Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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Phil1 said:
Were we supposed to bake banana bread? Fuck, somebody should have told me!! I just sunbathed, smoked more weed than usual and shagged a lot.
Can you send me the ingredients please?
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Banana bread baking can easily be substituted for another activity. Mine was/is booze.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Thank god for the tories steering us through it, never thought I'd say that.
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Yeah, just imagine we we had a sensible government like Germany who have almost half the death toll we do and less economic fallout too.

What a fucking disaster that would have been.

Take the partisan stuff to the politics thread.
 
SWP's back said:
That’s bollocks. Both “best” and “worst case” scenarios used case fatality rates from Delta for Omicron despite RSA data showing that to massively overestimate the lethality of omicron.

There is no Dr Hindsight needed, about a dozen of us were pointing that out in November and arguing that lockdowns were pointless and unneeded for omicron with a highly vaccinated population.
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Omicron is doing a hell of a lot of lifting in your argument.

If it had been a severe variant, we would have been royally fucked.

Fortunately, it wasn’t.

A dozen soothsayers on this thread looking at trends in live South African data which showed signs of it not being as severe, without having the hospitalisation data 3-4 weeks down the line made your predictions before mid December dangerous, not visionary.

But yet again, you are calling our modellers out with the benefit of hindsight. It proved you right in the end, not during Omicron.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Their best case model for omicron was for between 3000 to 10000 hospitalizations in England alone daily. The other two scenarios they did for omicron resulted in much higher numbers. We actually reached a peak of just over 2000 admissions. How can you say they modelled all scenarios, when the actual data falls well below their best case?
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<citation needed>
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
They assumed omicron was as severe as delta despite the data from SA indicating it wasn't, they considered this data then dismissed it as not applicable to the UK. That was where they went wrong. Either way it was a mistake
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And I disagree. Doing a projection with that assumption (and the caveat of the severity is very clearly called out) is one of the factors that led to the increased speed of the booster rollout, which has already shown to be worth it.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
The clear winner of The Covid Doomsday Award goes to The Guardian:

The main headline just before Christmas was 'Scientists Predict 6000 Covid Deaths Daily'. The article went on to refer to this number of deaths each day with no detail as to how it was arrived at and no caveats about why this might not actually be the outcome.

What that actually referred to was a model produced by UCL in which the worst predicted outcome was that (the model itself was ridiculously pessimistic). I assume that worst case scenario was based on Omicron being far more transmissible than Delta (which it is of course), being as severe or worse (which it isn't), vaccines providing no protection whatsoever (they are very effective) and hospitals being completely overwhelmed, with carts rumbling through the streets picking up the dead as with the Black Death.

A lot of this is blatantly political so truth and objectivity goes out of the window.
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The media have been complete and utter cunts throughout this pandemic. Be it left-wing, right-wing, or supposedly neutral, the lack of balance has been nothing short of astonishing. Often it would take the form of Doomsday scenarios and talk of severe restrictions but sometimes - if such measures did get introduced - they'd then go the opposite way and demand "Why have we gone into lockdown?"
As for the sensationalism of worst-case modelling such as the example you've cited - that's a fucking disgrace and has far reaching consequences in terms of fucking with people's heads.
 
meltonblue said:
And I disagree. Doing a projection with that assumption (and the caveat of the severity is very clearly called out) is one of the factors that led to the increased speed of the booster rollout, which has already shown to be worth it.
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Moaning about the modellers when we didn’t lockdown and did the correct thing in accelerating the booster program.

Either our government are visionaries (which we have seen that they are not), or they took the advice of our epidemiologists and modellers and got it right.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
The clear winner of The Covid Doomsday Award goes to The Guardian:

The main headline just before Christmas was 'Scientists Predict 6000 Covid Deaths Daily'. The article went on to refer to this number of deaths each day with no detail as to how it was arrived at and no caveats about why this might not actually be the outcome.

What that actually referred to was a model produced by UCL in which the worst predicted outcome was that (the model itself was ridiculously pessimistic). I assume that worst case scenario was based on Omicron being far more transmissible than Delta (which it is of course), being as severe or worse (which it isn't), vaccines providing no protection whatsoever (they are very effective) and hospitals being completely overwhelmed, with carts rumbling through the streets picking up the dead as with the Black Death.

A lot of this is blatantly political so truth and objectivity goes out of the window.
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I remember reading that article, they buried the more optimistic model in the same article too, which was already looking more like the more realistic one at the time anyway.

The one caveat is I do wonder how much pressure the government put themselves on the media to go with the worst case as by doing that they increased the likelihood of them not having to implement any restrictions themselves. If you take December, there was a huge shift in behaviour with Christmas parties being cancelled all over as well as things like increased mask compliance. That did also allow for the extra few weeks to get more booster jabs done.

Doesn’t make it right in terms of reporting though.
 
Thankfully we've seen the last of these scientists..well until the enquiry if we ever get one
 
www.spectator.co.uk

Sage scenarios vs actual: an update | The Spectator

‘Deaths could hit 6,000 a day,’ reported the newspapers on 17 December. A day later documents for the 99th meeting of Sage were released which said that, without restrictions over and above ‘Plan B’, deaths would range from 600 to 6,000 a day. A summary of Sage advice, prepared for the Cabinet...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Omicron is doing a hell of a lot of lifting in your argument.

If it had been a severe variant, we would have been royally fucked.

Fortunately, it wasn’t.

A dozen soothsayers on this thread looking at trends in live South African data which showed signs of it not being as severe, without having the hospitalisation data 3-4 weeks down the line made your predictions before mid December dangerous, not visionary.

But yet again, you are calling our modellers out with the benefit of hindsight. It proved you right in the end, not during Omicron.
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Because it was Omicron so of course it’s doing the heavy lifting in the sentence. It’s the whole point of the fucking sentence. IT WAS OMICRON. IT WAS NOT DELTA. South Africa already had a month of data on how severe (or should we say mild) it was. SAGE ignored that and lobbied for a lockdown before Christmas.

There’s literally no point talking about ‘what if it was a more severe strain’ as it was and there was data around showing that. Did you not post on this thread in November and December?
 
SWP's back said:
Because it was Omicron so of course it’s doing the heavy lifting in the sentence. It’s the whole point of the fucking sentence. IT WAS OMICRON. IT WAS NOT DELTA. South Africa already had a month of data on how severe (or should we say mild) it was. SAGE ignored that and lobbied for a lockdown before Christmas.

There’s literally no point talking about ‘what if it was a more severe strain’ as it was and there was data around showing that. Did you not post on this thread in November and December?
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So you’ve no problem with the modellers apart from with Omicron?

I don’t even know why we’re having this debate. It’s done with.

Maybe you should switch your ire to weather forecasters next time they predict 100mph winds and on.y 85mph ones arrive.
 
splinter said:
Thankfully we've seen the last of these scientists..well until the enquiry if we ever get one
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Hopefully we have, because that will mean there are no new variants of concern. However if there are any new variants we will be using scientists, not people sat around on the internet or some random opinions from down the pub.
 
Rammy Blue said:
I’m glad I refrain in the main from posting in this thread nowadays, always a chuckle catching up on it though, same shit from the same few.
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Its incredible. A week it so ago this thread fucked off to page 2. I was delighted. I thought it was a sign of covid generally fucking off in life, which for most it has i think.

but no. One or two loons on here wont let that happen. Whilst covid can make them feel important and relevant theyll keep banging on about it .

weird
As
Fuck
 
marcus said:
Its incredible. A week it so ago this thread fucked off to page 2. I was delighted. I thought it was a sign of covid generally fucking off in life, which for most it has i think.

but no. One or two loons on here wont let that happen. Whilst covid can make them feel important and relevant theyll keep banging on about it .

weird
As
Fuck
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It would die a death if the anti SAGE frothers could keep their mouths shut.

They can’t, so the same debate/argument recurs.
 
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