKLY DAY TO DAY TOTALS AT 5 DAYS FOR THE LATEST WEEK (26 DEC - 01 JAN)
76 - 81 - 101 - 55 - 42 - 57 - 99 = TOTAL OF 511
The previous week total was 433 and the week before 508 - though the first one was low due to Christmas and was likel nearer 480 +
Of the next week which will not be complete yet for another 7 days the total is already at this VERY early stage on 282.
For comoparison the exact same days at this point for that week which eded on 508 total just before Christmas stood at this point on 199 (V that 282) - so unless things change the coming week is on course for at least 600 I would say.That would be the highest in 8 weeks.