Russian invasion of Ukraine

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Invasion of the Ukraine is perfect in that sense and is popular among Russians. They can forget about COVID for awhile, reveling in the might of Mother Russia.
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It's what the Tsars always did. Fight a "short and victorious" war to deflect from criticism at home.

It has to be both short and victorious though, otherwise it adds to the ruler's problems.
 
It will probably end up with Russia annexing the separatist held areas in the Donbas (the pink bits below) without anything more than a bit of a skirmish.

Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg
 
SWP's back said:
They don’t though do they?

Do you honestly think Putin thinks for one minute that NATO and the US are ever going to invade Russia or put her sovereignty into question? Of course you don’t because of course he doesn’t. Therefore where bases are is also immaterial.

NATO does not have anywhere with 350,000 mobilised troops on his literal border.
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Really?
Try reading up about the Cuban missile crisis in 1963 if where bases are don’t matter.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I'm guessing that if they do invade the Russians will carry out air strikes for several weeks before any land invasion. Ukraine has a very big army and lots of armour. Much more so than what Putin has encamped on it's borders, so it would suicidal for the Russians to pile in without destroying the Ukranians air defences and air force first, Like the Allies did in the gulf wars.

I just can't believe this is going to happen anytime soon as I just can't see what Putin gains from an invasion. Pariah status, and the loss of foreign investments and frozen assets in exchange for no doubt a long drawn out war of attrition doesn't sound that appealing to me.
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I hope you are right but I remember my parents telling me (both sadly deceased) that right up until Germany invaded Poland in 1939 no one in this country expected anything to happen. They thought it was just bluff. At that point they didn't realise that Hitler was a maniac and neither did most of the German population. I recently read a biography of a former high-ranking German officer. In the book he claimed that most of his colleagues believed right up till the last minute that it would not happen.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
I counter with Iran air flight 655 in 1988.
290 innocent civilians murdered by a US destroyer shooting it down.

check.

your move.
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KAL007. Pointless exercise anyway.

The difference between MH17 and IR655 is that in spite of overwhelming evidence Russia have denied responsibility for MH17.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
I hope you are right but I remember my parents telling me (both sadly deceased) that right up until Germany invaded Poland in 1939 no one in this country expected anything to happen. They thought it was just bluff. At that point they didn't realise that Hitler was a maniac and neither did most of the German population. I recently read a biography of a former high-ranking German officer. In the book he claimed that most of his colleagues believed right up till the last minute that it would not happen.
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The Daily Telegraph's correspondent in Germany was a young Claire Hollingsworth. She witnessed a huge tank build up in a border area. She sent a dispatch to the paper who thought it was so far fetched they declined to run the story. The tanks invaded a week later and Hollingsworth went on to be a distinguished foreign correspondent.
 
KS55 said:
The Daily Telegraph's correspondent in Germany was a young Claire Hollingsworth. She witnessed a huge tank build up in a border area. She sent a dispatch to the paper who thought it was so far fetched they declined to run the story. The tanks invaded a week later and Hollingsworth went on to be a distinguished foreign correspondent.
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Yes. The book I mentioned is quite well known and is called "Soldat." It was written by someone called Siegfried Knappe who rose to be a key officer in the German army on Hitler's staff. He says that they thought they were just going on exercise until just a few hours before the invasion started. He says no one could believe that Hitler would be crazy enough to start a war with the rest of Europe. The book gives a great insight into how people can just sleepwalk into a war because of the stupidity of their leaders.

Siegfried Knappe - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
mosssideblue said:
So what are these dire and crippling sanctions that the UK can impose should Putin have a brain fart?
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Talk of cutting all Russia from swift. They’ll cut off the gas which will fuck us both. Don’t really see what Russia has to gain.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
Really?
Try reading up about the Cuban missile crisis in 1963 if where bases are don’t matter.
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TBF that was in a time before ICBMs, so from Cuba Russia could nuclear strike the US quite possibly limiting any response by the US. Now where missiles are based is largely irrelevant to mutual destruction outcomes should some lunatics decide to press the button.
 
metalblue said:
TBF that was in a time before ICBMs, so from Cuba Russia could nuclear strike the US quite possibly limiting any response by the US. Now where missiles are based is largely irrelevant to mutual destruction outcomes should some lunatics decide to press the button.
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It's makes me sick thinking one person feeling insecure about themselves could end human existence.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I'm guessing that if they do invade the Russians will carry out air strikes for several weeks before any land invasion. Ukraine has a very big army and lots of armour. Much more so than what Putin has encamped on it's borders, so it would suicidal for the Russians to pile in without destroying the Ukranians air defences and air force first, Like the Allies did in the gulf wars.

I just can't believe this is going to happen anytime soon as I just can't see what Putin gains from an invasion. Pariah status, and the loss of foreign investments and frozen assets in exchange for no doubt a long drawn out war of attrition doesn't sound that appealing to me.
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It doesn't make any sense for them to invade but he has cornered himself now.. he walks he looks weak and Putin is a humongous ego with a lot of pride he would rather send thousand to their death than have his insecurities be challenged.
 
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