Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Many pundits whom I trust have argued that Putin has no choice - that a Western allied Ukraine, on the very borders of Russia, represents an existential threat to Russia and cannot be tolerated.

I bought into this line for quite awhile. But then, I started thinking...
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1) How likely is it that the West will attack Russia? We're a peace-loving Democracy, loath to engage in warfare. Moreover, Russia is armed with nuclear weapons. It's almost unforeseeable that the West would initiate war with Russia;

2) What about border proximity? Isn't that a legitimate concern? - Frankly, I doubt this very, very much. Maybe 50 years ago this was relevant. But modern warfare is extremely rapid, spanning any border with ease.
===
In short, invasion of Ukraine is mostly popular with the Russian populace. And Putin is making excuses to do so. By all accounts the Crimea annexation boosted Putin's popularity enormously.

Invasion of the Ukraine proper though is bound to be a fish of another kettle altogether. Russian troop casualties are bound to be high and sustained. Prolonged warfare with a high death rate isn't going to be popular.

Thus, I still think that Russia won't invade the Ukraine; this invasion strikes me as a made up pretext designed to curry favor with the Russian populace. But who knows? This is just my opinion - and if Russia does invade the Ukraine - it's somewhat surprising for me - but strikes me as a huge, huge mistake for Putin.

 

[mat]

Many pundits whom I trust have argued that Putin has no choice - that a Western allied Ukraine, on the very borders of Russia, represents an existential threat to Russia and cannot be tolerated.

I bought into this line for quite awhile. But then, I started thinking...
===
1) How likely is it that the West will attack Russia? We're a peace-loving Democracy, loath to engage in warfare. Moreover, Russia is armed with nuclear weapons. It's almost unforeseeable that the West would initiate war with Russia;

2) What about border proximity? Isn't that a legitimate concern? - Frankly, I doubt this very, very much. Maybe 50 years ago this was relevant. But modern warfare is extremely rapid, spanning any border with ease.
===
In short, invasion of Ukraine is mostly popular with the Russian populace. And Putin is making excuses to do so. By all accounts the Crimea annexation boosted Putin's popularity enormously.

Invasion of the Ukraine proper though is bound to be a fish of another kettle altogether. Russian troop casualties are bound to be high and sustained. Prolonged warfare with a high death rate isn't going to be popular.

Thus, I still think that Russia won't invade the Ukraine; this invasion strikes me as a made up pretext designed to curry favor with the Russian populace. But who knows? This is just my opinion - and if Russia does invade the Ukraine - it's somewhat surprising for me - but strikes me as a huge, huge mistake for Putin.

I think you've nailed it.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The fact is that instead of leaving a sort of respectful 'buffer zone' of former eastern Blok nation's NATO and the EU have pushed an expansionist policy East up to Russia's doorstep, and quite fairly Putin has had enough. We are trying to leverage anti russian sentiment in western Ukraine and paint Putin as the warmonger. It's almost like the west has realised we need a new cold war to stimulate the arms industry and boost our economies.....

 

[blueinsa]

It’s all good and well hearing how Putin has Russian forces camped on the Wests border but we also have troops and missiles camped on his.

Both sides have to back down here and realise that a buffer zone is needed between the two sides.

 

[BobKowalski]

The fact is that instead of leaving a sort of respectful 'buffer zone' of former eastern Blok nation's NATO and the EU have pushed an expansionist policy East up to Russia's doorstep, and quite fairly Putin has had enough. We are trying to leverage anti russian sentiment in western Ukraine and paint Putin as the warmonger. It's almost like the west has realised we need a new cold war to stimulate the arms industry and boost our economies.....

I presume these former Eastern bloc nations like Ukraine don’t have a say on what they would like to do?

 

[goalmole]

Surely a pre-emptive strike by the Ukraine is the way to go - Satellite images clearly show that all the Russian military is neatly lined up in orderly rows on their border so even easier to execute than Pear Harbour was, what could possibly go wrong!

You must be going bananas.

 

[mat]

The fact is that instead of leaving a sort of respectful 'buffer zone' of former eastern Blok nation's NATO and the EU have pushed an expansionist policy East up to Russia's doorstep, and quite fairly Putin has had enough. We are trying to leverage anti russian sentiment in western Ukraine and paint Putin as the warmonger. It's almost like the west has realised we need a new cold war to stimulate the arms industry and boost our economies.....

Good post. Lockheed Martin must have a few new toys they want NATO to play with.

Also I noticed no one has answered my question about how they would feel if a traditional enemy built military bases in countries bordering your own.

 

[jaseirai]

It’s all good and well hearing how Putin has Russian forces camped on the Wests border but we also have troops and missiles camped on his.

Both sides have to back down here and realise that a buffer zone is needed between the two sides.

A buffer zone like the Sudetenland. Didn’t work out too well though.

 

[BobKowalski]

Good post. Lockheed Martin must have a few new toys they want NATO to play with.

Also I noticed no one has answered my question about how they would feel if a traditional enemy built military bases in countries bordering your own.

Ukraine isn’t in NATO, has no real physical presence in Ukraine and the US has (so far) ruled out committing ground troops to Ukraine.

And is anybody interested in asking the Ukrainians what they want?

 

[mat]

Ukraine isn’t in NATO, has no real physical presence in Ukraine and the US has (so far) ruled out committing ground troops to Ukraine.

And is anybody interested in asking the Ukrainians what they want?

Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments

Its president bristles at suggestions a "minor" Russian attack may bring a weaker Western response.

www.bbc.co.uk

He's told Biden to stop shit stirring.

 

[mexico1970]

Ukraine isn’t in NATO, has no real physical presence in Ukraine and the US has (so far) ruled out committing ground troops to Ukraine.

And is anybody interested in asking the Ukrainians what they want?

Being counted as a buffer zone, collateral damage can't be what we see in the west as freedom we're "supposed" to be advocates of.

If the Russians decided to re-take their other buffer zones that were behind the iron curtain we will all be in deep shit, I don't know what the answer is but a strong Whitehall headed letter from Boris or a snide comment from Biden probably isn't going to be enough to diffuse the situation.

 

[blueinsa]

A buffer zone like the Sudetenland. Didn’t work out too well though.

We can’t camp troops and arms at the Russian border and then bemoan the Russians doing the same.

 

[BobKowalski]

Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments

Its president bristles at suggestions a "minor" Russian attack may bring a weaker Western response.

www.bbc.co.uk

He's told Biden to stop shit stirring.

No, he told Biden to quit with the ‘limited excursion‘ nonsense. Want to do comments on Putin next? Zelenskiy has said Russia is pushing Ukraine toward Nato. Russian aggression is also pushing Finland and Sweden towards Nato.

What Putin wants is a return to old borders with countries like Belarus, Ukraine run by Russian proxies and under Russian control. Putin has Belarus in the bag after supporting the crackdown on the widespread unrest. What Putin fears is an independent and prosperous Ukraine on his doorstep. A Ukraine benefitting from EU membership is an affront to Russian control and prestige. Russia wants vassal states beholden to it for their existence.

Russia cannot compete economically, so it uses the only lever it has left. Military dominance. This entire dispute is about Russia refusing to let neighbouring countries determine their own future and sod all to do with Nato or any other excuse they wheel out.

If people are happy for Russia to subjugate countries then they should just say so, rather then this tedious whataboutery with Nato, the EU and the US.

 

[BobKowalski]

Being counted as a buffer zone, collateral damage can't be what we see in the west as freedom we're "supposed" to be advocates of.

If the Russians decided to re-take their other buffer zones that were behind the iron curtain we will all be in deep shit, I don't know what the answer is but a strong Whitehall headed letter from Boris or a snide comment from Biden probably isn't going to be enough to diffuse the situation.

Agreed. I‘m not sure what or if anything will defuse the situation. Russia feels it has a ‘right’ to control these countries and in Belarus, Georgia it does. Ukraine though will be a tougher nut to crack and do they stop there? The Baltic states, Poland, Hungary?

Russia can invade Ukraine, but it’s a large country with a large standing army and its own thriving defence industry. Invading will be bloody but it will be the easy part. Holding Ukraine in the face of a hostile citizen population will require a lot of military resource against a background of further economic sanctions.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

No, he told Biden to quit with the ‘limited excursion‘ nonsense. Want to do comments on Putin next? Zelenskiy has said Russia is pushing Ukraine toward Nato. Russian aggression is also pushing Finland and Sweden towards Nato.

What Putin wants is a return to old borders with countries like Belarus, Ukraine run by Russian proxies and under Russian control. Putin has Belarus in the bag after supporting the crackdown on the widespread unrest. What Putin fears is an independent and prosperous Ukraine on his doorstep. A Ukraine benefitting from EU membership is an affront to Russian control and prestige. Russia wants vassal states beholden to it for their existence.

Russia cannot compete economically, so it uses the only lever it has left. Military dominance. This entire dispute is about Russia refusing to let neighbouring countries determine their own future and sod all to do with Nato or any other excuse they wheel out.

If people are happy for Russia to subjugate countries then they should just say so, rather then this tedious whataboutery with Nato, the EU and the US.

Great post

 

[BlueAnorak]

The West is totally fucked.
Beholden to Russian gas and Chinese Tat.
I just despair at Germany's current reaction to blatant Russian aggression. No defensive weapon sales, no ammunition sales, no transport of these things through it's airspace.
The US isn't great either with Biden's wishy washy words.
I bet Ukraine wishes it had kept some of it's nukes. The treaty it signed with Russia and the US is very not worth the paper it is written on.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

We can’t camp troops and arms at the Russian border and then bemoan the Russians doing the same.

That is a terrible argument.

There is no evidence at all that NATO are planning to invade and annex Russia if Russian troops weren't there. There is plenty of evidence that Russia is planning on invading Ukraine further.

 

[mat]

The West is totally fucked.
Beholden to Russian gas and Chinese Tat.
I just despair at Germany's current reaction to blatant Russian aggression. No defensive weapon sales, no ammunition sales, no transport of these things through it's airspace.
The US isn't great either with Biden's wishy washy words.
I bet Ukraine wishes it had kept some of it's nukes. The treaty it signed with Russia and the US is very not worth the paper it is written on.

One of Germany's military chiefs was forced to resign because his narrative on Putin and Russia doesn't fit the one being creates by the US/NATO.

 

[BlueAnorak]

One of Germany's military chiefs was forced to resign because his narrative on Putin and Russia doesn't fit the one being creates by the US/NATO.

Yes I'm sure Ukraine will enjoy the yoke of Russian Suzzeranty.
How many will die for that to happen?
I guess the will of the Ukrainian people is irrelevant to you.

 

[Indaparkside]

America has advised non essential staff to leave Ukraine an attack is imminent